Burnley v Middlesbrough result

Full-time · Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough

Championship · Wed, 02 Sep 2026 20:00 BST · Turf Moor

Updated 16 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Burnley · Middlesbrough

The model’s pre-match pick

Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Best price: 1.45 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1431 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1 at Turf Moor in the Championship on Wednesday 2 September. Burnley are winless in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

The goals

Middlesbrough led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Middlesbrough: Aidan Morris (23’, assisted by Sebastian Berhalter); Burnley: Ugo Raghouber (54’, assisted by Zeki Amdouni).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ugo Raghouber’s goal on 54 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Middlesbrough, from fewer shots (10 to 11), created the better chances, 1.22 xG to 0.64 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

M. Donohue showed four yellow cards — against 4.9 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Burnley: Hannibal Mejbri (28’) and Ugo Raghouber (90+1’); Middlesbrough: William Lankshear (39’) and Alfie Jones (71’).

What it changes

Burnley move down from 22nd to 23rd (four league matches played).

Middlesbrough move down from third to sixth (four league matches played).

Middlesbrough have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough) 10.1, Sebastian Berhalter (Middlesbrough) 6.4 and Zeki Amdouni (Burnley) 5.5 led the match.

Head-to-head

Burnley are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Middlesbrough, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Middlesbrough, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (975 of 1431).

Next up

Burnley next host Blackburn on 21 November 2026.

Middlesbrough next host Bristol City on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Burnley: Burnley v Blackburn, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough v Bristol City, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough · Championship
Venue: Turf Moor · Burnley
Referee: M. Donohue
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Burnley 2 · draws 2 · Middlesbrough 0 · 2.25 goals/game
Recent form: Burnley 0W 3D 2L · Middlesbrough 4W 0D 1L

Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 16 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.38

Goals

against 1.75 / 0.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

4.5 / 7.14

Corners

against 5 / 2.71 · 1 of the last 3 over 9.5

over 6 matches

4.5 / 4.57

Shots on target

against 4.83 / 2.86 · 2 of the last 3 over 8.5

over 6 matches

2.17 / 0.57

Cards

against 2.17 / 2.29 · 2 of the last 3 over 3.5

over 6 matches

4.91 yellows

Referee · M. Donohue

22.27 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 11 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Burnley for / against	Line	Middlesbrough for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 5 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	7.14 for · 2.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	13.5 for · 14.83 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	18.71 for · 9.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 4.83 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	4.57 for · 2.86 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.33 for · 9.5 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	10.29 for · 10 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2.17 for · 2.17 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	0.57 for · 2.29 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: M. Donohue — 4.91 yellow cards a game, 0.18 red cards, 22.27 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Burnley

Burnley Goalkeeper

Burnley — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Weiß	3	90270 min	62 /90	93 /90	00 /90

Burnley — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Weiß n 8	90	2.9 6/4

Burnley Defensive

Burnley — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
K. Walker	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	10.3 /90	51.7 /90	103.3 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
Max Alleyne	3	90270 min	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	31 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
B. Humphreys	2	77154 min	21.2 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	74.1 /90	42.3 /90	00 /90
Connor Roberts	2	68135 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	53.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
O. Sonne	2	68135 min	21.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	21.3 /90	10.7 /90
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Burnley — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Walker n 8	90	1 7/1	0.6 4/1	—
Max Alleyne n 3	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0	—
M. Weiß n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Bruun Larsen n 8	51.3	0.2 1/0	0.4 1/1	Sebastian Berhalter
A. Ramsey n 8	69.8	1 5/1	1 3/2	—
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Burnley — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
K. Walker n 8	90	1.9 7/6
Max Alleyne n 3	90	0.7 2/0
J. Bruun Larsen n 8	51.3	0.4 2/0
A. Ramsey n 8	69.8	2.1 7/4
Marcus Edwards n 8	59.4	0.9 3/1
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Burnley Attacking

Burnley — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Zeki Amdouni	3	3192 min	00 /90	00 /90	22 /90	11 /90	00 /90	11 /90
Z. Flemming	2	84168 min	21.1 /90	00 /90	126.4 /90	42.1 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
A. Broja	1	5757 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.6 /90	11.6 /90	00 /90	11.6 /90
J. Bruun Larsen	3	78235 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	114.2 /90	31.1 /90
A. Ramsey	3	77230 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.6 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	31.2 /90
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Burnley — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
K. Walker n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Max Alleyne n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Weiß n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Bruun Larsen n 8	51.3	0.7 3/0	0 0/0
A. Ramsey n 8	69.8	1.5 6/2	0.5 3/0
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Burnley — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Max Alleyne n 3	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
K. Walker n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Weiß n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Bruun Larsen n 8	51.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
A. Ramsey n 8	69.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough Goalkeeper

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Vítek	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
S. Brynn	2	90180 min	63 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Vítek n 3	90	1.3 2/0
S. Brynn n 8	90	2.4 5/3

Middlesbrough Defensive

Middlesbrough — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Ayling	5	90450 min	61.2 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	224.4 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
C. Brittain	5	79393 min	61.4 /90	20.5 /90	10.2 /90	255.7 /90	81.8 /90	00 /90
Maximilian Arfsten	5	56278 min	154.9 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90	3310.7 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
A. Malanda	4	90360 min	41 /90	41 /90	51.3 /90	215.3 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
Neto Borges	4	83333 min	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	184.9 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
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Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Ayling n 8	89.6	0.6 4/1	1.5 7/2	—
M. Whittaker n 8	82.6	0.4 1/1	1.2 7/2	—
C. Brittain n 8	82.9	1.1 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
W. Lankshear n 5	72.8	2.2 4/3	0.7 3/0	—
Sebastian Berhalter n 5	71.8	1.3 4/1	0.5 2/0	J. Bruun Larsen
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Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Ayling n 8	89.6	1.6 8/4
M. Whittaker n 8	82.6	1.1 3/3
C. Brittain n 8	82.9	1.2 5/2
W. Lankshear n 5	72.8	0.2 1/0
Sebastian Berhalter n 5	71.8	1.8 4/2
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Middlesbrough Attacking

Middlesbrough — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
W. Lankshear	5	73364 min	61.5 /90	00 /90	143.5 /90	82 /90	51.2 /90	10.2 /90
K. Joseph	5	43217 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	83.3 /90	41.7 /90	52.1 /90	20.8 /90
M. Whittaker	5	84421 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	112.4 /90	51.1 /90	102.1 /90	71.5 /90
Sebastian Berhalter	5	72359 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	61.5 /90	20.5 /90	112.8 /90	00 /90
J. Sarmiento	5	55276 min	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	51.6 /90	31 /90	31 /90	51.6 /90
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Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
L. Ayling n 8	89.6	1 5/3	0 0/0
M. Whittaker n 8	82.6	2.2 8/5	0.8 4/1
C. Brittain n 8	82.9	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
W. Lankshear n 5	72.8	3.5 4/4	2 4/3
Sebastian Berhalter n 5	71.8	1.5 4/1	0.5 2/0
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Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Ayling n 8	89.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
M. Whittaker n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
C. Brittain n 8	82.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
W. Lankshear n 5	72.8	1.5 4/2	0 0/0
Sebastian Berhalter n 5	71.8	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Burnley		Middlesbrough
43%	Possession	57%
0.64	Expected goals (xG)	1.22
11	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
4	Shots off target	5
4	Blocked shots	3
6	Shots inside the box	4
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	6
11	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Saves	2
390	Passes	541
77%	Pass accuracy	86%

Burnley Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
M. Weiß	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.9
O. Sonne	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.5
A. Ahmedhodžić	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.6
H. Ekdal	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
Connor Roberts	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.5
U. Raghouber	90	1	0	1	1	0	0	Y	7.6
D. Satpaev	81	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	6.9
J. Bruun Larsen	77	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.3
Zeki Amdouni	71	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	6.9
H. Mejbri	45	0	0	0	0	1	2	Y	6.6
A. Hountondji	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
Max Alleyne sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
L. Ramazani sub	45	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.3
A. Ramsey sub	19	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.7
A. Broja sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
M. Trésor sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Middlesbrough Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Vítek	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.6
C. Brittain	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.7
L. Ayling	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.2
Neto Borges	90	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	6.3
A. Morris	90	1	0	2	1	1	3	0	8.5
A. Malanda	90	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	7
Sebastian Berhalter	90	0	1	0	0	2	4	0	7.2
W. Lankshear	87	0	0	1	0	1	1	Y	6.2
A. Jones	74	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
R. McGree	61	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	5.9
K. Joseph	61	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
Leo Castledine sub	29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
T. Conway sub	29	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
A. Phillips sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
D. Strelec sub	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Burnley v Middlesbrough — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BurnleyDDLDL

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 1 scored / 2 conceded per game

MiddlesbroughWWLWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Burnley 2 · 2 draws · Middlesbrough 0 · 2.25 goals/game

2024-12-29 Middlesbrough 0–0 Burnley
2024-12-06 Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough
2023-04-07 Middlesbrough 1–2 Burnley
2022-12-17 Burnley 3–1 Middlesbrough

League standing · 2026/27

Burnley#22 pos10 pts15 pl-9 GD

Middlesbrough#2 pos29 pts15 pl+11 GD

Goals per game

Burnley scored1.47

Middlesbrough scored2

Burnley conceded2.07

Middlesbrough conceded1.27

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Burnley v Middlesbrough?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Burnley v Middlesbrough was Draw or Away (best price 1.45 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Middlesbrough?: In their last 4 meetings, Burnley won 2, Middlesbrough won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Burnley and Middlesbrough?: Recent form — Burnley 0W 3D 2L; Middlesbrough 4W 0D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 16 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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