Norwich v Bolton result

Full-time · Norwich 3–4 Bolton

Championship · Sun, 20 Sep 2026 13:30 BST · Carrow Road

Updated 4 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Norwich · Bolton

The model’s pre-match pick

Norwich 3–4 Bolton — Bolton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.50 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Bolton won 4–3 at Carrow Road in the Championship on Sunday 20 September. It is Bolton’s first win over Norwich since 4 November 2017, after three meetings without one (the 4 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 2–2 at half-time. The goals — Norwich: Mohamed Touré (5’, assisted by Andre Brooks), Ruairi McConville (19’, assisted by Oscar Schwartau) and Jack Stacey (61’, assisted by P. Maghoma); Bolton: Thierry Gale (8’, assisted by Ruben Rodrigues), Gaizka Larrazabal (42’, assisted by Max Conway), Samuel Dalby (47’, assisted by Kyliane Dong) and Atsuki Ito (72’, assisted by Samuel Iling-Junior).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s seven key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Atsuki Ito’s goal on 72 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Norwich 0.69, Bolton 1.10, from 10 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Tom Nield, England showed no yellow cards — against 2.5 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

Norwich move down from 10th to 17th (eight league matches played). Norwich have scored 27 goals, the fourth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Norwich have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Bolton move up from 17th to 15th (eight league matches played). Bolton have scored 19 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Bolton have conceded 26 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

With seven goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 8, across 12 matches. Norwich have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Gaizka Larrazabal (Bolton) 7.8, Max Conway (Bolton) 7.5 and Ruairi McConville (Norwich) 6.7 led the match.

Head-to-head

Norwich are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Bolton.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (366 of 543).

Next up

Norwich next travel to Bristol City on 7 November 2026.

Bolton next travel to Derby on 6 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Norwich: Bristol City v Norwich, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Bolton: Derby v Bolton, Friday 6 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Norwich 3–4 Bolton · Championship
Venue: Carrow Road · Norwich, Norfolk
Referee: Tom Nield, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Norwich 2 · draws 1 · Bolton 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Norwich 2W 0D 3L · Bolton 1W 0D 4L

Norwich 3–4 Bolton (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 4 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 0.88

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4 / 5.75

Corners

against 5 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 5.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.75 / 2

Cards

against 2 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

2.54 yellows

Referee · Tom Nield, England

21.38 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 13 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 17 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Norwich for / against	Line	Bolton for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.75 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.25 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.5 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.75 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.5 for · 11.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Tom Nield, England — 2.54 yellow cards a game, 0.08 red cards, 21.38 fouls over 13 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Norwich

Norwich Goalkeeper

Norwich — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
V. Kovačević	8	91729 min	192.3 /90	141.7 /90	10.1 /90
D. Grimshaw	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90

Norwich — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
V. Kovačević n 8	91.1	2.3 6/4
D. Grimshaw n 8	84.4	1.5 3/1

Norwich Defensive

Norwich — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Córdoba	8	88703 min	60.8 /90	40.5 /90	70.9 /90	253.2 /90	81 /90	60.8 /90
B. Chrisene	8	84672 min	212.8 /90	81.1 /90	30.4 /90	395.2 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90
Ruairi McConville	8	72579 min	50.8 /90	91.4 /90	30.5 /90	274.2 /90	30.5 /90	20.3 /90
J. Stacey	7	74517 min	142.4 /90	122.1 /90	20.3 /90	254.4 /90	61 /90	30.5 /90
K. Fisher	6	70421 min	132.8 /90	81.7 /90	10.2 /90	306.4 /90	71.5 /90	20.4 /90
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Norwich — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
P. Mattsson n 8	81.4	2.6 6/6	1.9 7/5	J. Sheehan
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	1.4 6/1	1 4/2	T. Gale
A. Ben Slimane n 8	53.4	0.8 3/1	0.6 3/0	—
V. Kovačević n 8	91.1	0 0/0	0.4 2/1	—
K. McLean n 8	89.9	0.9 5/2	1.8 6/4	J. Sheehan
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Norwich — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
P. Mattsson n 8	81.4	2.4 7/5
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	1.3 4/2
A. Ben Slimane n 8	53.4	1.7 6/2
K. McLean n 8	89.9	1.6 5/4
J. Córdoba n 8	87.9	0.8 3/1
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Norwich Attacking

Norwich — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Touré	8	65521 min	50.9 /90	10.2 /90	122.1 /90	71.2 /90	81.4 /90	10.2 /90
A. Musaba	8	50401 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	71.6 /90	51.1 /90	71.6 /90	112.5 /90
M. Kvistgaarden	7	43300 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	41.2 /90	30.9 /90	41.2 /90	00 /90
P. Diallo	7	29205 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	41.8 /90	31.3 /90	31.3 /90	83.5 /90
A. Crnac	4	34135 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	53.3 /90	21.3 /90	21.3 /90	32 /90
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Norwich — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
P. Mattsson n 8	81.4	0.7 3/2	0.4 2/1
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	2.4 7/5	1.3 4/3
A. Ben Slimane n 8	53.4	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
V. Kovačević n 8	91.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. McLean n 8	89.9	0.9 5/2	0.4 3/0
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Norwich — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
P. Mattsson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	0.3 1/1	0.2 1/0
A. Ben Slimane n 8	53.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
V. Kovačević n 8	91.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. McLean n 8	89.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Bolton

Bolton Goalkeeper

Bolton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Bonham	6	91547 min	172.8 /90	101.6 /90	00 /90
Gavin Bazunu	2	90180 min	147 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90

Bolton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Bonham n 8	90.9	2.7 5/2

Bolton Defensive

Bolton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
C. Forino-Joseph	7	88616 min	182.6 /90	142 /90	81.2 /90	527.6 /90	20.3 /90	10.1 /90
M. Conway	7	70492 min	162.9 /90	61.1 /90	50.9 /90	407.3 /90	40.7 /90	00 /90
Gaizka Larrazabal	7	65458 min	61.2 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90	163.1 /90	91.8 /90	10.2 /90
A. Famewo	6	75449 min	112.2 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90	377.4 /90	61.2 /90	20.4 /90
B. Davies	5	78391 min	20.5 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	194.4 /90	20.5 /90	10.2 /90
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Bolton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Sheehan n 8	90.4	1.4 5/4	2.1 8/5	K. McLean
S. Dalby n 8	80.8	1.1 7/1	1.1 5/2	—
T. Gale n 8	65.8	0.7 3/1	0.7 2/2	A. Brooks
C. Forino-Joseph n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0	1.4 7/3	—
M. Conway n 8	71	0.6 4/0	1.3 4/2	—
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Bolton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 8	90.4	1.2 6/3
S. Dalby n 8	80.8	1 4/2
T. Gale n 8	65.8	0.7 3/1
C. Forino-Joseph n 8	88.3	2.5 8/7
M. Conway n 8	71	3 6/3
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Bolton Attacking

Bolton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. Dalby	8	81646 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	91.3 /90	40.6 /90	50.7 /90	10.1 /90
K. Dong	6	43255 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.1 /90	10.4 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90
R. Hardie	3	2164 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.4 /90	00 /90	22.8 /90	00 /90
J. Nelson	3	1751 min	00 /90	00 /90	35.3 /90	23.5 /90	23.5 /90	23.5 /90
Thelonius Bair	2	3875 min	00 /90	11.2 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.2 /90	00 /90
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Bolton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 8	90.4	1.2 6/2	0.6 5/0
S. Dalby n 8	80.8	1.3 6/2	0.6 3/1
T. Gale n 8	65.8	1.4 4/3	0.7 4/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 8	88.3	1 6/2	0.3 2/0
M. Conway n 8	71	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Bolton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Dalby n 8	80.8	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
T. Gale n 8	65.8	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 8	88.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Conway n 8	71	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Norwich		Bolton
59%	Possession	41%
0.69	Expected goals (xG)	1.10
10	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots off target	3
1	Blocked shots	1
6	Shots inside the box	7
4	Corners	2
8	Offsides	4
11	Fouls	12
1	Saves	1
468	Passes	330
81%	Pass accuracy	78%

Norwich Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
V. Kovačević	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.9
J. Stacey	90	1	0	1	1	0	2	6.7
K. McLean	90	0	0	0	0	0	6	6.9
Ruairi McConville	90	1	0	1	1	1	0	7.3
P. Mattsson	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	6.3
J. Córdoba	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.3
B. Chrisene	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	5.9
A. Brooks	82	0	1	1	0	2	0	6
O. Schwartau	59	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.9
A. Musaba	59	0	0	0	0	0	1	7
M. Touré	15	1	0	1	1	0	0	7.5
J. Makama sub	75	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Jacob Wright sub	31	0	0	1	1	0	0	6.6
P. Maghoma sub	31	0	1	2	0	2	0	6.9
A. Crnac sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Bolton Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
E. Toal	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. Sheehan	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	6.2
T. Gale	90	1	0	1	1	0	2	7.7
E. Erhahon	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.3
B. Davies	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.2
M. Conway	90	0	1	0	0	1	3	6.3
Gavin Bazunu	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
S. Dalby	89	1	0	1	1	2	0	7.2
Gaizka Larrazabal	83	1	0	2	2	2	0	7.9
Ruben Rodrigues	70	0	1	2	0	1	3	6.5
K. Dong	70	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.3
S. Iling-Junior sub	20	0	1	0	0	1	1	6.9
A. Ito sub	20	1	0	1	1	0	0	7.5
X. Simons sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
Thelonius Bair sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Norwich v Bolton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

NorwichLWWLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

BoltonLLLLW

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Norwich 2 · 1 draw · Bolton 1 · 3 goals/game

2019-02-16 Bolton 0–4 Norwich
2018-12-08 Norwich 3–2 Bolton
2018-02-24 Norwich 0–0 Bolton
2017-11-04 Bolton 2–1 Norwich

League standing · 2026/27

Norwich#12 pos18 pts14 pl+3 GD

Bolton#17 pos17 pts14 pl-7 GD

Goals per game

Norwich scored1.93

Bolton scored1.36

Norwich conceded1.71

Bolton conceded1.86

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Norwich v Bolton?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Norwich v Bolton was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.50 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Bolton?: In their last 4 meetings, Norwich won 2, Bolton won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Norwich and Bolton?: Recent form — Norwich 2W 0D 3L; Bolton 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 4 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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