This Matchweek

SouthamptonMillwall

Southampton v Millwall result

Full-time · Southampton 5–1 Millwall

Championship · · St. Mary's Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Southampton · Millwall

The model’s pre-match pick

Southampton 5–1 Millwall — Southampton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.30 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Southampton beat Millwall 5–1 at St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 29 August. It is Southampton’s first win over Millwall since 4 November 2023, after three meetings without one (the 4 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Southampton led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Millwall: Mark Sykes (15’); Southampton: Cyle Larin (25’, assisted by Ryan Manning; 62’, assisted by Finn Azaz), Finn Azaz (38’, assisted by Leo Scienza), Leo Scienza (55’ pen) and Tom Fellows (86’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Finn Azaz’s goal on 38 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Southampton 3.62, Millwall 1.35, from 21 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Adam Herczeg, England showed three yellow cards — against 4.0 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Southampton: Ryan Manning (4’) and Tom Fellows (87’); Millwall: Mark Sykes (10’).

What it changes

Southampton’s four-goal margin was the biggest of round 3, across 12 matches. Southampton have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions. Millwall have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Finn Azaz (Southampton) 11.0, Cyle Larin (Southampton) 10.1 and Leo Scienza (Southampton) 9.7 led the match.

Head-to-head

Millwall are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Southampton.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Southampton or Millwall (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Southampton next travel to Preston on 7 November 2026.

Millwall next travel to West Brom on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Southampton: Preston v Southampton, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Millwall: West Brom v Millwall, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Southampton 5–1 Millwall · Championship
  • Venue: St. Mary's Stadium · Southampton
  • Referee: Adam Herczeg, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Southampton 1 · draws 1 · Millwall 2 · 2.25 goals/game
  • Recent form: Southampton 3W 0D 2L · Millwall 3W 1D 1L

Southampton 5–1 Millwall (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 12 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 0.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.29 / 7.43
Corners
against 6 / 3.43 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.86 / 4.71
Shots on target
against 5.29 / 2.14 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.57 / 1.29
Cards
against 2.43 / 2 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4 yellows
Referee · Adam Herczeg, England
22.45 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSouthampton for / againstLineMillwall for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.75our book
1.25 for · 0.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.29 for · 6 against n 7
9.5standard
7.43 for · 3.43 against n 7
Shots
16 for · 16.71 against n 7
19.5standard
17.29 for · 8.57 against n 7
Shots on target
3.86 for · 5.29 against n 7
8.5standard
4.71 for · 2.14 against n 7
Fouls committed
9.57 for · 13.14 against n 7
21.5standard
11.43 for · 8.57 against n 7
Cards shown
1.57 for · 2.43 against n 7
3.5standard
1.29 for · 2 against n 7

Referee: Adam Herczeg, England — 4 yellow cards a game, 0.27 red cards, 22.45 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Southampton

Southampton Goalkeeper

Southampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Daniel Peretz492366 min112.7 /9071.7 /9000 /90
Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Daniel Peretz n 890.8
3.66/6

Southampton Defensive

Southampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Stephens492366 min10.2 /9041 /9082 /9092.2 /9000 /9000 /90
James Bree492366 min51.2 /9041 /9010.2 /9082 /9051.2 /9020.5 /90
Ryan Manning392276 min31 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90144.6 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90
Taylor Harwood-Bellis293186 min31.5 /9010.5 /9031.5 /90115.3 /9000 /9000 /90
Nathan Wood290180 min31.5 /9000 /9042 /90105 /9010.5 /9000 /90
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Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
James Bree n 882.1
16/1
0.42/1
Zak Norton Sturge
J. Stephens n 890.8
00/0
0.11/0
—
Daniel Peretz n 890.8
00/0
0.21/1
—
F. Downes n 865.8
2.47/3
1.24/2
Jenson Metcalfe
Leo Scienza n 882.4
0.32/0
2.57/4
—
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Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
James Bree n 882.1
1.47/2
J. Stephens n 890.8
0.63/1
F. Downes n 865.8
2.25/3
Leo Scienza n 882.4
0.84/2
K. Matsuki n 866.5
1.25/1
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Southampton Attacking

Southampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Cyle Larin361182 min31.5 /9000 /9094.5 /9063 /9021 /9010.5 /90
D. Mubama255110 min00 /9000 /9021.6 /9010.8 /9000 /9021.6 /90
B. Brereton16262 min00 /9000 /9022.9 /9000 /9000 /9011.5 /90
Cameron Archer12121 min00 /9000 /9014.3 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
F. Downes477306 min00 /9010.3 /9020.6 /9000 /9030.9 /9010.3 /90
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Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Stephens n 890.8
0.64/1
0.11/0
Daniel Peretz n 890.8
00/0
00/0
James Bree n 882.1
00/0
00/0
F. Downes n 865.8
0.31/1
00/0
Leo Scienza n 882.4
1.27/2
0.53/1
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Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Stephens n 890.8
00/0
00/0
Daniel Peretz n 890.8
00/0
00/0
James Bree n 882.1
00/0
00/0
F. Downes n 865.8
00/0
0.21/0
Leo Scienza n 882.4
0.11/0
00/0
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Millwall

Millwall Goalkeeper

Millwall — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
L. Jensen290180 min21 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Crocombe19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Millwall — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Jensen n 890
2.65/3
M. Crocombe n 890
36/4

Millwall Defensive

Millwall — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Cooper390270 min20.7 /9051.7 /9020.7 /90206.7 /9000 /9000 /90
Zak Norton Sturge364192 min52.3 /9031.4 /9000 /90104.7 /9010.5 /9000 /90
C. Taylor290180 min31.5 /9010.5 /9021 /90157.5 /9021 /9000 /90
E. Baggott19090 min33 /9033 /9011 /901010 /9011 /9000 /90
R. Leonard19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /9077 /9000 /9000 /90
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Millwall — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Cooper n 890
0.94/3
0.85/1
—
C. Neghli n 882
0.75/0
0.32/0
—
Zak Norton Sturge n 870
15/1
1.35/3
James Bree
Jenson Metcalfe n 356
4.83/2
00/0
F. Downes
M. Sykes n 347.7
00/0
00/0
—
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Millwall — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Cooper n 890
0.85/1
C. Neghli n 882
0.53/1
Zak Norton Sturge n 870
2.16/4
Jenson Metcalfe n 356
3.83/2
M. Sykes n 347.7
3.83/2
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Millwall Attacking

Millwall — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Coburn281161 min21.1 /9000 /9052.8 /9042.2 /9042.2 /9000 /90
K. Lisbie270139 min00 /9000 /9021.3 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9021.3 /90
T. Arconte268135 min21.3 /9000 /9042.7 /9021.3 /9010.7 /9010.7 /90
Z. Lovelace24283 min00 /9011.1 /9011.1 /9000 /9011.1 /9000 /90
L. Dykes19090 min00 /9000 /9022 /9000 /9011 /9000 /90
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Millwall — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Cooper n 890
0.63/2
0.42/1
C. Neghli n 882
1.46/4
0.43/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 870
0.32/0
0.21/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 356
1.62/1
00/0
M. Sykes n 347.7
0.61/0
00/0
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Millwall — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Cooper n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
C. Neghli n 882
0.11/0
0.32/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 870
00/0
00/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 356
00/0
0.51/0
M. Sykes n 347.7
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SouthamptonMillwall
53%Possession47%
3.62Expected goals (xG)1.35
21Shots15
7Shots on target5
7Shots off target5
7Blocked shots5
16Shots inside the box12
8Corners11
1Offsides2
6Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
4Saves2
428Passes378
87%Pass accuracy81%

Southampton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Finn Azaz9011113109
Daniel Peretz9000000007.2
Ryan Manning90011020Y6.7
James Bree9000101307.2
Cameron Bragg9000004107.3
Nathan Wood9000000106.6
K. Schlotterbeck8700110006.7
K. Matsuki8100000106.9
Leo Scienza7111213008.7
Cyle Larin7020430108.6
F. Downes4500001106.6
J. Ward-Prowse sub4500100006.9
D. Mubama sub2000200006.5
Tom Fellows sub19101100Y7.7
L. Dobbin sub900000006.7
J. Stephens sub30000000–

Millwall Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Taylor9000000005.9
M. Sykes90101120Y6.9
C. Neghli9000102506.5
C. De Norre9000002306.3
J. Cooper9000000105.9
M. Crocombe9000000005.9
J. Coburn8000210306.9
J. Metcalfe7900000206.3
Jenson Metcalfe7900002206.3
Zak Norton Sturge7100001205.3
T. Arconte7100211006.7
K. Lisbie6100100106.2
L. Cundle sub2900000006
E. Baggott sub1900100006.3
D. Kelly sub1900000006.5
Z. Lovelace sub1100220006.5
L. Dykes sub1000001006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Millwall — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SouthamptonWWLWL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
MillwallLDWWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Southampton 1 · 1 draw · Millwall 2 · 2.25 goals/game
  • 2026-01-01 Southampton 0–0 Millwall
  • 2025-11-29 Millwall 3–2 Southampton
  • 2024-02-24 Southampton 1–2 Millwall
  • 2023-11-04 Millwall 0–1 Southampton
League standing · 2026/27
Southampton#7 pos24 pts14 pl+15 GD
Millwall#13 pos18 pts14 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Southampton scored2.07
Millwall scored1.64
Southampton conceded1
Millwall conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Southampton v Millwall?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Millwall was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Millwall?
In their last 4 meetings, Southampton won 1, Millwall won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Millwall?
Recent form — Southampton 3W 0D 2L; Millwall 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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