MiddlesbroughWatford

Middlesbrough v Watford result

Full-time · Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford

Championship · · Riverside Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Middlesbrough · Watford · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford — Middlesbrough won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.1% of 277 landed (95% range 73.9–83.4%); it had given them 75.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Middlesbrough beat Watford 5–1 at Riverside Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 25 April. It is Middlesbrough’s first win over Watford since 4 May 2024, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Middlesbrough led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Middlesbrough: Morgan Whittaker (6’, 58’), David Strelec (45+1’, assisted by Morgan Whittaker) and Tommy Conway (75’ pen; 90+2’, assisted by David Strelec); Watford: James Abankwah (48’, assisted by K. Keben).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Morgan Whittaker’s goal on 6 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Middlesbrough 2.30, Watford 0.85, from 20 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

A. Herczeg showed three yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Middlesbrough: Aidan Morris (85’); Watford: James Abankwah (74’) and Imrân Louza (85’).

What it changes

Middlesbrough move up from fifth to fourth (45 league matches played).

Watford move down from 15th to 16th (45 league matches played).

Middlesbrough’s four-goal margin was the biggest of round 45, across 12 matches. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Watford are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Morgan Whittaker (Middlesbrough) 11.8, Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough) 11.0 and David Strelec (Middlesbrough) 7.2 led the match.

Head-to-head

Watford are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Middlesbrough.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Middlesbrough to win, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 79.1% of the time in the last 90 days (219 of 277).

Next up

Middlesbrough next host Bristol City on 21 November 2026.

Watford next travel to Sheffield Utd on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough v Bristol City, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Watford: Sheffield Utd v Watford, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford · Championship
  • Venue: Riverside Stadium · Middlesbrough
  • Referee: A. Herczeg
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Middlesbrough 3 · draws 0 · Watford 3 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Middlesbrough 1W 2D 2L · Watford 0W 1D 4L

Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
10.5 / 6.63
Corners
against 3.25 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.25 / 4.25
Shots on target
against 2.38 / 5.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2.5
Cards
against 2.38 / 3.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.18 yellows
Referee · A. Herczeg
21.64 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameMiddlesbrough for / againstLineWatford for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
0.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
10.5 for · 3.25 against n 8
9.5standard
6.63 for · 4.88 against n 8
Shots
22.38 for · 8.13 against n 8
19.5standard
13.25 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
6.25 for · 2.38 against n 8
8.5standard
4.25 for · 5.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.13 for · 12.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13 for · 10.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 3.13 against n 8

Referee: A. Herczeg — 3.18 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 21.64 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough Goalkeeper

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
S. Brynn45904056 min1012.2 /90471 /9010 /90
Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Brynn n 890.8
1.42/2

Middlesbrough Defensive

Middlesbrough — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Ayling41853471 min802.1 /90381 /90330.9 /902245.8 /90210.5 /9080.2 /90
M. Targett41813324 min511.4 /90471.3 /9070.2 /901123 /90240.6 /9050.1 /90
C. Brittain40883530 min641.6 /90451.1 /9060.2 /901824.6 /90350.9 /9060.2 /90
A. Jones23861976 min351.6 /90221 /90200.9 /90853.9 /90190.9 /9030.1 /90
D. Fry23741712 min201.1 /90170.9 /90321.7 /901226.4 /90100.5 /9010.1 /90
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Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Conway n 888.9
1.36/4
1.95/4
—
S. Brynn n 890.8
0.11/0
0.43/0
—
L. Ayling n 882.4
0.43/0
1.45/2
—
M. Targett n 880.5
0.32/0
0.84/2
—
C. Brittain n 889.9
0.64/1
1.14/3
—
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Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Conway n 888.9
0.84/2
L. Ayling n 882.4
28/4
M. Targett n 880.5
0.73/2
C. Brittain n 889.9
1.68/4
H. Hackney n 886.8
1.96/5
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Middlesbrough Attacking

Middlesbrough — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
T. Conway46783610 min100.2 /9050.1 /90441.1 /90280.7 /90621.5 /90360.9 /90
D. Strelec29581678 min60.3 /9000 /90331.8 /90191 /90160.9 /90120.6 /90
D. Burgzorg21551156 min20.2 /9020.2 /90181.4 /9090.7 /90251.9 /90100.8 /90
K. Sène2131652 min20.3 /9000 /9081.1 /9020.3 /9030.4 /9040.6 /90
S. Hansen1235420 min00 /9000 /9091.9 /9040.9 /9040.9 /9071.5 /90
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Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Conway n 888.9
0.64/1
0.32/0
S. Brynn n 890.8
00/0
00/0
L. Ayling n 882.4
1.27/2
0.43/0
M. Targett n 880.5
0.74/1
0.11/0
C. Brittain n 889.9
0.64/1
0.53/1
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Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Conway n 888.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
S. Brynn n 890.8
00/0
00/0
L. Ayling n 882.4
00/0
00/0
M. Targett n 880.5
00/0
00/0
C. Brittain n 889.9
00/0
00/0
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Watford

Watford Goalkeeper

Watford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Selvik39893465 min1102.9 /90491.3 /9010 /90
N. Baxter884675 min131.7 /90141.9 /9000 /90
Watford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Selvik n 890
4.17/7
N. Baxter n 884.4
1.75/2

Watford Defensive

Watford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Bola35832899 min331 /90461.4 /9080.2 /901153.6 /90140.4 /9020.1 /90
M. Pollock33842774 min280.9 /90280.9 /90270.9 /901695.5 /90270.9 /9070.2 /90
J. Ngakia32782504 min1124 /90341.2 /9060.2 /901846.6 /90281 /9040.1 /90
J. Abankwah30842512 min431.5 /90291 /90100.4 /901415.1 /90391.4 /9050.2 /90
K. Keben29752164 min271.1 /90231 /90110.5 /901054.4 /90170.7 /9030.1 /90
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Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
I. Louza n 881
1.55/4
1.46/2
—
L. Kjerrumgaard n 870.5
15/1
0.21/0
—
E. Selvik n 890
00/0
0.31/1
—
N. Irankunda n 869.1
25/4
2.18/4
—
M. Bola n 878.3
0.63/1
15/2
—
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Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
I. Louza n 881
1.55/3
L. Kjerrumgaard n 870.5
0.32/0
N. Irankunda n 869.1
1.54/3
M. Bola n 878.3
1.46/2
E. Kayembe n 882
1.14/3
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Watford Attacking

Watford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Kjerrumgaard41682795 min90.3 /9010 /90501.6 /90321 /90260.8 /9070.2 /90
M. Doumbia27591601 min50.3 /9000 /90301.7 /90140.8 /90221.2 /90110.6 /90
K. Baah2337847 min20.2 /9010.1 /90131.4 /9060.6 /90131.4 /90131.4 /90
Vivaldo Semedo1747807 min30.3 /9020.2 /90212.3 /90121.3 /9060.7 /9040.4 /90
Amin Nabizada33192 min00 /9000 /9032.9 /9011 /9043.9 /9043.9 /90
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Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Louza n 881
1.16/2
0.42/1
L. Kjerrumgaard n 870.5
1.66/3
16/0
E. Selvik n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Irankunda n 869.1
2.48/3
1.55/2
M. Bola n 878.3
0.63/1
0.11/0
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Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Louza n 881
0.11/0
0.11/0
L. Kjerrumgaard n 870.5
00/0
00/0
E. Selvik n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Irankunda n 869.1
0.32/0
0.21/0
M. Bola n 878.3
0.11/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MiddlesbroughWatford
56%Possession44%
2.30Expected goals (xG)0.85
20Shots12
9Shots on target3
5Shots off target6
6Blocked shots3
9Shots inside the box6
6Corners3
0Offsides4
8Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves4
543Passes437
89%Pass accuracy85%

Middlesbrough Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Brynn9000000006.2
C. Brittain9000100106.9
L. Ayling9000110307.2
A. Gilbert9000111207
A. Morris90001022Y6.6
D. Strelec9011221007.2
J. Sarmiento8300001106.3
A. Malanda6400000006.9
S. Hansen6400102006.2
M. Whittaker6321321109.9
A. Bangura4500000006.9
M. Targett sub4500004107.3
T. Conway sub2720221108.9
D. Fry sub2600000006.6
Leo Castledine sub2600210006.3
S. Silvera sub1400000106.3

Watford Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. Selvik9000000005.6
J. Abankwah90102101Y6.9
M. Pollock9000000106
K. Keben9001001105.6
I. Louza90003012Y6.7
E. Kayembe9000102407
M. Bola8200001006.3
N. Mendy6300001206.2
L. Kjerrumgaard6300321006.3
J. Ngakia6200000206.3
E. Bove6200002206.3
O. Maamma sub2800000106.3
M. Doumbia sub2800001106.5
J. Grieves sub2700000106.7
N. Irankunda sub2700000006.3
T. Ince sub800000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Middlesbrough v Watford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MiddlesbroughLDLDW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
WatfordLDLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.4 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Middlesbrough 3 · 0 draws · Watford 3 · 3 goals/game
  • 2025-11-01 Watford 3–0 Middlesbrough
  • 2025-02-15 Middlesbrough 0–1 Watford
  • 2024-10-05 Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough
  • 2024-05-04 Middlesbrough 3–1 Watford
  • 2023-09-30 Watford 2–3 Middlesbrough
  • 2023-01-28 Middlesbrough 2–0 Watford
League standing · 2025/26
Middlesbrough#5 pos80 pts46 pl+25 GD
Watford#16 pos57 pts46 pl-12 GD
Goals per game
Middlesbrough scored1.57
Watford scored1.15
Middlesbrough conceded1.02
Watford conceded1.41

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Middlesbrough v Watford?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Middlesbrough v Watford was Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Watford?
In their last 6 meetings, Middlesbrough won 3, Watford won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Middlesbrough and Watford?
Recent form — Middlesbrough 1W 2D 2L; Watford 0W 1D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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