ValenciaCelta Vigo

Valencia v Celta Vigo result

Full-time · Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo

La Liga · · Estadio de Mestalla

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Valencia · Celta Vigo · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo — Celta Vigo won this La Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,943 of 2,598 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Celta Vigo: 1.50 to 0.72 in expected goals, from 9 shots to 13, ahead on xG from the 55th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Celta Vigo won 3–2 at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga on Sunday 5 April. Celta Vigo have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Celta Vigo came from behind: Valencia led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Valencia: Guido Rodríguez (12’; 90’, assisted by U. Sadiq); Celta Vigo: I. Moriba (56’), Fer López (60’, assisted by Williot Swedberg) and Williot Swedberg (81’, assisted by I. Moriba).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with I. Moriba’s goal on 56 minutes.

Discipline

I. Galech showed four yellow cards — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Valencia: Guido Rodríguez (84’); Celta Vigo: Javi Rodríguez (43’), Marcos Alonso (44’) and Hugo Sotelo (71’).

What it changes

Valencia move down from 11th to 13th (30 league matches played). Valencia have scored 46 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Valencia have conceded 55 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Celta Vigo stay sixth after this result (30 league matches played). Celta Vigo have scored 53 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Celta Vigo have conceded 48 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

With five goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 30, across 10 matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Guido Rodríguez (Valencia) 11.5, I. Moriba (Celta Vigo) 10.7 and Williot Swedberg (Celta Vigo) 8.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Valencia or Celta Vigo (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Valencia next host Real Madrid on 7 November 2026.

Celta Vigo next host Levante on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Valencia: Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Celta Vigo: Celta Vigo v Levante, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo · La Liga
  • Venue: Estadio de Mestalla · Valencia
  • Referee: I. Galech
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Valencia 1 · draws 2 · Celta Vigo 3 · 3.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Valencia 3W 0D 2L · Celta Vigo 1W 2D 2L

Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5 / 4.25
Corners
against 3.75 / 4 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2.88 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 3.38 / 3.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 2.63
Cards
against 3 / 2.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.88 yellows
Referee · I. Galech
29 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 March 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameValencia for / againstLineCelta Vigo for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
1.63 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
4.25 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
10.75 for · 10.75 against n 8
19.5standard
10.75 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
2.88 for · 3.38 against n 8
8.5standard
4.75 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.13 for · 11.75 against n 8
21.5standard
11.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 3 against n 8
3.5standard
2.63 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: I. Galech — 3.88 yellow cards a game, 0.5 red cards, 29 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Valencia

Valencia Goalkeeper

Valencia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Julen Agirrezabala19901710 min573 /90301.6 /9010.1 /90
S. Dimitrievski13901170 min302.3 /90141.1 /9010.1 /90
Valencia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Julen Agirrezabala n 890
2.14/3
S. Dimitrievski n 890
2.56/4

Valencia Defensive

Valencia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
César Tárrega24801931 min351.6 /90211 /90180.8 /90924.3 /90301.4 /9060.3 /90
Copete24801916 min271.3 /90221 /90170.8 /90854 /90231.1 /9060.3 /90
José Gayà24791894 min512.4 /90150.7 /9050.2 /90904.3 /90221 /9060.3 /90
Thierry Correia19651239 min272 /90161.2 /9000 /90715.2 /90231.7 /9050.4 /90
D. Foulquier15871309 min181.2 /9080.6 /9010.1 /90493.4 /90181.2 /9010.1 /90
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Valencia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Luis Rioja n 873.6
0.21/0
0.63/1
I. Moriba
Hugo Duro n 853.9
0.83/1
2.37/2
—
A. Danjuma n 856.3
14/1
13/1
—
César Tárrega n 861.4
1.55/2
0.21/0
Marcos Alonso
Copete n 879.1
1.17/1
0.74/1
—
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Valencia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luis Rioja n 873.6
0.53/0
Hugo Duro n 853.9
13/2
A. Danjuma n 856.3
0.84/0
César Tárrega n 861.4
1.66/1
Copete n 879.1
1.16/1
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Valencia Attacking

Valencia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Hugo Duro28571605 min90.5 /9000 /90241.3 /90120.7 /90140.8 /9030.2 /90
A. Danjuma27611639 min30.2 /9020.1 /90281.5 /90150.8 /90120.7 /90271.5 /90
L. Beltrán22561236 min20.1 /9020.1 /90211.5 /90100.7 /90120.9 /90171.2 /90
L. Ramazani1557850 min40.4 /9010.1 /90222.3 /90121.3 /90141.5 /90131.4 /90
U. Sadiq1250602 min30.4 /9010.1 /90121.8 /9060.9 /9050.7 /90101.5 /90
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Valencia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Luis Rioja n 873.6
0.52/1
0.21/0
Hugo Duro n 853.9
1.35/1
0.63/0
A. Danjuma n 856.3
14/1
0.63/0
César Tárrega n 861.4
0.41/1
00/0
Copete n 879.1
0.63/1
00/0
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Valencia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Luis Rioja n 873.6
00/0
0.32/0
Hugo Duro n 853.9
0.63/0
00/0
A. Danjuma n 856.3
00/0
0.21/0
César Tárrega n 861.4
00/0
00/0
Copete n 879.1
00/0
00/0
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Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo Goalkeeper

Celta Vigo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
I. Radu39903516 min1042.7 /90451.2 /9020.1 /90
Iván Villar290180 min63 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Celta Vigo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
I. Radu n 890
2.54/3

Celta Vigo Defensive

Celta Vigo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Marcos Alonso33872879 min401.3 /90280.9 /90170.5 /901193.7 /90220.7 /9050.2 /90
Javi Rodríguez33812689 min481.6 /90200.7 /90140.5 /901183.9 /90391.3 /9050.2 /90
C. Starfelt29812352 min291.1 /90281.1 /90220.8 /90873.3 /90281.1 /9040.2 /90
Manu Fernández1374962 min171.6 /90100.9 /9030.3 /90343.2 /90121.1 /9030.3 /90
Carlos Domínguez1072723 min172.1 /9081 /9060.7 /90364.5 /9081 /9010.1 /90
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Celta Vigo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
I. Radu n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
I. Moriba n 868.3
0.32/0
1.37/1
Luis Rioja
Borja Iglesias n 858.4
1.75/2
14/1
—
Marcos Alonso n 889.9
15/3
0.65/0
César Tárrega
Javi Rodríguez n 882.8
1.14/2
1.16/1
—
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Celta Vigo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
I. Moriba n 868.3
2.58/5
Borja Iglesias n 858.4
0.42/0
Marcos Alonso n 889.9
1.15/3
Javi Rodríguez n 882.8
1.46/2
Óscar Mingueza n 859.9
1.96/2
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Celta Vigo Attacking

Celta Vigo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Borja Iglesias36582101 min130.6 /9030.1 /90462 /90301.3 /90220.9 /90140.6 /90
Ferran Jutglà29521498 min80.5 /9020.1 /90352.1 /90211.3 /90161 /90161 /90
Iago Aspas29511466 min70.4 /9030.2 /90291.8 /90201.2 /90422.6 /90161 /90
Pablo Durán27521416 min50.3 /9020.1 /90231.5 /90140.9 /90110.7 /9080.5 /90
W. Swedberg27501352 min70.5 /9040.3 /90191.3 /90171.1 /90120.8 /90100.7 /90
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Celta Vigo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Radu n 890
00/0
00/0
I. Moriba n 868.3
00/0
00/0
Borja Iglesias n 858.4
2.15/4
1.75/4
Marcos Alonso n 889.9
0.53/1
0.11/0
Javi Rodríguez n 882.8
0.54/0
00/0
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Celta Vigo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Radu n 890
00/0
00/0
I. Moriba n 868.3
00/0
00/0
Borja Iglesias n 858.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
Marcos Alonso n 889.9
00/0
00/0
Javi Rodríguez n 882.8
00/0
0.32/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ValenciaCelta Vigo
42%Possession58%
0.80Expected goals (xG)1.05
13Shots9
4Shots on target5
7Shots off target3
2Blocked shots1
7Shots inside the box6
6Corners0
0Offsides2
14Fouls21
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves2
345Passes500
81%Pass accuracy87%

Valencia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Dimitrievski9000000006.2
César Tárrega9000000106
E. Cömert9000311306.3
Luis Rioja9000101207
G. Rodríguez90202215Y9.5
L. Ramazani9000100106.6
José Gayà7800100106.3
Unai Núñez6300001206.3
Javi Guerra6300000106.2
André Almeida6300111006.5
Hugo Duro6300000106.9
F. Ugrinic sub2700001106.7
L. Beltrán sub2700000006.7
U. Sadiq sub2701201007.3
Thierry Correia sub2700001106.6
A. Danjuma sub1200000006.6

Celta Vigo Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
I. Radu9000000006
J. Aidoo9000000106.2
Marcos Alonso90000000Y6.3
Hugo Sotelo90000012Y7.2
I. Moriba9011112407.5
Sergio Carreira9000000006.7
Óscar Mingueza8800000006.5
Ferran Jutglà7100311005.9
Javi Rodríguez45000001Y6.5
Pablo Durán4500000106.7
Hugo Álvarez4500001206.7
Fer López sub4510211107.9
J. El Abdellaoui sub4500000106.9
W. Swedberg sub4511221107.9
Borja Iglesias sub1900000006.5
Yoel Lago sub900000106.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Valencia v Celta Vigo — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ValenciaLWWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game
Celta VigoLDDWL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Valencia 1 · 2 draws · Celta Vigo 3 · 3.33 goals/game
  • 2026-01-03 Celta Vigo 4–1 Valencia
  • 2025-02-02 Valencia 2–1 Celta Vigo
  • 2024-08-23 Celta Vigo 3–1 Valencia
  • 2024-05-26 Celta Vigo 2–2 Valencia
  • 2024-01-17 Valencia 1–3 Celta Vigo
  • 2023-11-25 Valencia 0–0 Celta Vigo
League standing · 2025/26
Valencia#9 pos49 pts38 pl-9 GD
Celta Vigo#6 pos54 pts38 pl+5 GD
Goals per game
Valencia scored1.21
Celta Vigo scored1.39
Valencia conceded1.45
Celta Vigo conceded1.26

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Valencia 0.72 xG from 13 shots, Celta Vigo 1.50 from 9. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Luis Rioja 73' · 0.09 xGUmar Sadiq 91' · 0.09 xGWilliot Swedberg 55' · 0.08 xGLargie Ramazani 75' · 0.08 xGFerrán Jutglà 47' · 0.07 xGEray Cömert 28' · 0.07 xGLargie Ramazani 11' · 0.06 xGUmar Sadiq 82' · 0.06 xGAndré Almeida 10' · 0.06 xGEray Cömert 86' · 0.05 xGJones El Abdellaoui 67' · 0.05 xGFerrán Jutglà 1' · 0.03 xGFerrán Jutglà 39' · 0.03 xGJosé Gayá 63' · 0.02 xGLucas Beltrán 79' · 0.02 xGFernando López 86' · 0.01 xGEray Cömert 37' · 0.01 xGIlaix Moriba 55' · 0.56 xG · goalWilliot Swedberg 80' · 0.54 xG · goalFernando López 59' · 0.13 xG · goalGuido Rodríguez 92' · 0.08 xG · goalGuido Rodríguez 11' · 0.06 xG · goal
Valencia (attacking right)Celta Vigo (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Valencia1320.72
Celta Vigo931.50

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Valencia 0.24, Celta Vigo 0.06. At full time, Celta Vigo led on xG, 1.50 to 0.72. The widest gap was 1.04 xG to Celta Vigo, in the 80th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.50.800′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Valencia 11 minGoal - Celta Vigo 55 minGoal - Celta Vigo 59 minGoal - Celta Vigo 80 minGoal - Valencia 92 min
Valencia 0.72 xGCelta Vigo 1.50 xGdots = goals · 22 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Valencia v Celta Vigo?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Valencia v Celta Vigo was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Celta Vigo?
In their last 6 meetings, Valencia won 1, Celta Vigo won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Valencia and Celta Vigo?
Recent form — Valencia 3W 0D 2L; Celta Vigo 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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