Birmingham v Derby prediction

Championship · Sat, 13 Feb 2027 15:00 GMT

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Birmingham · Derby · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Birmingham v Derby, Championship on Sat, 13 Feb 2027 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Birmingham host Derby in the Championship on Saturday 13 February (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Birmingham have conceded 14 goals, the fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). 12 of Birmingham’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Form and the table

Both teams scored in 10 of Birmingham’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Birmingham have four wins, four draws and one defeat in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.78 points per game, scoring 2.22 and conceding 1.56. Birmingham have scored 28 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games).

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Derby have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.14. Derby have scored 14 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Derby have conceded 30 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Birmingham have won their last three matches in all competitions. Birmingham (first) and Derby (23rd) are 19 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Birmingham the stronger side, 377 rating points above Derby (Birmingham 1706, Derby 1329, after at least 342 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 12 September 2026, finished Derby 1–2 Birmingham.

Team news

Predicted Birmingham XI (4-2-3-1): R. Allsop, P. Neumann, A. Cochrane, C. Klarer, E. Laird, T. Iwata, J. Solis, L. Millar, J. Stansfield, P. Roberts, A. Priske — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Liam Millar (5.1 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and three assists) and Ryan Allsop (4.0 per match over four appearances, one assist) have been Birmingham’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Birmingham (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Liam Millar averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 1292 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Ryan Allsop averages 2.6 saves per 90 over 315 minutes.

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, J. Robinson, R. Hedges, B. Clark, D. Ozoh, S. Szmodics, R. Brewster, M. Fuseini, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (3.8 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1365 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1037 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 13 Feb 2027 15:00 GMT · Championship
Head-to-head (last 6): Birmingham 3 · draws 2 · Derby 1 · 2.5 goals/game
Recent form: Birmingham 4W 0D 1L · Derby 1W 1D 3L

Birmingham v Derby (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 1

Goals

against 0.63 / 2.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5 / 4.5

Corners

against 3.75 / 4.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.25 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 3.25 / 6.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 2.25

Cards

against 1.88 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Birmingham for / against	Line	Derby for / against
Goals scored	2.25 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15.25 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.25 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.25 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.63 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Birmingham

Birmingham Goalkeeper

Birmingham — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Beadle	14	871221 min	362.7 /90	120.9 /90	10.1 /90
R. Allsop	4	79315 min	92.6 /90	61.7 /90	00 /90

Birmingham — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Beadle n 8	84.4	2.8 6/5
R. Allsop n 8	84.4	2.5 6/3

Birmingham Defensive

Birmingham — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
C. Klarer	17	901536 min	251.5 /90	281.6 /90	110.6 /90	1508.8 /90	231.3 /90	30.2 /90
P. Neumann	17	861461 min	251.5 /90	301.8 /90	140.9 /90	1016.2 /90	150.9 /90	30.2 /90
A. Cochrane	17	801362 min	231.5 /90	80.5 /90	60.4 /90	563.7 /90	151 /90	40.3 /90
B. Osayi-Samuel	16	761212 min	302.2 /90	80.6 /90	20.1 /90	755.6 /90	141 /90	50.4 /90
E. Laird	7	49342 min	61.6 /90	71.8 /90	20.5 /90	225.8 /90	71.8 /90	20.5 /90
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Birmingham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Klarer n 8	90	1.4 6/3	1 4/1	—
P. Neumann n 8	90	0.5 4/0	0.9 7/0	—
J. Stansfield n 8	87	2.2 6/5	0.3 2/0	—
A. Cochrane n 8	90	0.9 5/2	1.3 6/3	—
T. Iwata n 8	88.1	1.1 7/2	0 0/0	—
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Birmingham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Klarer n 8	90	1.9 7/4
P. Neumann n 8	90	1.8 6/6
J. Stansfield n 8	87	1.4 5/2
A. Cochrane n 8	90	0.9 5/2
T. Iwata n 8	88.1	1 5/1
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Birmingham Attacking

Birmingham — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Priske	13	76982 min	70.6 /90	10.1 /90	242.2 /90	141.3 /90	20.2 /90	10.1 /90
D. Gray	13	28367 min	41 /90	00 /90	92.2 /90	61.5 /90	61.5 /90	92.2 /90
L. Vázquez	5	47237 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.1 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
M. Ducksch	4	2286 min	00 /90	00 /90	33.1 /90	00 /90	22.1 /90	00 /90
J. Stansfield	17	811376 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	312 /90	201.3 /90	130.9 /90	90.6 /90
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Birmingham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Klarer n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Neumann n 8	90	0.9 4/3	0.1 1/0
J. Stansfield n 8	87	2.2 6/4	1.6 6/3
A. Cochrane n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.3 2/0
T. Iwata n 8	88.1	0.9 5/2	0 0/0
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Birmingham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Klarer n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
P. Neumann n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Stansfield n 8	87	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
A. Cochrane n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
T. Iwata n 8	88.1	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	12	901085 min	544.5 /90	161.3 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	4.6 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	14	821151 min	131 /90	161.3 /90	110.9 /90	554.3 /90	120.9 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.4 6/3	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.9 7/5	0.8 6/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.6 6/3
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1 4/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0.8 5/1
A. Mowatt n 8	67.1	1.7 4/3
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	12	861037 min	10.1 /90	20.2 /90	181.6 /90	70.6 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90
R. Brewster	11	44481 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90	40.7 /90	20.4 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	16	851365 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	211.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.5 /90	181.2 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.3 7/2	0.8 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.6 6/3	0.5 4/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Birmingham v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BirminghamWLWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

DerbyLDLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Birmingham 3 · 2 draws · Derby 1 · 2.5 goals/game

2026-09-12 Derby 1–2 Birmingham
2026-03-21 Derby 1–0 Birmingham
2025-12-26 Birmingham 1–1 Derby
2022-01-30 Derby 2–2 Birmingham
2021-09-10 Birmingham 2–0 Derby
2021-04-24 Derby 1–2 Birmingham

League standing · 2026/27

Birmingham#1 pos29 pts15 pl+14 GD

Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD

Goals per game

Birmingham scored1.87

Derby scored0.93

Birmingham conceded0.93

Derby conceded2

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?: In their last 6 meetings, Birmingham won 3, Derby won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Birmingham and Derby?: Recent form — Birmingham 4W 0D 1L; Derby 1W 1D 3L.

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