FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen result

Full-time · FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:30 BST · MEWA ARENA

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · Bayer Leverkusen · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen — Bayer Leverkusen won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.50 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.8% of 481 landed (95% range 64.5–72.8%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 596 of 928 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: FSV Mainz 05 2.23, Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Bayer Leverkusen won 4–3 at MEWA ARENA in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October. Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 2–2 at half-time. The goals — Bayer Leverkusen: Robert Andrich (5’), Patrik Schick (9’, assisted by Aleix García), Jarell Quansah (55’) and Moussa Diaby (65’, assisted by Afonso Moreira); FSV Mainz 05: Anthony Caci (33’; 42’, assisted by Nadiem Amiri) and Benedict Hollerbach (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s seven key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jarell Quansah’s goal on 55 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — FSV Mainz 05: Phillip Tietz (20’), Sheraldo Becker (35’) and Lee Jae-Sung (76’); Bayer Leverkusen: Jarell Quansah (90+3’).

What it changes

FSV Mainz 05 move down from fifth to seventh (five league matches played). FSV Mainz 05 have scored 13 goals, the fifth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 10 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Bayer Leverkusen move up from fifth to fourth (five league matches played). Bayer Leverkusen have scored 14 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Bayer Leverkusen have conceded eight goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

With seven goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 5, across nine matches. Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Anthony Caci (FSV Mainz 05) 14.5, Robert Andrich (Bayer Leverkusen) 10.0 and Nadiem Amiri (FSV Mainz 05) 5.8 led the match.

Head-to-head

Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last six meetings with FSV Mainz 05, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.8% of the time in the last 90 days (331 of 481).

Next up

FSV Mainz 05 next travel to FC Augsburg on 21 November 2026.

Bayer Leverkusen next host SC Paderborn 07 on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for FSV Mainz 05: FC Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
Venue: MEWA ARENA · Mainz
Referee: Max Burda, Germany
Model coverage: 210 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): FSV Mainz 05 0 · draws 2 · Bayer Leverkusen 4 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 1L · Bayer Leverkusen 3W 1D 1L

FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 210 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3 / 2.25

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

6.25 / 7.5

Corners

against 5.13 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.88 / 6.88

Shots on target

against 4 / 4.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.75 / 1.13

Cards

against 2 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

210

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	FSV Mainz 05 for / against	Line	Bayer Leverkusen for / against
Goals scored	3 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	2.25 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.25 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	7.5 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	18.63 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	19.75 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.88 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.88 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.63 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Max Burda, Germany.

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 Goalkeeper

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Zentner	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90
A. Schwolow	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Zentner n 8	81.8	2.9 6/4

FSV Mainz 05 Defensive

FSV Mainz 05 — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
F. Gruber	5	90450 min	112.2 /90	71.4 /90	61.2 /90	326.4 /90	91.8 /90	00 /90
K. Potulski	4	75298 min	82.4 /90	41.2 /90	30.9 /90	206 /90	72.1 /90	10.3 /90
D. da Costa	4	51205 min	41.8 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90	114.8 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90
S. Posch	3	89268 min	72.4 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90	186 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90
D. Kohr	2	85170 min	94.8 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90	147.4 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90
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FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Gruber n 5	90	1.8 3/3	0 0/0	F. Medina
K. Sano n 8	89.8	0.8 4/2	0.9 4/3	Aleix García
N. Amiri n 8	85.8	0.5 4/0	1 7/1	Aleix García
P. Tietz n 8	85.5	2.1 6/3	1.3 5/3	Afonso Moreira
P. Mwene n 8	88	1.2 7/2	1.5 7/2	Aleix García
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FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Gruber n 5	90	2.2 3/3
K. Sano n 8	89.8	1.1 6/2
N. Amiri n 8	85.8	1.2 5/3
P. Tietz n 8	85.5	0.4 3/0
P. Mwene n 8	88	1.8 7/3
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FSV Mainz 05 Attacking

FSV Mainz 05 — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
P. Tietz	5	87435 min	81.7 /90	00 /90	183.7 /90	112.3 /90	51 /90	30.6 /90
S. Becker	5	70348 min	30.8 /90	30.8 /90	112.8 /90	82.1 /90	71.8 /90	30.8 /90
R. Königsdörffer	4	29117 min	21.5 /90	00 /90	75.4 /90	32.3 /90	10.8 /90	32.3 /90
B. Hollerbach	1	1616 min	00 /90	00 /90	15.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
W. Bøving	1	1515 min	16 /90	00 /90	16 /90	16 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Gruber n 5	90	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
K. Sano n 8	89.8	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0
N. Amiri n 8	85.8	1.7 6/3	1 5/1
P. Tietz n 8	85.5	3 7/7	1.7 7/4
P. Mwene n 8	88	0.8 4/1	0.5 3/1
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FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Gruber n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Sano n 8	89.8	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
N. Amiri n 8	85.8	0.4 2/1	0.3 1/1
P. Tietz n 8	85.5	1.3 6/2	0.1 1/0
P. Mwene n 8	88	0.3 2/0	0.4 2/1
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Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen Goalkeeper

Bayer Leverkusen — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Flekken	5	90450 min	122.4 /90	51 /90	00 /90
J. Blaswich	1	9090 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Bayer Leverkusen — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Flekken n 8	90	3.1 7/7
J. Blaswich n 8	90	4.5 6/6

Bayer Leverkusen Defensive

Bayer Leverkusen — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Tapsoba	6	90540 min	91.5 /90	71.2 /90	40.7 /90	244 /90	30.5 /90	10.2 /90
F. Medina	6	65387 min	40.9 /90	51.2 /90	20.5 /90	122.8 /90	81.9 /90	10.2 /90
J. Quansah	6	56333 min	41.1 /90	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	61.6 /90	41.1 /90	00 /90
Miguel Gutiérrez	5	89443 min	71.4 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90	163.3 /90	40.8 /90	10.2 /90
L. Badé	4	60238 min	62.3 /90	72.6 /90	00 /90	238.7 /90	62.3 /90	00 /90
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Bayer Leverkusen — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Tapsoba n 8	90	0.9 5/1	0.5 4/0	—
Aleix García n 8	86.1	0.3 1/1	0.1 1/0	P. Mwene
Afonso Moreira n 6	76.5	1.6 5/3	2 4/3	P. Tietz
P. Schick n 8	72.4	1.2 4/3	1.2 6/2	—
F. Medina n 6	64.5	1.9 4/2	0.7 3/0	F. Gruber
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Bayer Leverkusen — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Tapsoba n 8	90	1.4 8/3
Aleix García n 8	86.1	1.2 6/3
Afonso Moreira n 6	76.5	1.4 6/1
P. Schick n 8	72.4	0.8 3/2
F. Medina n 6	64.5	0.9 2/1
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Bayer Leverkusen Attacking

Bayer Leverkusen — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
P. Schick	6	67399 min	51.1 /90	10.2 /90	194.3 /90	92 /90	61.4 /90	61.4 /90
Christian Kofane	5	33163 min	31.7 /90	00 /90	105.5 /90	42.2 /90	21.1 /90	10.6 /90
N. Tella	1	2525 min	13.6 /90	00 /90	13.6 /90	13.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Aleix García	6	90540 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	71.2 /90	40.7 /90	193.2 /90	20.3 /90
Afonso Moreira	6	77459 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	132.5 /90	61.2 /90	40.8 /90	40.8 /90
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Bayer Leverkusen — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Aleix García n 8	86.1	1.3 5/4	0.7 3/2
E. Tapsoba n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Afonso Moreira n 6	76.5	2.5 6/4	1.2 4/2
P. Schick n 8	72.4	3.6 7/7	1.9 6/4
F. Medina n 6	64.5	0.9 3/1	0.9 3/1
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Bayer Leverkusen — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Aleix García n 8	86.1	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
E. Tapsoba n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Afonso Moreira n 6	76.5	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
P. Schick n 8	72.4	0.8 5/0	0.2 1/0
F. Medina n 6	64.5	0.5 2/0	0 0/0
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Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
FSV Mainz 05		Bayer Leverkusen
47%	Possession	53%
3.13	Expected goals (xG)	2.09
23	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	7
11	Shots off target	6
7	Blocked shots	3
17	Shots inside the box	12
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
11	Fouls	10
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	1
438	Passes	507
83%	Pass accuracy	85%

FSV Mainz 05 Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
P. Tietz	90	0	0	4	1	0	0	Y	6
N. Amiri	90	0	1	2	0	4	2	0	8
F. Gruber	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5.6
P. Mwene	90	0	0	2	0	2	2	0	7.2
S. Posch	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5.7
A. Schwolow	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.5
K. Sano	81	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
S. Becker	77	0	0	0	0	6	1	Y	7.3
A. Caci	70	2	0	2	2	4	5	0	9.3
E. Martel	70	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	5.9
K. Potulski	70	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	6.5
D. da Costa sub	20	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.5
R. Königsdörffer sub	20	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.5
Lee Jae-Sung sub	20	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.7
B. Hollerbach sub	13	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.2
L. Maloney sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7

Bayer Leverkusen Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
E. Tapsoba	90	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	6.3
R. Andrich	90	1	0	1	1	0	5	0	9
Miguel Gutiérrez	90	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	7.2
F. Medina	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
J. Quansah	90	1	0	2	2	0	3	Y	6.7
M. Flekken	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.2
Aleix García	84	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	7.2
P. Schick	83	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	7.6
M. Diaby	75	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	8
Afonso Moreira	75	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
I. Maza	66	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	6.5
M. Terrier sub	24	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.3
N. Tella sub	15	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	7.2
M. Tillman sub	15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
J. Hofmann sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
E. Fernández sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05WDWLW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Bayer LeverkusenLWDWW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

FSV Mainz 05 0 · 2 draws · Bayer Leverkusen 4 · 3.33 goals/game

2026-02-28 Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 FSV Mainz 05
2025-10-18 FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen
2025-05-17 FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen
2025-01-14 Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05
2024-02-23 Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FSV Mainz 05
2023-09-30 FSV Mainz 05 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen

League standing · 2026/27

FSV Mainz 05#12 pos10 pts9 pl-1 GD

Bayer Leverkusen#5 pos16 pts9 pl+3 GD

Goals per game

FSV Mainz 05 scored2

Bayer Leverkusen scored2.22

FSV Mainz 05 conceded2.11

Bayer Leverkusen conceded1.89

Shot Map and Expected Goals

FSV Mainz 05 2.23 xG from 23 shots, Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

FSV Mainz 05 (attacking right)Bayer Leverkusen (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
FSV Mainz 05	23	3	2.23
Bayer Leverkusen	16	4	2.44

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, FSV Mainz 05 led on xG, 1.27 to 0.89. At full time, xG was level: FSV Mainz 05 2.23, Bayer Leverkusen 2.44. The widest gap was 0.81 xG to Bayer Leverkusen, in the 13th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

FSV Mainz 05 2.23 xGBayer Leverkusen 2.44 xGdots = goals · 39 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen?: TACTIX’s free model pick for FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.50 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?: In their last 6 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?: Recent form — FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 1L; Bayer Leverkusen 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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