SouthamptonDerby

Southampton v Derby result

Full-time · Southampton 2–1 Derby

Championship · · St. Mary's Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Southampton · Derby

The model’s pre-match pick

Southampton 2–1 Derby — Southampton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 78% of 5167 landed (95% range 76.8–79.1%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Southampton beat Derby 2–1 at St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 11 April. Southampton are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions.

The goals

Southampton came from behind: Derby led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Derby: Carlton Morris (38’); Southampton: Leo Scienza (62’, assisted by Finn Azaz) and Taylor Harwood-Bellis (69’, assisted by Ryan Manning).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Taylor Harwood-Bellis’s goal on 69 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Southampton 1.73, Derby 0.91, from 15 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

A. Kitchen showed three yellow cards — against 2.5 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Southampton: Cyle Larin (90+3’); Derby: Dion Sanderson (53’) and Oscar Fraulo (55’).

What it changes

Southampton move up from sixth to fifth (41 league matches played). Southampton have scored 82 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Southampton have conceded 56 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby stay eighth after this result (42 league matches played). Derby have scored 67 goals, the seventh-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Derby have conceded 59 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Southampton have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Derby have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Caspar Jander (Southampton) 8.3, Ryan Manning (Southampton) 8.0 and Finn Azaz (Southampton) 8.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

Southampton are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Derby, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Southampton or Derby (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (4028 of 5167).

Next up

Southampton next host Derby on 21 November 2026.

Derby next travel to Southampton on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Southampton: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Southampton 2–1 Derby · Championship
  • Venue: St. Mary's Stadium · Southampton
  • Referee: A. Kitchen
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Southampton 0 · draws 3 · Derby 0 · 4.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Southampton 5W 0D 0L · Derby 3W 0D 2L

Southampton 2–1 Derby (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 1.63
Goals
against 0.63 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 3.5
Corners
against 6.75 / 5 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 3.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 2.5
Cards
against 2.13 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
2.55 yellows
Referee · A. Kitchen
20.64 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSouthampton for / againstLineDerby for / against
Goals scored
2.13 for · 0.63 against n 8
2.5standard
1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 6.75 against n 8
9.5standard
3.5 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
11.63 for · 15.5 against n 8
19.5standard
14.25 for · 11.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 11.63 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 1.75 against n 8

Referee: A. Kitchen — 2.55 yellow cards a game, 0.18 red cards, 20.64 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Southampton

Southampton Goalkeeper

Southampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Gavin Bazunu19901710 min432.3 /90281.5 /9000 /90
Daniel Peretz17901530 min513 /90140.8 /9000 /90
Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Gavin Bazunu n 890
37/7
Daniel Peretz n 890
4.16/5

Southampton Defensive

Southampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Ryan Manning40803186 min611.7 /90391.1 /90110.3 /901574.4 /90280.8 /9060.2 /90
Taylor Harwood-Bellis39893483 min340.9 /90360.9 /90320.8 /902215.7 /90300.8 /90100.3 /90
Nathan Wood30852542 min291 /90240.8 /90281 /901083.8 /90230.8 /9050.2 /90
J. Stephens29872526 min260.9 /90311.1 /90271 /90762.7 /90110.4 /9050.2 /90
Welington1660963 min323 /90171.6 /9040.4 /90706.5 /90212 /9020.2 /90
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Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ryan Manning n 886.6
1.27/2
16/2
—
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.42/1
15/3
—
Finn Azaz n 889.3
0.64/1
1.87/5
—
F. Downes n 882.3
1.56/3
0.73/2
—
Caspar Jander n 871.9
1.77/2
1.15/2
—
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Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ryan Manning n 886.6
2.98/7
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.93/3
Finn Azaz n 889.3
1.46/2
F. Downes n 882.3
1.57/3
Caspar Jander n 871.9
2.55/5
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Southampton Attacking

Southampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Armstrong29732115 min110.5 /9040.2 /90672.9 /90381.6 /90251.1 /90130.6 /90
Cameron Archer22461016 min40.4 /9020.2 /90211.9 /90111 /90111 /90131.2 /90
Jay Robinson2143911 min20.2 /9010.1 /90181.8 /90101 /90101 /90272.7 /90
Ross Stewart2143909 min80.8 /9030.3 /90212.1 /90161.6 /90111.1 /9010.1 /90
Cyle Larin1155602 min40.6 /9010.1 /90111.6 /9071 /9050.7 /9030.4 /90
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Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Ryan Manning n 886.6
0.53/1
0.32/0
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.85/1
0.11/0
Finn Azaz n 889.3
1.35/3
0.85/1
F. Downes n 882.3
0.32/0
0.32/0
Caspar Jander n 871.9
0.53/0
0.32/0
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Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ryan Manning n 886.6
0.11/0
00/0
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Finn Azaz n 889.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
F. Downes n 882.3
0.32/0
00/0
Caspar Jander n 871.9
00/0
00/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström29902610 min913.1 /90391.3 /9010 /90
J. Vickers890716 min232.9 /90131.6 /9000 /90
R. O'Donnell690540 min172.8 /9040.7 /9000 /90
Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890
3.55/4
J. Vickers n 889.5
2.97/4

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Clarke41893640 min651.6 /90561.4 /90431.1 /902466.1 /90391 /9080.2 /90
D. Sanderson34893027 min300.9 /90471.4 /90220.7 /901313.9 /90371.1 /9070.2 /90
J. Ward32822617 min421.4 /90301 /90100.3 /90983.4 /9070.2 /9040.1 /90
C. Elder27832229 min512.1 /90261 /9090.4 /901315.3 /90261 /9080.3 /90
S. Langås20871746 min271.4 /90241.2 /90120.6 /90894.6 /9090.5 /9020.1 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Clarke n 890
0.96/1
14/2
—
B. Clark n 883
1.27/2
1.16/2
—
P. Agyemang n 870.8
2.47/5
1.95/3
—
B. Brereton n 883.9
0.95/1
1.75/4
—
D. Sanderson n 890
1.35/3
0.53/1
—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Clarke n 890
16/2
B. Clark n 883
2.47/6
P. Agyemang n 870.8
0.64/0
B. Brereton n 883.9
0.74/1
D. Sanderson n 890
0.43/0
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
P. Agyemang38732777 min100.3 /9030.1 /90601.9 /90311 /90290.9 /90391.3 /90
R. Brewster30521547 min70.4 /9020.1 /90221.3 /90100.6 /90171 /90211.2 /90
C. Morris23721655 min110.6 /9010.1 /90301.6 /90150.8 /90191 /9070.4 /90
A. Weimann1641648 min00 /9010.1 /9081.1 /9040.6 /9060.8 /9040.6 /90
L. Salvesen1041414 min20.4 /9020.4 /9071.5 /9030.7 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Clarke n 890
0.94/2
0.32/0
B. Clark n 883
0.84/1
0.32/0
P. Agyemang n 870.8
2.27/4
15/1
B. Brereton n 883.9
1.67/4
1.26/3
D. Sanderson n 890
0.11/0
00/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Clarke n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
B. Clark n 883
00/0
0.11/0
P. Agyemang n 870.8
00/0
00/0
B. Brereton n 883.9
0.53/1
00/0
D. Sanderson n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SouthamptonDerby
62%Possession38%
1.73Expected goals (xG)0.91
15Shots9
5Shots on target4
7Shots off target2
3Blocked shots3
12Shots inside the box6
6Corners2
1Offsides1
8Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Saves3
462Passes289
83%Pass accuracy74%

Southampton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Daniel Peretz9000000007.3
Taylor Harwood-Bellis9010210008.6
J. Stephens9000000107.2
Ryan Manning9001104208
Caspar Jander9000002607.9
F. Downes9000001307.6
James Bree8700100106.3
Finn Azaz7501321507.3
Leo Scienza7510223108.3
Tom Fellows6400101106.2
Ross Stewart6400002006.2
Cyle Larin sub26001000Y6.3
K. Matsuki sub2600000006.9
Shea Charles sub1500000006.6
Samuel Edozie sub1500100106.7
Nathan Wood sub900000006.2

Derby Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. O'Donnell9000001007.2
J. Ward9000000106.7
D. Sanderson90000002Y6.2
M. Clarke9000000507
S. Szmodics9000220006.7
C. Morris9010220007.3
L. Travis8400001506.6
M. Johnston6700100206.3
D. Ozoh6700000206.7
J. Banel6600101006.2
B. Clark900000006.7
O. Fraulo sub81000021Y6.2
Owen Eames sub2400001006.5
C. Forsyth sub2300000006.2
S. Langås sub2300000206.3
L. Salvesen sub1200000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SouthamptonWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
DerbyLWWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Southampton 0 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 4.67 goals/game
  • 2025-10-04 Derby 1–1 Southampton
  • 2019-01-16 Southampton 4–4 Derby
  • 2019-01-05 Derby 2–2 Southampton
League standing · 2025/26
Southampton#4 pos80 pts46 pl+26 GD
Derby#8 pos69 pts46 pl+8 GD
Goals per game
Southampton scored1.78
Derby scored1.46
Southampton conceded1.22
Derby conceded1.28

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Southampton v Derby?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Derby was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Derby?
In their last 3 meetings, Southampton won 0, Derby won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 4.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Derby?
Recent form — Southampton 5W 0D 0L; Derby 3W 0D 2L.

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