Portugal v Denmark prediction

UEFA Nations League · Sat, 14 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:19 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Portugal v Denmark, UEFA Nations League on Sat, 14 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.17 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Portugal host Denmark in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Portugal or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Denmark have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions. Portugal have won their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Portugal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Portugal’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Portugal have six wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 2.22 points per game, scoring 2.56 and conceding 0.78.

Nine of Denmark’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Denmark’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Denmark have three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.38 points per game, scoring 2.13 and conceding 1.63.

Portugal (first) and Denmark (second) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Portugal the stronger side, 300 rating points above Denmark (Portugal 2029, Denmark 1728, after at least 28 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 1 October 2026, finished Denmark 2–4 Portugal.

Team news

Predicted Portugal XI (4-4-2): D. Costa, R. Dias, R. Veiga, N. Mendes, J. Cancelo, Vitinha, B. Fernandes, P. Neto, R. Neves, G. Ramos, J. Félix — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nuno Mendes (4.4 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and two assists) and João Félix (3.9 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Portugal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Portugal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nuno Mendes averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 1294 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances. João Félix averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 1697 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Denmark XI (4-2-3-1): M. Hermansen, J. Andersen, O. Provstgaard, J. Mæhle, R. Kristensen, M. Hjulmand, P. Højbjerg, M. Damsgaard, M. Daramy, G. Isaksen, R. Højlund — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mikkel Damsgaard (7.1 per match over three appearances, two goals and one assist) and J. Mæhle (5.1 per match over five appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Denmark’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Denmark (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mikkel Damsgaard averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 879 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. J. Mæhle averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 1446 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Portugal 2 · draws 0 · Denmark 1 · 4.67 goals/game
Recent form: Portugal 4W 0D 1L · Denmark 2W 1D 2L

Portugal v Denmark (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 2

Goals

against 0.75 / 1.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

5.25 / 6.86

Corners

against 4.38 / 3.57 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.25 / 5.71

Shots on target

against 4.13 / 4.14 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 1.43

Cards

against 1.25 / 2.43 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Portugal for / against	Line	Denmark for / against
Goals scored	2 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	2 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.86 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	16.13 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	18.71 for · 9.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.25 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.71 for · 4.14 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.88 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	8.71 for · 13.14 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.43 for · 2.43 against n 7 Last 5

Portugal

Portugal Goalkeeper

Portugal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Diogo Costa	9	90810 min	273 /90	70.8 /90	00 /90

Portugal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Diogo Costa n 8	90	3.2 6/4

Portugal Defensive

Portugal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Renato Veiga	9	90810 min	70.8 /90	141.6 /90	91 /90	333.7 /90	131.4 /90	30.3 /90
Nuno Mendes	9	83745 min	172.1 /90	81 /90	00 /90	597.1 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
João Cancelo	9	69619 min	152.2 /90	131.9 /90	40.6 /90	284.1 /90	121.7 /90	20.3 /90
Rúben Dias	8	90720 min	70.9 /90	81 /90	70.9 /90	334.1 /90	81 /90	20.3 /90
Nélson Semedo	4	31124 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	42.9 /90	21.5 /90	10.7 /90
See more players · Pro Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Portugal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renato Veiga n 8	90	1.5 7/2	0.5 4/0	—
Diogo Costa n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	0.5 2/1	2 8/5	—
Vitinha n 8	74.9	0.8 3/2	0.9 3/2	—
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	1.7 6/3	0.5 3/0	—
See more players · Pro

Portugal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.6 4/1
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	2.1 7/5
Vitinha n 8	74.9	0.8 3/2
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	2.2 5/4
Rúben Dias n 8	90	0.9 3/3
See more players · Pro

Portugal Attacking

Portugal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Cristiano Ronaldo	6	85508 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	193.4 /90	111.9 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
João Félix	6	79473 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	81.5 /90	40.8 /90	81.5 /90	91.7 /90
Francisco Conceição	6	46275 min	00 /90	00 /90	31 /90	00 /90	103.3 /90	51.6 /90
Rafael Leão	6	41245 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90	51.8 /90	103.7 /90
Gonçalo Ramos	5	60302 min	41.2 /90	10.3 /90	113.3 /90	72.1 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90
See more players · Pro

Portugal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
Diogo Costa n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
Vitinha n 8	74.9	1.1 4/3	0.6 3/1
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	1.2 4/1	0.7 2/1
See more players · Pro

Portugal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Diogo Costa n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
Vitinha n 8	74.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
See more players · Pro

Denmark

Denmark Goalkeeper

Denmark — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Jörgensen	2	90180 min	73.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90
M. Hermansen	2	90180 min	73.5 /90	42 /90	00 /90

Denmark — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Hermansen n 3	90	2.3 1/1

Denmark Defensive

Denmark — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Andersen	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	61.5 /90	30.8 /90	194.8 /90	41 /90	00 /90
O. Provstgaard	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	10.3 /90	51.3 /90	123 /90	00 /90	00 /90
J. Mæhle	4	88350 min	123.1 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	174.4 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90
R. Kristensen	4	87346 min	92.3 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	102.6 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
Morten Hjulmand	4	86342 min	61.6 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	153.9 /90	61.6 /90	00 /90
See more players · Pro

Denmark — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	1.2 7/2	0.8 5/1	—
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0	—
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	0.3 1/1	0.4 3/0	—
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	1.2 5/3	0.3 2/0	—
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	1.3 6/2	1.3 6/2	—
See more players · Pro

Denmark — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	1.7 8/5
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	1.3 3/2
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	2.7 5/5
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	2.3 6/4
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	1.1 4/3
See more players · Pro

Denmark Attacking

Denmark — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
R. Højlund	4	85341 min	30.8 /90	00 /90	61.6 /90	61.6 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90
A. Skov Olsen	1	8080 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	33.4 /90	00 /90
Morten Hjulmand	4	86342 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
G. Isaksen	4	55218 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	83.3 /90	20.8 /90	41.7 /90	41.7 /90
P. Højbjerg	3	90270 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
See more players · Pro

Denmark — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	0.8 2/1	0 0/0
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	1 5/2	0.4 3/0
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	0.3 1/1	0.1 1/0
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	0.9 5/1	0.1 1/0
See more players · Pro

Denmark — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Portugal v Denmark — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

PortugalLWWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game

DenmarkDLWLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Portugal 2 · 0 draws · Denmark 1 · 4.67 goals/game

2026-10-01 Denmark 2–4 Portugal
2025-03-23 Portugal 5–2 Denmark
2025-03-20 Denmark 1–0 Portugal

League standing · 2026/27

Portugal#1 pos12 pts4 pl+5 GD

Denmark#2 pos6 pts4 pl0 GD

Goals per game

Portugal scored2.25

Denmark scored1.75

Portugal conceded1

Denmark conceded1.75

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 246 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)

Pro

Win probability & value

Pro

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Portugal v Denmark?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Portugal v Denmark is Home or Draw (best price 1.17 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Portugal and Denmark?: In their last 3 meetings, Portugal won 2, Denmark won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Portugal and Denmark?: Recent form — Portugal 4W 0D 1L; Denmark 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:19 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.