RB Leipzig v Union Berlin result

Full-time · RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin

Bundesliga · Fri, 24 Apr 2026 19:30 BST · Red Bull Arena

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: RB Leipzig · Union Berlin · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin — RB Leipzig won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 577 of 895 times (64.5%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said RB Leipzig: 4.58 to 0.37 in expected goals, from 20 shots to 4, ahead on xG from the sixth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 3–1 at Red Bull Arena in the Bundesliga on Friday 24 April. It is RB Leipzig’s first win over Union Berlin since 4 February 2024, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

RB Leipzig led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — RB Leipzig: Max Finkgräfe (22’), Rômulo (25’) and R. Baku (63’, assisted by Yan Diomande); Union Berlin: Danilho Doekhi (78’, assisted by Josip Juranović).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Max Finkgräfe’s goal on 22 minutes.

Discipline

Sven Jablonski, Germany showed two yellow cards — against 2.6 yellows a game across the last 15 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner (34’); Union Berlin: Diogo Leite (84’).

What it changes

RB Leipzig stay third after this result (31 league matches played).

Union Berlin stay 11th after this result (31 league matches played).

RB Leipzig have won their last five matches in all competitions. Union Berlin are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. RB Leipzig have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Danilho Doekhi (Union Berlin) 9.8, Yan Diomande (RB Leipzig) 8.2 and R. Baku (RB Leipzig) 6.9 led the match.

Head-to-head

Union Berlin are unbeaten in the last three meetings with RB Leipzig.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

RB Leipzig next travel to Union Berlin on 21 November 2026.

Union Berlin next travel to SC Freiburg on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for RB Leipzig: Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Union Berlin: SC Freiburg v Union Berlin, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin · Bundesliga
Venue: Red Bull Arena · Leipzig
Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): RB Leipzig 2 · draws 2 · Union Berlin 2 · 2 goals/game
Recent form: RB Leipzig 4W 0D 1L · Union Berlin 1W 1D 3L

RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 0.75

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.63 / 4.13

Corners

against 3.88 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.25 / 3.88

Shots on target

against 4 / 4.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.75 / 2.38

Cards

against 1.75 / 1.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

2.6 yellows

Referee · Sven Jablonski, Germany

21.2 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 15 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 18 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	RB Leipzig for / against	Line	Union Berlin for / against
Goals scored	2.13 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.63 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.13 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.5 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.25 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.88 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.63 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.63 for · 8.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.38 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany — 2.6 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 21.2 fouls over 15 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig Goalkeeper

RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
P. Gulácsi	22	871919 min	522.4 /90	281.3 /90	00 /90
Maarten Vandevoordt	13	881148 min	393.1 /90	151.2 /90	10.1 /90

RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
P. Gulácsi n 8	82.4	2.6 4/2
Maarten Vandevoordt n 8	90	3.1 8/5

RB Leipzig Defensive

RB Leipzig — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
W. Orbán	33	902957 min	461.4 /90	391.2 /90	310.9 /90	2016.1 /90	190.6 /90	40.1 /90
D. Raum	32	892843 min	541.7 /90	371.2 /90	120.4 /90	1063.4 /90	321 /90	70.2 /90
R. Baku	31	802475 min	642.3 /90	281 /90	100.4 /90	1083.9 /90	260.9 /90	50.2 /90
C. Lukeba	25	892217 min	291.2 /90	341.4 /90	200.8 /90	843.4 /90	110.4 /90	20.1 /90
E. Bitshiabu	8	76606 min	111.6 /90	50.7 /90	50.7 /90	203 /90	30.4 /90	00 /90
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RB Leipzig — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Seiwald n 8	86.1	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
W. Orbán n 8	90	1 4/3	0.8 5/1	L. Querfeld
D. Raum n 8	89	1 5/3	0.9 5/2	—
C. Baumgartner n 8	89.5	2.1 6/5	0.9 7/0	R. Khedira
Y. Diomande n 8	86	1 5/3	1.4 6/4	A. Ilić
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RB Leipzig — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Seiwald n 8	86.1	2.5 8/8
W. Orbán n 8	90	1.1 6/3
D. Raum n 8	89	1 4/4
C. Baumgartner n 8	89.5	1.8 5/4
Y. Diomande n 8	86	1 6/2
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RB Leipzig Attacking

RB Leipzig — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Y. Diomande	32	742378 min	130.5 /90	70.3 /90	411.6 /90	261 /90	501.9 /90	1144.3 /90
A. Nusa	30	712137 min	50.2 /90	40.2 /90	381.6 /90	170.7 /90	371.6 /90	632.7 /90
Rômulo	28	752105 min	80.3 /90	40.2 /90	492.1 /90	241 /90	261.1 /90	100.4 /90
J. Bakayoko	17	51864 min	30.3 /90	00 /90	151.6 /90	90.9 /90	111.1 /90	192 /90
C. Harder	17	49836 min	20.2 /90	40.4 /90	313.3 /90	171.8 /90	111.2 /90	60.6 /90
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RB Leipzig — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Seiwald n 8	86.1	0.7 4/1	0.5 3/1
W. Orbán n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.3 1/1
D. Raum n 8	89	0.8 3/2	0.5 3/1
C. Baumgartner n 8	89.5	2 7/5	1 5/3
Y. Diomande n 8	86	1.6 6/4	0.7 4/1
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RB Leipzig — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Seiwald n 8	86.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
W. Orbán n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Raum n 8	89	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
C. Baumgartner n 8	89.5	0.5 2/2	0.1 1/0
Y. Diomande n 8	86	0.5 4/0	0.3 2/0
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Union Berlin

Union Berlin Goalkeeper

Union Berlin — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Rønnow	31	892750 min	802.6 /90	551.8 /90	00 /90
M. Raab	2	66131 min	106.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Union Berlin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Rønnow n 8	90	2.4 4/3

Union Berlin Defensive

Union Berlin — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Doekhi	32	902880 min	431.3 /90	411.3 /90	230.7 /90	2056.4 /90	280.9 /90	40.1 /90
L. Querfeld	31	902790 min	511.6 /90	391.3 /90	250.8 /90	2187 /90	461.5 /90	60.2 /90
Diogo Leite	20	851700 min	261.4 /90	382 /90	70.4 /90	1055.6 /90	241.3 /90	20.1 /90
T. Rothe	16	53852 min	192 /90	202.1 /90	30.3 /90	545.7 /90	121.3 /90	00 /90
S. Nsoki	11	68746 min	111.3 /90	192.3 /90	20.2 /90	404.8 /90	81 /90	20.2 /90
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Union Berlin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
L. Querfeld n 8	90	1.6 6/4	0.3 2/0	W. Orbán
F. Rønnow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
R. Khedira n 8	89.6	2.1 7/6	0.6 4/1	C. Baumgartner
A. Ilić n 8	83.9	1.6 6/4	1.7 6/4	Y. Diomande
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Union Berlin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.5 3/1
L. Querfeld n 8	90	1.5 5/4
R. Khedira n 8	89.6	0.6 5/0
A. Ilić n 8	83.9	0 0/0
Ilyas Ansah n 8	57.1	1.4 5/1
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Union Berlin Attacking

Union Berlin — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Ilić	29	722079 min	30.1 /90	90.4 /90	512.2 /90	200.9 /90	311.3 /90	60.3 /90
Ilyas Ansah	28	661840 min	50.2 /90	10 /90	261.3 /90	120.6 /90	160.8 /90	281.4 /90
Jeong Woo-Yeong	23	521187 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	151.1 /90	70.5 /90	50.4 /90	60.5 /90
O. Burke	21	651356 min	50.3 /90	10.1 /90	231.5 /90	130.9 /90	171.1 /90	90.6 /90
Livan Burcu	12	38461 min	00 /90	00 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90	71.4 /90	112.1 /90
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Union Berlin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	1 3/2	0.5 2/1
L. Querfeld n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.3 2/0
F. Rønnow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Khedira n 8	89.6	0.6 4/1	0.3 2/0
A. Ilić n 8	83.9	2 6/5	1.3 6/3
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Union Berlin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
F. Rønnow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Khedira n 8	89.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
A. Ilić n 8	83.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
RB Leipzig		Union Berlin
67%	Possession	33%
4.49	Expected goals (xG)	0.19
20	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	1
6	Shots off target	3
4	Blocked shots	1
14	Shots inside the box	3
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
6	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Saves	6
602	Passes	296
87%	Pass accuracy	72%

RB Leipzig Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Maarten Vandevoordt	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
W. Orbán	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7.3
E. Bitshiabu	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.3
Max Finkgräfe	90	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	7.6
X. Schlager	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	7.6
C. Baumgartner	90	0	0	5	3	0	1	Y	6.5
A. Nusa	89	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	7
R. Baku	79	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	8.2
Y. Diomande	79	0	1	0	0	4	1	0	8.2
A. Ouédraogo	68	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	6.5
Rômulo	68	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	7
B. Gruda sub	22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
C. Harder sub	22	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.2
B. Henrichs sub	11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
J. Bakayoko sub	11	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.9
T. Gomis sub	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	–

Union Berlin Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
D. Doekhi	90	1	0	2	1	0	3	0	7.7
L. Querfeld	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.2
Diogo Leite	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	Y	6.3
R. Khedira	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
T. Rothe	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
O. Burke	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Schäfer	83	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.2
C. Trimmel	60	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.3
J. Haberer	60	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	6.5
A. Ilić	59	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.6
F. Rønnow	31	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
C. Klaus sub	59	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.9
Ilyas Ansah sub	31	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
J. Juranović sub	30	0	1	0	0	2	3	0	6.6
A. Kemlein sub	30	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.9
Livan Burcu sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind RB Leipzig v Union Berlin — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

RB LeipzigLWWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Union BerlinWLDLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

RB Leipzig 2 · 2 draws · Union Berlin 2 · 2 goals/game

2025-12-12 Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig
2025-02-01 Union Berlin 0–0 RB Leipzig
2024-09-14 RB Leipzig 0–0 Union Berlin
2024-02-04 RB Leipzig 2–0 Union Berlin
2023-09-03 Union Berlin 0–3 RB Leipzig
2023-02-11 RB Leipzig 1–2 Union Berlin

League standing · 2025/26

RB Leipzig#3 pos65 pts34 pl+19 GD

Union Berlin#11 pos39 pts34 pl-14 GD

Goals per game

RB Leipzig scored1.94

Union Berlin scored1.29

RB Leipzig conceded1.38

Union Berlin conceded1.71

Shot Map and Expected Goals

RB Leipzig 4.58 xG from 20 shots, Union Berlin 0.37 from 4. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

RB Leipzig (attacking right)Union Berlin (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
RB Leipzig	20	3	4.58
Union Berlin	4	1	0.37

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, RB Leipzig led on xG, 2.53 to 0.00. At full time, RB Leipzig led on xG, 4.58 to 0.37. The widest gap was 4.21 xG to RB Leipzig, in the 93rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

RB Leipzig 4.58 xGUnion Berlin 0.37 xGdots = goals · 24 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for RB Leipzig v Union Berlin?: TACTIX’s free model pick for RB Leipzig v Union Berlin was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?: In their last 6 meetings, RB Leipzig won 2, Union Berlin won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?: Recent form — RB Leipzig 4W 0D 1L; Union Berlin 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.