This Matchweek

MalagaVillarreal

Malaga v Villarreal result

Full-time · Malaga 1–3 Villarreal

La Liga · · Estadio La Rosaleda

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Malaga · Villarreal

The model’s pre-match pick

Malaga 1–3 Villarreal — Villarreal won this La Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.65 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Villarreal: 4.25 to 0.36 in expected goals, 0.74 of it from a penalty, from 16 shots to 5, ahead on xG from the 27th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Villarreal won 3–1 at Estadio La Rosaleda in La Liga on Thursday 17 September. Malaga are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

Villarreal led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Malaga: Carlos Dotor (12’, assisted by Juan Cruz); Villarreal: Alberto Moleiro (40’, assisted by Ilias Akhomach) and Pape Gueye (45’, assisted by Ayoze Pérez; 86’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pape Gueye’s goal on 45 minutes.

Discipline

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain showed six yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Malaga: José Salinas (34’), David Larrubia (68’), Einar Galilea (70’), Ramón Enríquez (79’) and Alfonso Herrero (85’); Villarreal: Ilias Akhomach (42’).

What it changes

Malaga move down from 17th to 19th (six league matches played). Malaga have scored eight goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 11 games, ranked per game). Malaga have conceded 21 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Villarreal move up from 18th to 14th (six league matches played). Villarreal have scored 15 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 11 games, ranked per game). Villarreal have conceded 15 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Pape Gueye (Villarreal) 10.2, Puga (Malaga) 6.8 and Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal) 6.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (366 of 543).

Next up

Malaga next host Racing Santander on 7 November 2026.

Villarreal next host Getafe on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Malaga: Malaga v Racing Santander, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Villarreal: Villarreal v Getafe, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Malaga 1–3 Villarreal · La Liga
  • Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda · Málaga
  • Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Malaga 1 · draws 0 · Villarreal 1 · 1.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Malaga 0W 3D 2L · Villarreal 0W 1D 4L

Malaga 1–3 Villarreal (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.63 / 1.75
Goals
against 1.25 / 2 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5.38 / 7.13
Corners
against 4.38 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2.88 / 6
Shots on target
against 4.5 / 5.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.5 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.8 yellows
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
24.4 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 14 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMalaga for / againstLineVillarreal for / against
Goals scored
0.63 for · 1.25 against n 8
3our book
1.75 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
7.13 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
11.5 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
14.13 for · 15.13 against n 8
Shots on target
2.88 for · 4.5 against n 8
8.5standard
6 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 10.75 against n 8
21.5standard
9.88 for · 12.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain — 4.8 yellow cards a game, 0.3 red cards, 24.4 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Malaga

Malaga Goalkeeper

Malaga — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Alfonso Herrero590450 min193.8 /9081.6 /9000 /90
Malaga — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Alfonso Herrero n 891.1
3.27/6

Malaga Defensive

Malaga — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Ángel Recio590450 min40.8 /9061.2 /9020.4 /9091.8 /9030.6 /9000 /90
Rafita585427 min40.8 /9051.1 /9030.6 /90224.6 /9051.1 /9010.2 /90
Einar Galilea576379 min40.9 /9051.2 /9030.7 /90112.6 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
Puga554268 min93 /9051.7 /9031 /90268.7 /9093 /9020.7 /90
José Salinas456225 min20.8 /9052 /9020.8 /9083.2 /9020.8 /9000 /90
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Malaga — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Chupe n 879.9
1.15/2
1.15/3
—
Ángel Recio n 881
0.75/0
0.74/1
Renato Veiga
Alfonso Herrero n 891.1
00/0
0.43/0
—
Rafita n 888.3
0.95/1
1.75/3
—
David Larrubia n 884
0.73/2
0.86/0
—
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Malaga — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ángel Recio n 881
0.63/1
Chupe n 879.9
0.43/0
Rafita n 888.3
1.45/3
David Larrubia n 884
2.98/5
Einar Galilea n 875
1.14/1
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Malaga Attacking

Malaga — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Chupe590450 min10.2 /9000 /90102 /9030.6 /9030.6 /9000 /90
H. Abaida21733 min00 /9000 /9012.7 /9000 /9012.7 /9012.7 /90
Adrián Niño Heredia12323 min13.9 /9000 /90311.7 /9013.9 /9013.9 /9000 /90
David Larrubia579394 min00 /9000 /9071.6 /9020.5 /9071.6 /90133 /90
Izan Merino572360 min00 /9000 /9010.3 /9000 /9030.8 /9000 /90
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Malaga — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Chupe n 879.9
26/4
0.84/2
Ángel Recio n 881
0.63/1
0.32/0
Alfonso Herrero n 891.1
00/0
00/0
Rafita n 888.3
00/0
00/0
David Larrubia n 884
1.58/3
0.54/0
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Malaga — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Chupe n 879.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
Alfonso Herrero n 891.1
00/0
00/0
Ángel Recio n 881
00/0
00/0
Rafita n 888.3
00/0
00/0
David Larrubia n 884
0.11/0
00/0
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Villarreal

Villarreal Goalkeeper

Villarreal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Luíz Júnior490360 min61.5 /9082 /9000 /90
P. Gulácsi290180 min147 /9052.5 /9000 /90
Villarreal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Luíz Júnior n 890
25/3

Villarreal Defensive

Villarreal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Renato Veiga690540 min20.3 /9091.5 /90111.8 /90132.2 /9061 /9010.2 /90
S. Mouriño581406 min173.8 /9020.4 /9030.7 /90296.4 /9092 /9030.7 /90
Carlos Romero490360 min71.8 /9020.5 /9020.5 /90225.5 /9020.5 /9010.3 /90
J. Foyth390270 min62 /9072.3 /9072.3 /90175.7 /9010.3 /9020.7 /90
A. Freeman354163 min63.3 /9000 /9000 /90137.2 /9000 /9000 /90
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Villarreal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Renato Veiga n 890
1.15/2
0.54/0
Ángel Recio
P. Gueye n 877.9
15/2
1.66/4
—
G. Mikautadze n 877.3
0.42/1
0.74/1
—
N. Pépé n 874.1
0.32/0
1.26/2
—
Santi Comesaña n 861.8
2.47/3
1.34/1
—
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Villarreal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 890
0.54/0
P. Gueye n 877.9
1.36/2
G. Mikautadze n 877.3
0.31/1
N. Pépé n 874.1
0.53/0
Santi Comesaña n 861.8
2.65/4
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Villarreal Attacking

Villarreal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
G. Mikautadze677459 min10.2 /9020.4 /90132.5 /9081.6 /9091.8 /90132.5 /90
Gerard Moreno555273 min20.7 /9000 /9051.6 /9031 /9093 /9093 /90
Ayoze Pérez452207 min00 /9010.4 /9041.7 /9031.3 /9031.3 /9010.4 /90
T. Oluwaseyi334102 min00 /9000 /9021.8 /9000 /9021.8 /9000 /90
P. Gueye679476 min10.2 /9000 /9040.8 /9020.4 /9081.5 /9010.2 /90
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Villarreal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 890
0.31/1
00/0
P. Gueye n 877.9
0.75/0
0.43/0
G. Mikautadze n 877.3
2.57/4
1.75/4
N. Pépé n 874.1
27/5
1.47/2
Santi Comesaña n 861.8
0.42/0
0.42/0
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Villarreal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 890
00/0
0.11/0
P. Gueye n 877.9
0.32/0
00/0
G. Mikautadze n 877.3
0.43/0
0.43/0
N. Pépé n 874.1
0.32/0
0.31/1
Santi Comesaña n 861.8
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MalagaVillarreal
37%Possession63%
0.63Expected goals (xG)3.33
5Shots16
1Shots on target7
4Shots off target5
0Blocked shots4
4Shots inside the box12
4Corners8
1Offsides3
17Fouls10
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Saves0
347Passes598
81%Pass accuracy90%

Malaga Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Alfonso Herrero90000000Y6.2
Ángel Recio9000000308
Einar Galilea90000003Y6.6
David Larrubia90000013Y6.5
Pablo Martínez9000100106.5
Chupe9000100106.9
Puga7500001606.9
Izan Merino6100000006.5
Carlos Dotor6110110007.2
José Salinas45000004Y6
Juan Cruz4501001206.9
Dani Lorenzo sub4500000106.6
Rafita sub4500000207
Adrián Niño Heredia sub2900100006.2
Joaquín Muñoz sub2900100006.5
Ramón Enríquez sub15000010Y6.5

Villarreal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
P. Gulácsi9000000006.3
A. Freeman9000001107.3
Pau Navarro9000000106.6
Renato Veiga9000101007.2
Sergi Cardona9000000307
T. Buchanan9000213307.2
N. Saliba8000000206.9
Alberto Moleiro8010322007.7
Ayoze Pérez6301212106.5
Ilias Akhomach63011121Y6.9
Santi Comesaña3700001007.3
P. Gueye sub5320220009
G. Mikautadze sub2700101006.3
Carlos Romero sub2700000006.3
C. Macia sub1000000007.2
S. Mouriño sub1000000006.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Malaga v Villarreal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MalagaLDLDD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
VillarrealDLLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 1.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Malaga 1 · 0 draws · Villarreal 1 · 1.5 goals/game
  • 2018-04-01 Malaga 1–0 Villarreal
  • 2017-11-05 Villarreal 2–0 Malaga
League standing · 2026/27
Malaga#20 pos5 pts11 pl-13 GD
Villarreal#9 pos12 pts11 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Malaga scored0.73
Villarreal scored1.36
Malaga conceded1.91
Villarreal conceded1.36

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Malaga 0.36 xG from 5 shots, Villarreal 4.25 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Ayoze Pérez 53' · 0.62 xGTajon Buchanan 72' · 0.61 xGGeorges Mikautadze 68' · 0.50 xGAyoze Pérez 27' · 0.35 xGCarlos Romero 91' · 0.13 xGAdrián Niño 81' · 0.11 xGAlberto Moleiro 38' · 0.08 xGChupe 64' · 0.07 xGAyoze Pérez 23' · 0.06 xGAlberto Moleiro 49' · 0.05 xGSergi Cardona 1' · 0.04 xGPablo Martínez 74' · 0.03 xGIlias Akhomach 27' · 0.02 xGSergi Cardona 25' · 0.02 xGJoaquín Muñoz 76' · 0.02 xGRenato Veiga 36' · 0.02 xGTajon Buchanan 27' · 0.01 xGPape Alassane Gueye 85' · 0.74 xG · goalAlberto Moleiro 39' · 0.51 xG · goalPape Alassane Gueye 46' · 0.47 xG · goalCarlos Dotor 11' · 0.13 xG · goal
Malaga (attacking right)Villarreal (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Malaga510.36
Villarreal1634.25

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Villarreal led on xG, 1.11 to 0.13. At full time, Villarreal led on xG, 4.25 to 0.36, 0.74 of it from a penalty. The widest gap was 3.89 xG to Villarreal, in the 91st minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.32.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Malaga 11 minGoal - Villarreal 39 minGoal - Villarreal 46 minGoal - Villarreal 85 min
Malaga 0.36 xGVillarreal 4.25 xGdots = goals · 21 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Malaga v Villarreal?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Malaga v Villarreal was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.65 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Malaga and Villarreal?
In their last 2 meetings, Malaga won 1, Villarreal won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Malaga and Villarreal?
Recent form — Malaga 0W 3D 2L; Villarreal 0W 1D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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