TACTIX Simulation Report #8, simulations updated 8 November 2026: Arsenal won the Premier League title in 70.6% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season.
Issue #8 · week 2026-W46 · simulations updated 8 November 2026 · 10,000 season simulations per league
The TACTIX Simulation Report is the weekly, numbered record of what our season simulations say — and how they moved. Every number below is the same number the live Supercomputer hub shows; the deltas compare this run with the previous one.
Premier League Title Odds Simulation #8: Three Lines You Can Quote
- Arsenal won the Premier League title in 70.6% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season. (TACTIX Simulation Report #8)
- The gap at the top: Arsenal 70.6% vs Manchester City 21.6% — a 49.1-point difference in title likelihood. (TACTIX Simulation Report #8)
- 3 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations. (TACTIX Simulation Report #8)
Who Is Favourite to Win the Premier League 2026/27?
Arsenal are favourites: they won the title in 70.6% of 10,000 simulated seasons, as of 8 November 2026, ahead of Manchester City on 21.6%. The table below gives every club’s title, Top 4 and relegation chances and the change since the last run.
Premier League 2026/27 — The Full Movement Table
| # | Club | Title | Δ | Top 4 | Relegation | Avg pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 70.6% | +5.9pp | 99.7% | 0% | 82.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 21.6% | −8.5pp | 96.5% | 0% | 75.1 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7.1% | +2.7pp | 87.0% | 0% | 70 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 0.3% | +0.1pp | 34.9% | <0.1% | 60.7 |
| 5 | Brentford | 0.1% | −0.1pp | 20.2% | 0.2% | 57.4 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 0.1% | · | 15.5% | 0.3% | 56.3 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | <0.1% | · | 10.8% | 0.5% | 54.7 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | <0.1% | · | 10.7% | 0.6% | 54.7 |
| 9 | Everton | <0.1% | · | 7.5% | 1.0% | 53.3 |
| 10 | Leeds | <0.1% | · | 7.7% | 1.1% | 53.2 |
| 11 | Manchester United | 0% | · | 5.1% | 1.7% | 51.6 |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | <0.1% | · | 1.9% | 4.7% | 48.5 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 0% | · | 1.2% | 6.3% | 47.8 |
| 14 | Fulham | 0% | · | 0.7% | 12.1% | 45 |
| 15 | Hull City | 0% | · | 0.3% | 14.1% | 44.1 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 0% | · | 0.2% | 22.4% | 42.2 |
| 17 | Ipswich | 0% | · | <0.1% | 40.1% | 39.3 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 0% | · | 0% | 47.5% | 38 |
| 19 | Coventry | 0% | · | 0% | 72.4% | 34.2 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 0% | · | 0% | 75.0% | 33.8 |
Club by Club
One line per club, for the beat writer who covers exactly one of them:
- Arsenal (1/20 by simulation) — title 70.6% (+5.9pp on the last run), top four 99.7%, averaging 82.1 pts.
- Manchester City (2/20 by simulation) — title 21.6% (−8.5pp on the last run), top four 96.5%, averaging 75.1 pts.
- Brighton (3/20 by simulation) — title 7.1% (+2.7pp on the last run), top four 87.0%, averaging 70 pts.
- Liverpool (4/20 by simulation) — top four 34.9% (title +0.1pp), relegation <0.1%, averaging 60.7 pts.
- Brentford (5/20 by simulation) — top four 20.2% (title −0.1pp), relegation 0.2%, averaging 57.4 pts.
- Chelsea (6/20 by simulation) — top four 15.5%, relegation 0.3%, averaging 56.3 pts.
- Bournemouth (7/20 by simulation) — top four 10.8%, relegation 0.5%, averaging 54.7 pts.
- Aston Villa (8/20 by simulation) — top four 10.7%, relegation 0.6%, averaging 54.7 pts.
- Everton (9/20 by simulation) — top four 7.5%, relegation 1.0%, averaging 53.3 pts.
- Leeds (10/20 by simulation) — top four 7.7%, relegation 1.1%, averaging 53.2 pts.
- Manchester United (11/20 by simulation) — top four 5.1%, relegation 1.7%, averaging 51.6 pts.
- Nottingham Forest (12/20 by simulation) — top four 1.9%, relegation 4.7%, averaging 48.5 pts.
- Newcastle (13/20 by simulation) — relegation 6.3% (+0.1pp), top-half push 1.2%, averaging 47.8 pts.
- Fulham (14/20 by simulation) — relegation 12.1% (+0.2pp), top-half push 0.7%, averaging 45 pts.
- Hull City (15/20 by simulation) — relegation 14.1%, top-half push 0.3%, averaging 44.1 pts.
- Tottenham (16/20 by simulation) — relegation 22.4% (+0.4pp), top-half push 0.2%, averaging 42.2 pts.
- Ipswich (17/20 by simulation) — relegation 40.1% (+5.7pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 39.3 pts.
- Sunderland (18/20 by simulation) — relegation 47.5% (−10.6pp), top-half push 0%, averaging 38 pts.
- Coventry (19/20 by simulation) — relegation 72.4% (+1.3pp), top-half push 0%, averaging 34.2 pts.
- Crystal Palace (20/20 by simulation) — relegation 75.0% (+7.3pp), top-half push 0%, averaging 33.8 pts.
Movers Elsewhere
- Bundesliga (Austria): Rapid Vienna — title 50.1% (−8.6pp).
- Challenger Pro League: AS Eupen — top spots 20.4% (+4.8pp).
- Jupiler Pro League: Club Brugge KV — title 51.6% (−6.1pp).
- Série A: Bahia — top spots 36.0% (−0.5pp).
- Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart — top spots 30.5% (+3.5pp).
- Championship: Birmingham — top spots 11.3% (+1.0pp).
- Super League (China): Beijing Guoan — title 80.2% (−0.6pp).
- Superliga (Denmark): AC Horsens — top spots 36.3% (−14.7pp).
- League One: Huddersfield — top spots 56.4% (−1.2pp).
- League Two: Swindon Town — top spots 9.6% (+1.7pp).
- National League: Boreham Wood — title 95.8% (−0.3pp).
- Ligue 2: Saint Etienne — title 61.3% (+3.2pp).
- 2. Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg — top spots 31.9% (−7.4pp).
- Super League 1 (Greece): Aris Thessalonikis — top spots 75.7% (+9.5pp).
- Serie B: Modena — top spots 20.4% (+5.8pp).
- La Liga: Real Betis — top spots 68.0% (+5.2pp).
- Ligue 1: Lille — top spots 44.3% (+11.7pp).
- Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven — title 64.5% (+10.2pp).
- Eliteserien: Bodo/Glimt — title 50.5% (+2.4pp).
- Ekstraklasa: Legia Warszawa — title 1.5% (−1.9pp).
- Primeira Liga: Sporting CP — top spots 41.7% (+3.7pp).
- Saudi Pro League: Al-Ahli Jeddah — top spots 25.2% (−0.8pp).
- Serie A: AC Milan — top spots 40.0% (+7.5pp).
- Segunda División: Almeria — top spots 51.5% (+11.0pp).
- Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF — title 75.9% (+31.3pp).
- Süper Lig: Trabzonspor — top spots 43.5% (+5.2pp).
- Premier League (Ukraine): Shakhtar Donetsk — title 70.6% (−5.3pp).
- Cymru Premier: Barry Town — top spots 62.9% (−1.2pp).
Model vs the Market, This Week
The model’s settled hit rate against the bookmaker favourite, from the live accuracy leaderboard (last-12-months window, all leagues, losers included):
| Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Model − favourite | Δ model since last issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 11,579 | 74.5% | 79.1% | -4.6 pp | +0.2 pp (+548 picks) |
| Both teams to score | 11,534 | 54.4% | 56.3% | -1.9 pp | 0.0 pp (+548 picks) |
| Total goals (over / under) | 11,527 | 94.8% | 95.1% | -0.3 pp | 0.0 pp (+549 picks) |
Hit rate answers “who picks winners more often” — it is not a profitability claim; probabilities are odds to weigh, not promises. Definitions and every league’s cells: the leaderboard.
Method, in One Paragraph
Each covered league is simulated thousands of times from the current table and remaining fixtures, using the same calibrated match model that prices every prediction on the site. Probabilities are model estimates — odds to weigh, not promises. The live, always-current version of every table on this page is at tactix.football/supercomputer; embeddable versions are free at /widgets with the credit intact. Cite this issue as “TACTIX Simulation Report #8”.
How to Read This Issue
Each percentage is the share of simulated seasons in which a club finished in that position, so a club on ten per cent for the title won it in about one season in ten. The movement column compares this run with the previous one, and a small move can be noise rather than news, because every run draws a fresh set of seasons from the same model. Averages sit beside the percentages so a reader can see the typical finish as well as the tails. The simulations take the current table and the fixtures still to be played, they do not know about injuries announced after the run, and each issue is stamped with the date of the run it uses.
More from TACTIX: the accuracy page shows how the model has scored, and the Simulation Report page holds the latest issue and the archive.
TACTIX Simulation Report #8 — FAQs
How many simulations does the report use?
10,000 simulated seasons per league, re-run from the current table and the remaining fixtures; this issue uses the run of 8 November 2026.
Who is most likely to be relegated?
Crystal Palace: relegated in 75.0% of the 10,000 simulated seasons as of 8 November 2026. The table above has every club’s figure.
Where is the live, always-current version?
On the TACTIX Supercomputer, which shows the same numbers as this issue and updates after every run.
Sources and data: the live scoreboard · the Supercomputer · the open data catalogue. Cite as “TACTIX (tactix.football)”.
18+. TACTIX simulations are model estimates — not betting advice or guarantees. Please gamble responsibly — support at BeGambleAware.org.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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