This Matchweek

DerbyStoke City

Derby v Stoke City result

Full-time · Derby 0–1 Stoke City

Championship · · Pride Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derby · Stoke City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Derby 0–1 Stoke City — Stoke City won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Total offsides under 5.5.

Free pick
Total offsides under 5.5
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
Match report, in numbers

The result

Stoke City won 1–0 at Pride Park in the Championship on Saturday 17 October. Stoke City have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Stoke City: Luke Graham (49’, assisted by Ethan Galbraith).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Luke Graham’s goal on 49 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Derby out-shot Stoke City 17 to 12 and created the better chances, 0.99 xG to 0.59 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Oliver Langford, England showed one yellow card — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Derby: David Ozoh (76’).

What it changes

Derby have scored 11 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Derby have conceded 29 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Stoke City have scored 22 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Stoke City have conceded 17 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Luke Graham (Stoke City) 8.1, Luca Bombino (Stoke City) 6.8 and Ethan Galbraith (Stoke City) 5.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Total offsides under 5.5, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Derby next host Bolton on 6 November 2026.

Stoke City next travel to Portsmouth on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Derby: Derby v Bolton, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Stoke City: Portsmouth v Stoke City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Derby 0–1 Stoke City · Championship
  • Venue: Pride Park · Derby
  • Referee: Oliver Langford, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Derby 3 · draws 1 · Stoke City 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Derby 0W 2D 3L · Stoke City 3W 1D 1L

Derby 0–1 Stoke City (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.5 / 4.75
Corners
against 5.25 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 5.5 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.38 / 2.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.8 yellows
Referee · Oliver Langford, England
21.8 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 14 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameDerby for / againstLineStoke City for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.5our book
1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
5.5 for · 5.25 against n 8
9.5standard
4.75 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
11.63 for · 14.38 against n 8
19.5standard
11.63 for · 17.13 against n 8
Shots on target
3.5 for · 5.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 5.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.38 for · 8.88 against n 8
21.5standard
13.38 for · 11.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Oliver Langford, England — 3.8 yellow cards a game, 0.2 red cards, 21.8 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström891725 min303.7 /90151.9 /9000 /90
J. Vickers390270 min62 /9062 /9000 /90
Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
3.77/5
J. Vickers n 889.5
2.46/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Langås1091905 min171.7 /9060.6 /9050.5 /90414.1 /9070.7 /9040.4 /90
D. Sanderson1082815 min80.9 /90111.2 /9091 /90424.6 /9091 /9020.2 /90
C. Taylor986774 min161.9 /9080.9 /9080.9 /90354.1 /90101.2 /9010.1 /90
J. Ward879629 min121.7 /90142 /9020.3 /90273.9 /9040.6 /9000 /90
M. Johnston540199 min31.4 /9000 /9010.5 /9031.4 /9031.4 /9010.5 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
B. Clark n 880.4
0.42/1
1.45/3
—
S. Langås n 890
0.53/1
0.43/0
—
D. Sanderson n 884.4
0.75/0
0.32/0
B. Wilmot
S. Szmodics n 879.1
0.32/0
0.75/0
—
C. Taylor n 888.9
1.35/4
0.85/1
—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 880.4
1.85/3
S. Langås n 890
1.66/4
D. Sanderson n 884.4
1.15/2
S. Szmodics n 879.1
15/1
C. Taylor n 888.9
1.66/2
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Morris786600 min10.2 /9010.2 /9081.2 /9030.5 /9071.1 /9020.3 /90
L. Salvesen733230 min20.8 /9000 /90114.3 /9052 /9031.2 /9020.8 /90
R. Brewster631185 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /90
H. Meister541206 min00 /9000 /9052.2 /9020.9 /9020.9 /9010.4 /90
B. Clark1183918 min20.2 /9020.2 /90161.6 /9070.7 /90151.5 /90171.7 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 880.4
1.46/2
0.74/1
S. Langås n 890
0.32/0
00/0
D. Sanderson n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
S. Szmodics n 879.1
1.75/4
0.94/2
C. Taylor n 888.9
00/0
00/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 880.4
0.11/0
0.11/0
S. Langås n 890
00/0
00/0
D. Sanderson n 884.4
00/0
00/0
S. Szmodics n 879.1
0.32/0
0.11/0
C. Taylor n 888.9
00/0
00/0
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Stoke City

Stoke City Goalkeeper

Stoke City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
V. Johansson1191997 min403.6 /90161.4 /9000 /90
Stoke City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 890
47/6

Stoke City Defensive

Stoke City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Wilmot1187952 min100.9 /90181.7 /90121.1 /90403.8 /90111 /9010.1 /90
Luke Graham991817 min141.5 /90141.5 /9050.6 /90495.4 /9080.9 /9030.3 /90
Bosun Lawal665389 min51.2 /9030.7 /9071.6 /90173.9 /9081.9 /9030.7 /90
M. Talovierov657342 min41.1 /9030.8 /9030.8 /90195 /9051.3 /9010.3 /90
B. Lawal465259 min41.4 /9010.3 /9000 /90113.8 /9072.4 /9020.7 /90
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Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
V. Johansson n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
E. Galbraith n 890
1.35/3
14/3
—
B. Wilmot n 884.4
1.25/2
0.43/0
D. Sanderson
E. Bocat n 878.8
0.32/0
1.45/3
—
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 880.4
1.87/5
1.45/3
—
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Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Galbraith n 890
1.36/2
B. Wilmot n 884.4
0.95/2
E. Bocat n 878.8
1.45/2
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 880.4
2.58/6
Luke Graham n 890
1.86/5
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Stoke City Attacking

Stoke City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
George Hirst945406 min10.2 /9010.2 /9051.1 /9030.7 /9010.2 /9000 /90
L. Cissé759416 min10.2 /9010.2 /9091.9 /9020.4 /9051.1 /9071.5 /90
S. Gallagher757396 min20.5 /9010.2 /9092 /9051.1 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
R. Boženík736251 min10.4 /9010.4 /9072.5 /9020.7 /9031.1 /9010.4 /90
J. McGlynn665391 min20.5 /9010.2 /9040.9 /9030.7 /9081.8 /9020.5 /90
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Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
V. Johansson n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Galbraith n 890
0.95/2
0.64/1
B. Wilmot n 884.4
0.73/2
0.11/0
E. Bocat n 878.8
16/1
0.32/0
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 880.4
0.42/1
0.11/0
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Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Johansson n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Galbraith n 890
0.32/0
0.32/0
B. Wilmot n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
E. Bocat n 878.8
0.11/0
0.31/1
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 880.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
DerbyStoke City
53%Possession47%
0.99Expected goals (xG)0.59
17Shots12
3Shots on target4
4Shots off target5
10Blocked shots3
14Shots inside the box3
6Corners4
2Offsides2
12Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
3Saves3
368Passes323
80%Pass accuracy76%

Derby Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Ward9000003307.3
C. Morris9000113107.7
R. Nyambe9000000106.5
D. Ozoh90002105Y6.3
D. Sanderson9000000207.5
J. Vickers9000000006.5
B. Clark8700102306.9
R. Hedges8700000206.9
S. Szmodics8700111106.3
M. Fuseini7300000106.3
L. Travis5200001107
R. Brewster sub3800101106.5
H. Meister sub1700100006.6
F. Bilbija sub800000006.7
C. Blackett-Taylor sub800000006.9
L. Salvesen sub800000106.3

Stoke City Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Wilmot9000000106.9
E. Galbraith9001212107.5
Luke Graham9010110208.3
Ben Johnson9000111107.5
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré9000101507.9
V. Johansson9000000007.5
J. Devenny8800101006.7
L. Cissé6800002106.6
B. Lawal6800000107.2
Bosun Lawal6800000106.9
J. McGlynn4500211206.6
E. Bocat3800000006.7
Luca Bombino sub5200000807.9
George Hirst sub4500100206.9
R. Boženík sub2200000006.5
M. Talovierov sub2200000006.9
J. Tchamadeu sub800000006.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Derby v Stoke City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
DerbyLLDDL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Stoke CityDWWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Derby 3 · 1 draw · Stoke City 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-04-06 Derby 2–0 Stoke City
  • 2025-08-09 Stoke City 3–1 Derby
  • 2025-05-03 Derby 0–0 Stoke City
  • 2024-11-02 Stoke City 2–1 Derby
  • 2021-12-30 Stoke City 1–2 Derby
  • 2021-09-18 Derby 2–1 Stoke City
League standing · 2026/27
Derby#23 pos7 pts14 pl-18 GD
Stoke City#4 pos26 pts14 pl+5 GD
Goals per game
Derby scored0.79
Stoke City scored1.57
Derby conceded2.07
Stoke City conceded1.21

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Derby v Stoke City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Stoke City was Total offsides under 5.5.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
In their last 6 meetings, Derby won 3, Stoke City won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derby and Stoke City?
Recent form — Derby 0W 2D 3L; Stoke City 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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