Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund prediction

Bundesliga · · Allianz Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bayern München · Borussia Dortmund · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund, Bundesliga on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 17:30 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.26 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 478 of 727 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 31 October (kick-off 17:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Bayern München have scored 25 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Bayern München are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Bayern München have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

14 of Bayern München’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (93%). Both teams scored in 11 of Bayern München’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). At home, Bayern München have seven wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.75 points per game, scoring 4.88 and conceding 0.75. Bayern München have conceded six goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Nine of Borussia Dortmund’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Borussia Dortmund’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.29 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 0.57. Borussia Dortmund have scored 12 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Borussia Dortmund have conceded four goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs.

Bayern München (first) and Borussia Dortmund (second) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayern München the stronger side, 213 rating points above Borussia Dortmund (Bayern München 2039, Borussia Dortmund 1826, after at least 313 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Bayern München are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Borussia Dortmund. The most recent meeting, on 22 August 2026, finished Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München.

Team news

Predicted Bayern München XI (4-2-3-1): J. Urbig, J. Stanišić, J. Tah, D. Upamecano, N. Brown, T. Bischof, M. Olise, L. Karl, A. Pavlović, I. Saibari, H. Kane — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Olise (10.4 per match over 12 appearances, 12 goals and six assists) and Harry Kane (7.5 per match over 12 appearances, 10 goals and seven assists) have been Bayern München’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayern München (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Olise averages 3.4 key passes per 90 over 1978 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Harry Kane averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 2041 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Borussia Dortmund XI (3-4-2-1): G. Kobel, W. Anton, N. Schlotterbeck, K. Gadou, F. Nmecha, J. Ryerson, J. Veerman, D. Svensson, J. Bellingham, M. Beier, S. Guirassy — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nico Schlotterbeck (5.4 per match over seven appearances, one goal) and Waldemar Anton (4.6 per match over 13 appearances, one assist) have been Borussia Dortmund’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Borussia Dortmund (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nico Schlotterbeck averages 2.5 tackles per 90 over 1202 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances. Waldemar Anton averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 1401 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga · Allianz Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Bayern München 3 · draws 2 · Borussia Dortmund 1 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bayern München 3W 2D 0L · Borussia Dortmund 3W 1D 1L

Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3.88 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.38 / 0.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 4
over 8 matches
8.5 / 7.38
Corners
against 3.75 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
9.75 / 5.38
Shots on target
against 3.5 / 3.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.88
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBayern München for / againstLineBorussia Dortmund for / against
Goals scored
3.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
4our book
1.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
8.5 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
7.38 for · 3.63 against n 8
Shots
23 for · 9.88 against n 8
19.5standard
14.88 for · 11 against n 8
Shots on target
9.75 for · 3.5 against n 8
8.5standard
5.38 for · 3.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 8.38 against n 8
21.5standard
11.13 for · 9.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.88 against n 8

Bayern München

Bayern München Goalkeeper

Bayern München — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Neuer789621 min142 /9020.3 /9000 /90
J. Urbig690540 min111.8 /9061 /9000 /90
Bayern München — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Neuer n 885.1
1.95/3
J. Urbig n 882.5
24/3

Bayern München Defensive

Bayern München — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Stanišić1165718 min91.1 /9040.5 /9030.4 /90303.8 /9050.6 /9000 /90
A. Davies1160662 min121.6 /9081.1 /9010.1 /90516.9 /9020.3 /9000 /90
D. Upamecano1081810 min262.9 /90111.2 /9030.3 /90596.6 /90111.2 /9020.2 /90
J. Tah1080801 min111.2 /9080.9 /9020.2 /90323.6 /90111.2 /9010.1 /90
N. Brown1064635 min101.4 /9000 /9010.1 /90233.3 /9060.9 /9010.1 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Bayern München — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Kane n 884.5
0.54/0
0.54/0
—
M. Olise n 885.1
0.32/0
3.28/7
—
I. Saibari n 853.5
1.14/1
0.42/0
—
L. Díaz n 866.5
1.76/4
0.52/1
—
J. Stanišić n 868
0.73/1
0.83/1
—
See more players · Pro
Bayern München — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
H. Kane n 884.5
0.43/0
M. Olise n 885.1
1.35/2
I. Saibari n 853.5
1.76/2
L. Díaz n 866.5
0.72/2
J. Stanišić n 868
0.84/1
See more players · Pro

Bayern München Attacking

Bayern München — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
H. Kane1281973 min100.9 /9070.6 /90423.9 /90201.8 /90252.3 /90100.9 /90
M. Olise1281972 min121.1 /9060.6 /90444.1 /90302.8 /90474.4 /90363.3 /90
I. Saibari1250601 min30.4 /9030.4 /90253.7 /90101.5 /90131.9 /90131.9 /90
L. Díaz1172793 min50.6 /9010.1 /90202.3 /90151.7 /90192.2 /90171.9 /90
J. Kimmich1082816 min00 /9040.4 /9080.9 /9030.3 /90182 /9010.1 /90
See more players · Pro
Bayern München — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Kane n 884.5
4.18/8
2.18/4
M. Olise n 885.1
4.18/8
2.98/6
I. Saibari n 853.5
4.67/7
1.95/3
L. Díaz n 866.5
2.27/3
1.97/2
J. Stanišić n 868
0.53/0
0.21/0
See more players · Pro
Bayern München — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Kane n 884.5
1.16/2
0.95/2
M. Olise n 885.1
1.25/3
0.75/0
I. Saibari n 853.5
0.63/0
0.21/0
L. Díaz n 866.5
0.72/1
0.21/0
J. Stanišić n 868
00/0
0.21/0
See more players · Pro

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund Goalkeeper

Borussia Dortmund — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Kobel12891071 min352.9 /9080.7 /9000 /90
A. Meyer19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Borussia Dortmund — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Borussia Dortmund before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Kobel n 890
2.46/4
A. Meyer n 890
2.64/4

Borussia Dortmund Defensive

Borussia Dortmund — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
W. Anton13881138 min322.5 /90362.8 /9060.5 /90816.4 /90181.4 /9020.2 /90
Kouakou Joane Gadou1180882 min191.9 /9080.8 /9020.2 /90394 /9070.7 /9020.2 /90
N. Schlotterbeck788617 min182.6 /90121.8 /9050.7 /90466.7 /9020.3 /9010.1 /90
R. Bensebaïni483333 min92.4 /9071.9 /9020.5 /90205.4 /9030.8 /9000 /90
F. Mané346138 min32 /9032 /9000 /9053.3 /9021.3 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro
Borussia Dortmund — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Borussia Dortmund before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
W. Anton n 890
1.56/4
1.36/3
—
D. Svensson n 876.8
0.62/1
0.94/2
—
F. Nmecha n 870.6
1.36/2
2.16/3
—
G. Kobel n 890
00/0
00/0
—
S. Guirassy n 879.8
1.66/4
1.16/2
—
See more players · Pro
Borussia Dortmund — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Borussia Dortmund before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
W. Anton n 890
3.18/6
D. Svensson n 876.8
1.54/2
F. Nmecha n 870.6
1.86/3
S. Guirassy n 879.8
00/0
J. Ryerson n 877.4
0.73/2
See more players · Pro

Borussia Dortmund Attacking

Borussia Dortmund — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Guirassy1281968 min70.7 /9020.2 /90343.2 /90181.7 /90171.6 /9020.2 /90
M. Beier1168743 min20.2 /9000 /90161.9 /9040.5 /90101.2 /9020.2 /90
Fábio Silva1146504 min40.7 /9020.4 /90183.2 /90101.8 /9081.4 /9091.6 /90
Konstantinos Karetsas747331 min00 /9010.3 /9092.4 /9051.4 /9061.6 /9092.4 /90
S. Inacio361182 min21 /9000 /9052.5 /9021 /9042 /9010.5 /90
See more players · Pro
Borussia Dortmund — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Borussia Dortmund before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
W. Anton n 890
0.54/0
00/0
D. Svensson n 876.8
0.43/0
0.11/0
F. Nmecha n 870.6
1.95/5
1.15/2
G. Kobel n 890
00/0
00/0
S. Guirassy n 879.8
3.48/6
1.65/3
See more players · Pro
Borussia Dortmund — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Borussia Dortmund before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
W. Anton n 890
00/0
00/0
D. Svensson n 876.8
0.11/0
00/0
F. Nmecha n 870.6
0.31/1
00/0
G. Kobel n 890
00/0
00/0
S. Guirassy n 879.8
0.42/1
0.11/0
See more players · Pro

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Bayern MünchenDWDWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Borussia DortmundLDWWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Bayern München 3 · 2 draws · Borussia Dortmund 1 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2026-08-22 Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München
  • 2026-02-28 Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern München
  • 2025-10-18 Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund
  • 2025-04-12 Bayern München 2–2 Borussia Dortmund
  • 2024-11-30 Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayern München
  • 2024-03-30 Bayern Munich 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
League standing · 2026/27
Bayern München#1 pos17 pts7 pl+19 GD
Borussia Dortmund#2 pos17 pts7 pl+8 GD
Goals per game
Bayern München scored3.57
Borussia Dortmund scored1.71
Bayern München conceded0.86
Borussia Dortmund conceded0.57

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 246 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
Pro
Win probability & value
Pro
Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.26 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
In their last 6 meetings, Bayern München won 3, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
Recent form — Bayern München 3W 2D 0L; Borussia Dortmund 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+