USA v Portugal result

Full-time · USA 0–2 Portugal

Friendlies · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: USA · Portugal

The model’s pre-match pick

USA 0–2 Portugal — Portugal won this Friendlies match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Portugal won 2–0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Friendlies on Wednesday 1 April.

The goals

Portugal led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Portugal: Trincão (37’, assisted by Bruno Fernandes) and João Félix (59’, assisted by Bruno Fernandes).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Trincão’s goal on 37 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: USA 0.00, Portugal 0.00, from 7 shots to 3 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Jablonski showed one yellow card — against 3.1 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (all competitions).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Trincão (Portugal) 4.7, José Sá (Portugal) 3.8 and Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) 3.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 65.7% of the time in the last 90 days (421 of 641).

Next up

Portugal next host Denmark on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Portugal: Portugal v Denmark, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: USA 0–2 Portugal · Friendlies
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Referee: S. Jablonski
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): USA 0 · draws 1 · Portugal 0 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: USA 1W 0D 2L · Portugal 3W 1D 1L

USA 0–2 Portugal (Friendlies): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 2.75
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5 / 6.14
Corners
against 4.14 / 2.14 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.43 / 6.43
Shots on target
against 4 / 3 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.43 / 1.86
Cards
against 1.14 / 2.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 March 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameUSA for / againstLinePortugal for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.5standard
2.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 4.14 against n 7
9.5standard
6.14 for · 2.14 against n 7
Shots
10.57 for · 8.71 against n 7
19.5standard
20.43 for · 9.29 against n 7
Shots on target
4.43 for · 4 against n 7
8.5standard
6.43 for · 3 against n 7
Fouls committed
7 for · 8 against n 7
21.5standard
13.71 for · 9.43 against n 7
Cards shown
1.43 for · 1.14 against n 7
3.5standard
1.86 for · 2.43 against n 7

Referee: S. Jablonski.

USA
USA — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Sebastian Berhalter n 868.3
2.86/6
1.57/2
—
A. Morris n 888.1
1.46/4
2.47/6
—
T. Tessmann n 854.9
1.44/2
0.21/0
—
M. McKenzie n 879.9
1.36/2
1.14/3
—
T. Weah n 886
1.26/2
15/3
—
USA — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Wright n 869.5
3.26/6
1.66/3
F. Balogun n 877.8
2.78/4
1.78/3
C. Pulišić n 860.4
2.46/3
1.14/1
Sebastian Berhalter n 868.3
26/3
0.85/0
M. Tillman n 851.6
1.54/2
1.13/2
USA — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Balogun n 877.8
16/1
0.11/0
H. Wright n 869.5
14/1
00/0
Sebastian Berhalter n 868.3
0.53/0
0.32/0
A. Freeman n 835.3
0.61/1
00/0
W. McKennie n 891.3
0.22/0
0.11/0
USA — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Sebastian Berhalter n 868.3
3.18/4
S. Dest n 881.8
2.68/4
T. Weah n 886
2.47/5
A. Morris n 888.1
2.27/5
Cristian Roldán n 878.9
28/4
USA — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Matt Turner n 891
4.38/8
Portugal
Portugal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Samú Costa n 880.5
26/4
2.46/6
—
João Félix n 879.9
1.88/4
1.77/4
—
Bernardo Silva n 873.1
1.46/2
0.21/0
—
Trincão n 880.9
1.36/2
0.43/0
—
João Neves n 868.5
1.35/2
1.56/2
—
Portugal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Cristiano Ronaldo n 883.3
3.58/8
2.38/6
João Félix n 879.9
3.57/6
25/3
Gonçalo Ramos n 829.4
3.45/2
1.53/1
Rafael Leão n 871.9
25/5
1.14/2
Bruno Fernandes n 888.9
1.97/3
13/3
Portugal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Bruno Fernandes n 888.9
0.43/0
0.53/1
Cristiano Ronaldo n 883.3
0.85/1
0.11/0
João Félix n 879.9
0.31/1
0.64/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 829.4
0.41/0
0.41/0
Trincão n 880.9
0.11/0
0.63/1
Portugal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Rúben Neves n 869.9
3.47/6
João Neves n 868.5
3.47/5
Samú Costa n 880.5
2.46/5
João Cancelo n 879.1
2.46/4
Gonçalo Inácio n 892.3
2.37/5
Portugal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 29 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Diogo Costa n 890.8
2.75/3
Rui Silva n 894.5
1.85/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
USAPortugal
39%Possession61%
7Shots3
2Shots on target2
3Shots off target1
2Blocked shots0
3Shots inside the box3
1Corners3
2Offsides1
4Fouls2
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Saves2
183Passes287
84%Pass accuracy88%

USA player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Matthew Freese4300000006.5
A. Freeman4300001106.7
C. Richards4300000006.3
A. Trusty4300000006.3
A. Robinson4300101106.2
W. McKennie4300101006.2
Sebastian Berhalter4300112106.6
A. Morris4300001106.7
T. Weah4300000006.3
C. Pulišić4300100006.2
M. Tillman4300111107

Portugal player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
José Sá4300000006.7
Diogo Dalot4300001006.3
Tomás Araújo4300000207.2
Gonçalo Inácio4300000006.3
João Cancelo43001001Y6.3
Samú Costa4300000106.6
Vitinha4300001007.2
Trincão4310110007.7
Bruno Fernandes4301111006.7
Pedro Neto4300000006.5
Gonçalo Ramos4300000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind USA v Portugal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
USAWLL
Last 3: 1W 0D 2L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game
PortugalWWDLW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
USA 0 · 1 draw · Portugal 0 · 2 goals/game
  • 2017-11-14 Portugal 1–1 USA
Goals per game
USA scored1
Portugal scored3
USA conceded1
Portugal conceded1.4

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for USA v Portugal?
TACTIX’s free model pick for USA v Portugal was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between USA and Portugal?
In their last 1 meetings, USA won 0, Portugal won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of USA and Portugal?
Recent form — USA 1W 0D 2L; Portugal 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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