Middlesbrough v Derby prediction

Championship · Sat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT · Riverside Stadium

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Middlesbrough · Derby · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Middlesbrough v Derby, Championship on Sat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Middlesbrough host Derby in the Championship on Saturday 5 December (kick-off 15:00 UK).

Form and the table

11 of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Middlesbrough have four wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.33 points per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 1.33. Middlesbrough have scored 30 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Middlesbrough have conceded 19 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Derby have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.14. Derby have scored 14 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games, ranked per game). Derby have conceded 30 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Middlesbrough (first) and Derby (23rd) are 18 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Middlesbrough the stronger side, 306 rating points above Derby (Middlesbrough 1634, Derby 1329, after at least 342 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 1 January 2026, finished Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough.

Team news

Predicted Middlesbrough XI (4-2-3-1): R. Vítek, A. Phillips, A. Malanda, C. Brittain, N. Borges, A. Morris, A. Cozier-Duberry, S. Berhalter, T. Conway, R. McGree, W. Lankshear — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amario Cozier-Duberry (5.5 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and five assists) and Aidan Morris (4.9 per match over 15 appearances, two goals) have been Middlesbrough’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Middlesbrough (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amario Cozier-Duberry averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 830 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Aidan Morris averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 1330 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, J. Robinson, R. Hedges, B. Clark, D. Ozoh, S. Szmodics, R. Brewster, M. Fuseini, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (3.8 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1365 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1037 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT · Championship · Riverside Stadium
Head-to-head (last 6): Middlesbrough 3 · draws 1 · Derby 2 · 1.83 goals/game
Recent form: Middlesbrough 3W 1D 1L · Derby 1W 1D 3L

Middlesbrough v Derby (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 1

Goals

against 1.38 / 2.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

7.13 / 4.5

Corners

against 3.63 / 4.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

7.25 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 2.88 / 6.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1 / 2.25

Cards

against 1.63 / 1.88 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Middlesbrough for / against	Line	Derby for / against
Goals scored	2.25 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	7.13 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	20.75 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.25 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	7.25 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.38 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough Goalkeeper

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Vítek	14	901260 min	282 /90	171.2 /90	00 /90
S. Brynn	3	90270 min	82.7 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Vítek n 8	90	1.9 5/2
S. Brynn n 8	90	2.3 5/2

Middlesbrough Defensive

Middlesbrough — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
C. Brittain	17	871473 min	322 /90	140.9 /90	40.2 /90	855.2 /90	150.9 /90	10.1 /90
A. Malanda	15	891337 min	161.1 /90	120.8 /90	60.4 /90	734.9 /90	90.6 /90	20.1 /90
Neto Borges	15	791188 min	171.3 /90	90.7 /90	60.5 /90	554.2 /90	120.9 /90	20.2 /90
L. Ayling	14	751043 min	181.6 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90	564.8 /90	60.5 /90	00 /90
A. Phillips	12	72867 min	121.2 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	444.6 /90	70.7 /90	20.2 /90
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Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Brittain n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0.4 2/1	—
W. Lankshear n 8	80	1.1 5/2	1.4 6/3	—
Sebastian Berhalter n 8	60.9	1.1 4/2	1.3 5/2	—
A. Malanda n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0	—
A. Morris n 8	90	0.8 4/1	1.5 6/4	—
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Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Brittain n 8	90	2 7/4
W. Lankshear n 8	80	0 0/0
Sebastian Berhalter n 8	60.9	2 5/2
A. Malanda n 8	90	0.8 3/3
A. Morris n 8	90	3.5 8/6
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Middlesbrough Attacking

Middlesbrough — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
W. Lankshear	16	731169 min	151.2 /90	00 /90	423.2 /90	282.2 /90	131 /90	20.2 /90
K. Joseph	11	50545 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	142.3 /90	71.2 /90	71.2 /90	50.8 /90
J. Sarmiento	8	50401 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	71.6 /90	40.9 /90	51.1 /90	71.6 /90
D. Strelec	2	4385 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90	00 /90	33.2 /90	22.1 /90
Sebastian Berhalter	16	691110 min	30.2 /90	30.2 /90	201.6 /90	80.6 /90	423.4 /90	10.1 /90
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Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Brittain n 8	90	0.8 4/2	0.5 3/1
W. Lankshear n 8	80	3.4 7/7	2.4 7/5
Sebastian Berhalter n 8	60.9	1.8 5/2	0.7 3/1
A. Malanda n 8	90	0.9 4/2	0.4 3/0
A. Morris n 8	90	1.3 5/4	0.8 4/2
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Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Brittain n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
W. Lankshear n 8	80	1.1 6/2	0 0/0
Sebastian Berhalter n 8	60.9	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
A. Malanda n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
A. Morris n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	12	901085 min	544.5 /90	161.3 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	4.6 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	14	821151 min	131 /90	161.3 /90	110.9 /90	554.3 /90	120.9 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.4 6/3	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.9 7/5	0.8 6/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.6 6/3
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1 4/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0.8 5/1
A. Mowatt n 8	67.1	1.7 4/3
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	12	861037 min	10.1 /90	20.2 /90	181.6 /90	70.6 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90
R. Brewster	11	44481 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90	40.7 /90	20.4 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	16	851365 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	211.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.5 /90	181.2 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.3 7/2	0.8 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.6 6/3	0.5 4/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 6 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Middlesbrough v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MiddlesbroughWDWWL

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

DerbyLDLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Middlesbrough 3 · 1 draw · Derby 2 · 1.83 goals/game

2026-01-01 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
2025-11-29 Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby
2025-03-01 Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby
2024-08-17 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
2022-02-12 Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby
2021-08-21 Derby 0–0 Middlesbrough

League standing · 2026/27

Middlesbrough#1 pos28 pts14 pl+11 GD

Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD

Goals per game

Middlesbrough scored2.14

Derby scored0.93

Middlesbrough conceded1.36

Derby conceded2

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?: In their last 6 meetings, Middlesbrough won 3, Derby won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Middlesbrough and Derby?: Recent form — Middlesbrough 3W 1D 1L; Derby 1W 1D 3L.

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