JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki result

Full-time · JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki

J1 League · Sun, 11 Oct 2026 06:00 BST · Fukuda Denshi Arena

Updated 17 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: JEF United Chiba · V-varen Nagasaki

The model’s pre-match pick

JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki — this J1 League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 67% of 1302 landed (95% range 64.4–69.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki drew 1–1 at Fukuda Denshi Arena in the J1 League on Sunday 11 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: JEF United Chiba out-shot V-varen Nagasaki 16 to 13 and created the better chances, 2.79 xG to 0.62 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

JEF United Chiba led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — V-varen Nagasaki: an own goal by Thiago Santana (5’) and K. Yasuda (90’, assisted by Yamaguchi Hotaru).

Discipline

The bookings — JEF United Chiba: Erison (53’) and Dudu (90+2’); V-varen Nagasaki: Thiago Santana (13’).

What it changes

JEF United Chiba are winless in their last six matches.

V-varen Nagasaki are unbeaten in their last three matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Dudu (JEF United Chiba) 5.8, Asahi Masuyama (V-varen Nagasaki) 5.3 and Yamaguchi Hotaru (V-varen Nagasaki) 5.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or V-varen Nagasaki, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67% of the time in the last 90 days (872 of 1302).

Next up

JEF United Chiba next travel to Urawa on 21 October 2026.

V-varen Nagasaki next host Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 21 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for JEF United Chiba: Urawa v JEF United Chiba, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for V-varen Nagasaki: V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Wednesday 21 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki · J1 League
Venue: Fukuda Denshi Arena · Chiba
Referee: Yusuke Ohashi
Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: JEF United Chiba 0W 1D 4L · V-varen Nagasaki 2W 1D 2L

JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 1.38

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 3.75

Corners

against 4 / 5.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.38 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 5.38 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.5 / 1.13

Cards

against 0.38 / 0.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 June 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 June 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	JEF United Chiba for / against	Line	V-varen Nagasaki for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.75 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.5 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.38 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 0.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.13 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Yusuke Ohashi.

JEF United Chiba

JEF United Chiba — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
H. Goya n 8	42.6	2.6 5/3	0.8 2/1	—
T. Tsukui n 8	69.8	2.3 7/5	1.5 5/3	Riku Yamada
Carlinhos Junior n 8	61	2.2 6/4	1.1 4/2	—
M. Shinada n 8	30.1	2.2 3/2	0.7 2/0	—
K. Toriumi n 8	82	1.6 5/4	0.7 3/1	—

JEF United Chiba — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
H. Goya n 8	42.6	2.1 5/3	0.8 3/0
Carlinhos Junior n 8	61	2 5/4	1.3 5/2
N. Sugiyama n 8	22.4	2 3/1	1 2/0
T. Taguchi n 8	64.8	1.6 5/3	0.2 1/0
D. Ishikawa n 8	76.9	1.3 6/2	0.4 2/1

JEF United Chiba — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Sugiyama n 8	22.4	0 0/0	1 2/0
H. Goya n 8	42.6	0.8 3/0	0 0/0
Carlinhos Junior n 8	61	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
R. Ishio n 4	75	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
M. Himeno n 8	43	0.3 1/0	0 0/0

JEF United Chiba — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Dudu n 8	50.1	2.9 6/4
T. Tsukui n 8	69.8	2.6 7/5
T. Yasui n 8	47.1	2.6 7/3
Kazuki Tanaka n 7	34.6	2.2 3/2
M. Shinada n 8	30.1	2.2 3/1

JEF United Chiba — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Suarez n 8	90	3 7/5

V-varen Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Norman Campbell n 8	33.4	2 4/2	0.7 2/0	—
Thiago Santana n 8	64	1.8 5/3	1.2 3/2	—
Matheus Jesus n 8	56.8	1.8 5/4	2.4 6/3	—
Riku Yamada n 8	63.6	1.6 5/2	0.4 2/0	T. Tsukui
Yamasaki Ryogo n 8	22.6	1.5 2/1	1.5 3/0	—

V-varen Nagasaki — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Matheus Jesus n 8	56.8	3 6/4	1.2 4/2
Thiago Santana n 8	64	2.3 6/4	1.4 5/2
Yamasaki Ryogo n 8	22.6	2 2/1	1 1/1
Tsubasa Kasayanagi n 8	66.9	1.9 5/2	0.3 2/0
Keita Takahata n 8	34.9	1.6 5/0	0.3 1/0

V-varen Nagasaki — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Matheus Jesus n 8	56.8	0.6 3/0	0.4 1/1
Tsubasa Kasayanagi n 8	66.9	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
Thiago Santana n 8	64	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
Yamasaki Ryogo n 8	22.6	0.5 1/0	0 0/0
Iwasaki Yuto n 8	50.4	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

V-varen Nagasaki — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Masahiro Sekiguchi n 8	86.9	2.1 8/5
Hayato Teruyama n 8	47.5	2.1 5/2
Y. Egawa n 8	80.3	2 6/4
Onaga Hijiri n 8	90	1.9 7/4
Tenmu Matsumoto n 8	44	1.5 4/1

V-varen Nagasaki — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 June 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Goto Masaaki n 8	90	4.1 7/7

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
JEF United Chiba		V-varen Nagasaki
41%	Possession	59%
2.79	Expected goals (xG)	0.62
16	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots off target	7
4	Blocked shots	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
9	Corners	4
13	Fouls	7
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	4
342	Passes	521
70%	Pass accuracy	82%

JEF United Chiba player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Suarez	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Dudu	90	1	0	3	6	Y	7.9
B. Nduka	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
T. Kawano	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
K. Yamura	90	4	1	2	1	0	6.6
M. Hidaka	89	1	1	1	2	0	7.3
T. Tsukui	79	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
T. Yasui	79	1	0	3	2	0	8
Erison	69	1	1	0	0	Y	6.3
N. Sugiyama	69	0	0	2	0	0	6.2
R. Ishio	56	0	0	1	3	0	6.9
K. Yonekura sub	34	2	0	0	0	0	6.2
Z. Issaka sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
H. Goya sub	21	2	1	1	1	0	6.7
Kazuki Tanaka sub	11	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
Y. Kobayashi sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
D. Suzuki sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	–

V-varen Nagasaki player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Matheus Jesus	90	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	7.3
Motoki Hasegawa	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	7.5
Yamaguchi Hotaru	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	7.9
Arai Ikki	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.5
S. Yoneda	90	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	7.2
Goto Masaaki	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
Asahi Masuyama	86	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	6.7
Thiago Santana	74	0	0	3	1	1	0	Y	5.5
K. Doi	65	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
R. Shindo	61	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.7
Riku Yamada	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
K. Yasuda sub	45	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	7.5
Takuma Ominami sub	29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Y. Egawa sub	25	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.5
Jonathan sub	16	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
T. Matsumoto sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

JEF United ChibaLLLDL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 1 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

V-varen NagasakiLDLWW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

League standing · 2027

Last recorded position — not updated during the season.

JEF United Chiba#19 pos5 pts9 pl-11 GD

V-varen Nagasaki#14 pos9 pts9 pl-5 GD

Goals per game

JEF United Chiba scored0.89

V-varen Nagasaki scored1.22

JEF United Chiba conceded2.11

V-varen Nagasaki conceded1.78

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki?: TACTIX’s free model pick for JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki was Draw or Away.
What is the recent form of JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki?: Recent form — JEF United Chiba 0W 1D 4L; V-varen Nagasaki 2W 1D 2L.

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