Swansea v Watford result

Full-time · Swansea 1–1 Watford

Championship · Sat, 23 Aug 2025 12:30 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Swansea · Watford · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Swansea 1–1 Watford — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4579 landed (95% range 76.2–78.6%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Swansea and Watford drew 1–1 in the Championship on Saturday 23 August.

The goals

Watford led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Watford: Nestory Irankunda (35’); Swansea: Žan Vipotnik (82’, assisted by Ethan Galbraith).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Žan Vipotnik’s goal on 82 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Swansea 0.68, Watford 0.41, from 11 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Martin showed eight yellow cards — against 5.2 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Swansea: Marko Stamenić (54’), Ethan Galbraith (90+4’) and Joshua Tymon (90+7’); Watford: Hector Kyprianou (39’), J. Ngakia (70’), James Morris (90+4’), R. Andrews (90+9’) and Kwadwo Baah (90+10’).

What it changes

Swansea move up from 14th to 12th (three league matches played).

Watford move up from 12th to 11th (three league matches played).

Swansea are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nestory Irankunda (Watford) 6.5, Gonçalo Franco (Swansea) 4.8 and Cameron Burgess (Swansea) 4.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Swansea or Watford (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.4% of the time in the last 90 days (3544 of 4579).

Next up

Swansea next travel to QPR on 24 October 2026.

Watford next travel to Wolves on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Swansea: QPR v Swansea, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Watford: Wolves v Watford, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Swansea 1–1 Watford · Championship
Referee: S. Martin
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Swansea 3 · draws 1 · Watford 2 · 2 goals/game
Recent form: Swansea 2W 1D 2L · Watford 1W 1D 3L

Swansea 1–1 Watford (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 0.88

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.33 / 4.88

Corners

against 6.33 / 3.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 6 matches

3.83 / 3.13

Shots on target

against 2.83 / 5.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.5 / 3.13

Cards

against 2.5 / 2.75 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 6 matches

5.2 yellows

Referee · S. Martin

2.3 home / 2.9 away

over 10 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Swansea for / against	Line	Watford for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.88 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.33 for · 6.33 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	4.88 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.17 for · 8 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	12.5 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.83 for · 2.83 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	3.13 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.67 for · 13.83 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	13.38 for · 9.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 2.5 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	3.13 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: S. Martin — 5.2 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 21.9 fouls over 10 matches (2.3 to the home side, 2.9 to the away side).

Home 2.3Away 2.9

Swansea

Swansea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Fulton n 8	56.9	2.4 7/3	2 4/3	—
Gonçalo Franco n 8	76.4	2.1 6/5	1.6 8/3	—
L. Cullen n 8	57	2 5/2	0.8 3/1	—
J. Allen n 8	33.9	2 3/1	1 3/0	—
Z. Inoussa n 8	64.4	1.9 7/2	1.9 6/3	—

Swansea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Z. Vipotnik n 8	47.6	1.9 4/3	0.7 2/1
Eom Ji-Sung n 8	73	1.7 6/3	0.8 4/1
H. Darling n 8	90	1.6 6/6	0.8 4/2
Ronald n 8	82.5	1.6 7/4	0.7 4/1
Z. Inoussa n 8	64.4	1.6 7/2	0.5 3/0

Swansea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Tymon n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 2/1
F. Bianchini n 8	23.6	0 0/0	0.5 1/0
H. Darling n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Ronald n 8	82.5	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
L. Cullen n 8	57	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Swansea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gonçalo Franco n 8	76.4	3.7 5/5
Sam Parker n 8	22.9	3 3/1
Eom Ji-Sung n 8	73	2.5 7/5
K. Casey n 5	21.6	2.5 1/1
J. Fulton n 8	56.9	2.4 5/4

Watford

Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
I. Louza n 8	79.3	2.8 7/7	0.7 3/2	—
K. Baah n 8	44.5	2.3 4/3	2.3 5/3	—
R. Andrews n 8	27.3	2.1 5/0	1.2 3/0	—
V. Bayo n 8	28.5	2 4/1	1.2 3/0	—
M. Doumbia n 8	69.8	1.9 5/3	1 5/1	—

Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	62.8	3 7/5	0.5 2/1
K. Baah n 8	44.5	2.5 7/2	1 4/0
E. Kayembe n 8	77.8	2.3 6/5	0.9 4/2
N. Irankunda n 8	48.1	2.1 5/3	0.5 2/0
L. Kjerrumgaard n 8	56	2 4/3	1.4 4/3

Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
I. Louza n 8	79.3	0 0/0	0.7 5/0
L. Kjerrumgaard n 8	56	0.6 2/1	0 0/0
K. Baah n 8	44.5	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
M. Sissoko n 8	80.3	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
N. Irankunda n 8	48.1	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
P. Dwomoh n 8	52.6	2.8 6/3
J. Ngakia n 8	72	2.5 8/5
C. Wiley n 8	87	2.1 8/6
Rocco Vata n 8	74.3	2.1 8/5
I. Louza n 8	79.3	1.8 7/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Swansea		Watford
58%	Possession	42%
0.68	Expected goals (xG)	0.41
11	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots off target	1
3	Blocked shots	4
5	Shots inside the box	5
7	Corners	2
6	Offsides	1
11	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	1
412	Passes	300
74%	Pass accuracy	72%

Swansea player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Vigouroux	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
B. Cabango	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
C. Burgess	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7
J. Tymon	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	Y	6.7
Gonçalo Franco	90	0	0	2	1	0	4	0	6.3
E. Galbraith	90	0	1	0	0	3	2	Y	7.7
Ronald	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.2
L. Cullen	76	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.9
J. Key	75	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.7
M. Yalcouyé	53	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.5
Eom Ji-Sung	53	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
M. Stamenić sub	38	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.7
Z. Inoussa sub	38	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	6.6
M. Widell sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Z. Vipotnik sub	15	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.3

Watford player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
E. Selvik	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
K. Keben	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
J. Abankwah	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
M. Sissoko	90	0	0	0	0	4	0	6.7
Hector Kyprianou	90	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.9
M. Bola	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.2
Max Alleyne	87	0	0	0	0	3	0	7
E. Kayembe	87	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.3
J. Ngakia	78	0	1	0	0	4	Y	6.7
L. Kjerrumgaard	78	0	2	2	0	0	0	6.2
N. Irankunda	58	1	1	1	0	0	0	8.2
K. Baah sub	33	0	1	1	1	0	Y	6.3
J. Morris sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.6
Rocco Vata sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
R. Andrews sub	13	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.3
Vivaldo Semedo sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Swansea v Watford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SwanseaLDLWW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

WatfordLDLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Swansea 3 · 1 draw · Watford 2 · 2 goals/game

2025-03-12 Watford 1–0 Swansea
2024-11-05 Swansea 1–0 Watford
2024-03-06 Watford 1–1 Swansea
2023-10-24 Swansea 0–1 Watford
2022-12-30 Swansea 4–0 Watford
2022-10-05 Watford 1–2 Swansea

League standing · 2025/26

Swansea#11 pos64 pts46 pl-2 GD

Watford#16 pos57 pts46 pl-12 GD

Goals per game

Swansea scored1.24

Watford scored1.15

Swansea conceded1.28

Watford conceded1.41

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Swansea v Watford?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Swansea v Watford was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Watford?: In their last 6 meetings, Swansea won 3, Watford won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Swansea and Watford?: Recent form — Swansea 2W 1D 2L; Watford 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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