Chelsea v Leeds result

Full-time · Chelsea 6–3 Leeds

League Cup · Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:00 BST · Stamford Bridge

Updated 23 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Chelsea · Leeds · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Chelsea 6–3 Leeds — Chelsea won this League Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.60 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Chelsea beat Leeds 6–3 at Stamford Bridge in the League Cup on Wednesday 9 September. Chelsea have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Leeds have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Chelsea came from behind: Leeds led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Leeds: Tarik Muharemović (23’, assisted by Harry Wilson), Brenden Aaronson (48’, assisted by Lukas Nmecha) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (75’, assisted by Noah Okafor); Chelsea: Cole Palmer (53’ pen; 55’, assisted by Morgan Rogers), Pedro Neto (60’, assisted by Morgan Rogers), Daniel Welbeck (65’, assisted by Morgan Rogers; 90’, assisted by Valentín Barco) and Valentín Barco (80’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s nine key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pedro Neto’s goal on 60 minutes.

Discipline

J. Gillett showed one yellow card — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (all competitions).

What it changes

Leeds are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Valentín Barco (Chelsea) 15.0, Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) 11.2 and Cole Palmer (Chelsea) 11.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Chelsea next host Tottenham on 24 October 2026.

Leeds next travel to Sunderland on 25 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Chelsea: Chelsea v Tottenham, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Leeds: Sunderland v Leeds, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Chelsea 6–3 Leeds · League Cup
Venue: Stamford Bridge · London
Referee: J. Gillett
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Chelsea 3 · draws 1 · Leeds 2 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Chelsea 3W 0D 2L · Leeds 2W 2D 1L

Chelsea 6–3 Leeds (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 23 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.5 / 0.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

3.88 / 4.13

Corners

against 5 / 5.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.38 / 3.88

Shots on target

against 4.75 / 4.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

3.13 / 2

Cards

against 2.38 / 2.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Chelsea for / against	Line	Leeds for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.25 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.88 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.13 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.88 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.38 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.88 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.88 for · 13.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.13 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3.13 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: J. Gillett.

Chelsea

Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Delap n 8	42.1	2.1 4/3	0.8 3/0	—
W. Fofana n 8	75.9	1.8 6/3	1 6/1	—
Estêvão n 8	46.4	1.7 4/2	1.7 3/3	—
Andrey Santos n 8	45.8	1.7 5/1	1.5 5/1	—
E. Fernández n 8	84.3	1.6 5/4	1.3 6/3	—

Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Estêvão n 8	46.4	2.7 5/4	1.2 4/1
C. Palmer n 8	89	2.5 6/6	1.4 6/4
João Pedro n 8	80.4	2.1 8/5	0.7 4/1
V. Barco n 8	55.6	1.4 4/2	0.6 2/1
E. Fernández n 8	84.3	1.3 4/3	0.7 4/1

Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
João Pedro n 8	80.4	0.4 3/0	0.3 2/0
Estêvão n 8	46.4	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
M. Rogers n 8	68.9	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
C. Palmer n 8	89	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
E. Fernández n 8	84.3	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0

Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Andrey Santos n 8	45.8	4.2 7/4
M. Gusto n 8	48.3	2.8 7/3
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	49.3	2.3 4/2
J. Hato n 8	57.9	2.1 6/5
R. Lavia n 8	51.8	2 5/2

Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Penders n 8	90	4.6 7/7
E. Martínez n 8	101.3	3.4 5/5
Robert Sánchez n 8	87	3.1 6/5

Leeds

Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
S. Longstaff n 8	20.8	2.7 4/1	0.5 1/0	—
F. Buonanotte n 8	38.1	2.1 4/2	0.6 2/0	—
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 8	75.6	1.8 7/4	0.7 4/1	—
E. Ampadu n 8	90.9	1.6 8/3	1 4/3	—
A. Stach n 8	71.6	1.6 5/3	1.9 7/3	—

Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Piroe n 8	46.5	3.1 7/4	1.9 4/2
D. James n 8	46	2.2 6/3	1.2 4/1
S. Longstaff n 8	20.8	2.2 3/1	1.6 3/0
F. Buonanotte n 8	38.1	2.1 4/3	1.2 4/0
L. Nmecha n 8	38.6	2 6/1	0.6 2/0

Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
S. Longstaff n 8	20.8	0.5 1/0	0.5 1/0
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 8	75.6	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
J. Piroe n 8	46.5	0.5 2/0	0 0/0
J. Bogle n 8	67.5	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
D. James n 8	46	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 8	90	3.4 8/7
A. Tanaka n 8	66.1	3.4 8/7
A. Stach n 8	71.6	3 7/7
J. Bogle n 8	67.5	2.7 6/4
F. Buonanotte n 8	38.1	2.7 4/2

Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Darlow n 8	90	4 6/5
J. Trafford n 8	84.4	2.4 6/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Chelsea		Leeds
49%	Possession	51%
16	Shots	18
8	Shots on target	6
5	Shots off target	4
3	Blocked shots	8
9	Shots inside the box	15
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
6	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	2
483	Passes	489

Chelsea player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Joshua Kofi Acheampong	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.6
M. Penders	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.8
M. Lacroix	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
Pep Chavarría	90	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	6
V. Barco	90	1	1	4	1	1	7	0	8.8
D. Welbeck	90	2	0	3	2	0	0	0	8.8
Levi Colwill	76	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
M. Rogers	45	0	3	0	0	4	1	0	8.1
C. Palmer	45	2	0	5	2	2	1	0	8.2
Pedro Neto	45	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	7.8
R. James	45	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6
Reggie Watson	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.2
M. Gusto	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.4
J. Bynoe-Gittens	45	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	6.1
Estêvão	45	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5.9
W. Fofana	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.9

Leeds player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
H. Wilson	90	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.5
T. Muharemović	90	1	0	3	2	2	0	7.8
J. Justin	90	0	0	1	0	0	7	5.6
J. Bijol	90	0	0	1	1	1	1	6.6
E. Ampadu	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.1
M. Zetterer	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.8
M. Bard	78	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.4
S. Longstaff	67	0	0	1	0	0	3	6.3
B. Aaronson	67	1	0	3	2	0	0	7.1
L. Nmecha	66	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.6
D. James	66	0	0	1	0	1	1	6
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	24	1	0	1	1	1	0	7.6
A. Stach	24	0	0	2	0	1	2	6.2
N. Okafor	23	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.8
A. Tanaka	23	0	0	4	0	0	0	5.7
G. Gudmundsson	12	0	0	1	0	1	0	5.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Chelsea v Leeds — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ChelseaLWWWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

LeedsLWWDD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Chelsea 3 · 1 draw · Leeds 2 · 3 goals/game

2026-04-26 Chelsea 1–0 Leeds
2026-02-10 Chelsea 2–2 Leeds
2025-12-03 Leeds 3–1 Chelsea
2024-02-28 Chelsea 3–2 Leeds
2023-03-04 Chelsea 1–0 Leeds
2022-08-21 Leeds 3–0 Chelsea

Goals per game

Chelsea scored2.2

Leeds scored1

Chelsea conceded1.8

Leeds conceded1

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Chelsea v Leeds?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Chelsea v Leeds was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.60 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Leeds?: In their last 6 meetings, Chelsea won 3, Leeds won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Leeds?: Recent form — Chelsea 3W 0D 2L; Leeds 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s boards

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Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 23 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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