Watford v QPR result

Full-time · Watford 2–1 QPR

Championship · Sat, 16 Aug 2025 15:00 BST · Vicarage Road

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Watford · QPR · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Watford 2–1 QPR — Watford won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.7% of 165 landed (95% range 45.1–60.2%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Watford beat QPR 2–1 at Vicarage Road in the Championship on Saturday 16 August.

The goals

Watford led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Watford: Luca Kjerrumgaard (19’, assisted by Nestory Irankunda; 23’, assisted by Imrân Louza); QPR: Kieran Morgan (45’). Imrân Louza (90’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Luca Kjerrumgaard’s goal on 19 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Watford 2.06, QPR 0.50, from 17 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

T. Harrington showed three yellow cards and one red — against 2.5 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Watford: Edouard Kayembe (65’); QPR: Amadou Mbengue (40’) and K. Dembélé (79’).

What it changes

Watford move up from 24th to 12th (shared) (two league matches played).

QPR move down from sixth to 17th (two league matches played).

QPR are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Luca Kjerrumgaard (Watford) 8.2, Kieran Morgan (QPR) 8.2 and J. Ngakia (Watford) 5.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Watford next travel to Wolves on 24 October 2026.

QPR next host Swansea on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Watford: Wolves v Watford, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for QPR: QPR v Swansea, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Watford 2–1 QPR · Championship
Venue: Vicarage Road · Watford
Referee: T. Harrington
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Watford 2 · draws 1 · QPR 3 · 2.83 goals/game
Recent form: Watford 0W 1D 4L · QPR 1W 1D 3L

Watford 2–1 QPR (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.75 / 1.38

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.5 / 4

Corners

against 3.13 / 7.33 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

2.88 / 3.5

Shots on target

against 5.5 / 4.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

3.25 / 1.67

Cards

against 2.5 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Watford for / against	Line	QPR for / against
Goals scored	0.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.38 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.5 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 7.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	11.5 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	9.17 for · 13.5 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	2.88 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.5 for · 4.5 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.13 for · 9.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13 for · 12 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	3.25 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.67 for · 1.5 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: T. Harrington.

Watford

Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Baah n 8	43	2.6 5/3	2.1 4/3	—
I. Louza n 8	79.3	2.4 6/6	1 4/3	—
M. Doumbia n 8	71.4	2 6/3	0.9 5/1	—
Hector Kyprianou n 8	67.3	1.7 7/3	1.8 6/4	—
R. Andrews n 8	26.4	1.7 4/0	1.3 3/0	—

Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	62.8	3 7/5	0.5 2/1
N. Irankunda n 8	52.4	2.4 6/4	0.4 2/0
E. Kayembe n 8	78.3	1.9 5/4	0.6 3/1
L. Kjerrumgaard n 8	49.4	1.8 4/2	1.1 3/2
K. Baah n 8	43	1.8 6/1	1 4/0

Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
I. Louza n 8	79.3	0 0/0	0.6 4/0
K. Baah n 8	43	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
M. Sissoko n 8	79.5	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
M. Doumbia n 8	71.4	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Rocco Vata n 8	74.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0

Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
P. Dwomoh n 8	52.6	2.8 6/3
J. Ngakia n 8	72	2.2 8/4
C. Wiley n 8	87	2.1 8/6
I. Louza n 8	79.3	2.1 7/4
Rocco Vata n 8	74.3	2.1 8/5

QPR

QPR — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Frey n 8	62.8	3.9 7/6	1.3 3/3	—
E. Sutton n 3	33	3.6 2/1	0.9 1/0	—
K. Paal n 8	69.9	1.8 7/3	1.4 6/2	—
J. Colback n 8	84.4	1.6 7/3	1.6 8/3	—
P. Smyth n 8	62.6	1.6 6/2	2.2 8/4	—

QPR — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Frey n 8	62.8	2.2 6/2	0.7 4/0
Yang Min-Hyeok n 8	58.1	2.1 6/4	1 4/1
K. Dembélé n 8	46.6	1.4 4/1	1.2 4/1
I. Chair n 8	65.1	1 4/1	0.5 2/1
Rayan Jawad Kolli n 8	44.5	1 3/1	0.5 2/0

QPR — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Madsen n 8	71.8	0.2 1/0	0.5 3/0
K. Dembélé n 8	46.6	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
M. Frey n 8	62.8	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
Yang Min-Hyeok n 8	58.1	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
D. Bennie n 8	29.4	0.4 1/0	0 0/0

QPR — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Sutton n 3	33	5.5 2/1
J. Dunne n 8	90	3.9 7/7
H. Ashby n 8	55.5	3.4 6/5
K. Saito n 8	73.4	2.9 6/5
L. Andersen n 8	28.5	2.8 5/1

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Watford		QPR
46%	Possession	54%
2.06	Expected goals (xG)	0.50
17	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots off target	6
4	Blocked shots	4
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
9	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
2	Saves	2
402	Passes	461
82%	Pass accuracy	85%

Watford player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
E. Selvik	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
J. Ngakia	90	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	7.3
J. Abankwah	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
K. Keben	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.9
Hector Kyprianou	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.3
M. Sissoko	90	0	0	1	0	3	3	0	6.6
I. Louza	90	0	1	0	0	3	2	R	7.7
E. Kayembe	86	0	0	3	2	0	0	Y	7.2
M. Bola	74	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.3
L. Kjerrumgaard	74	2	0	3	2	0	0	0	8.2
N. Irankunda	56	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	7
K. Baah sub	35	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	6.9
R. Andrews sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
M. Doumbia sub	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
T. Dele-Bashiru sub	11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3

QPR player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Walsh	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.5
Kieran Morgan	90	1	1	1	1	4	0	7.2
L. Morrison	90	0	1	0	1	3	0	7.2
S. Cook	90	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.2
S. Field	90	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.3
I. Chair	90	0	2	2	3	1	0	6.9
K. Dembélé	81	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.3
R. Burrell	70	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.3
A. Mbengue	61	0	0	0	0	2	Y	5.9
N. Madsen	61	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.5
P. Smyth	45	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Rayan Jawad Kolli sub	45	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.7
João Henrique sub	30	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.7
J. Varane sub	30	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
R. Kone sub	21	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
Žan Celar sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Watford v QPR — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

WatfordLLDLL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

QPRLLWDL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Watford 2 · 1 draw · QPR 3 · 2.83 goals/game

2025-01-01 QPR 3–1 Watford
2024-11-30 Watford 0–0 QPR
2024-01-14 QPR 1–2 Watford
2023-08-05 Watford 4–0 QPR
2023-03-11 QPR 1–0 Watford
2022-08-27 Watford 2–3 QPR

League standing · 2025/26

Watford#16 pos57 pts46 pl-12 GD

QPR#15 pos58 pts46 pl-12 GD

Goals per game

Watford scored1.15

QPR scored1.33

Watford conceded1.41

QPR conceded1.59

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Watford v QPR?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Watford v QPR was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and QPR?: In their last 6 meetings, Watford won 2, QPR won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Watford and QPR?: Recent form — Watford 0W 1D 4L; QPR 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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