Chelsea v Leeds result

Full-time · Chelsea 6–3 Leeds

League Cup · · Stamford Bridge

Updated · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Chelsea 6–3 Leeds — Chelsea won this League Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.60 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Chelsea beat Leeds 6–3 at Stamford Bridge in the League Cup on Wednesday 9 September. Chelsea have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Leeds have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Chelsea came from behind: Leeds led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Leeds: Tarik Muharemović (23’, assisted by Harry Wilson), Brenden Aaronson (48’, assisted by Lukas Nmecha) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (75’, assisted by Noah Okafor); Chelsea: Cole Palmer (53’ pen; 55’, assisted by Morgan Rogers), Pedro Neto (60’, assisted by Morgan Rogers), Daniel Welbeck (65’, assisted by Morgan Rogers; 90’, assisted by Valentín Barco) and Valentín Barco (80’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s nine key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pedro Neto’s goal on 60 minutes.

Discipline

J. Gillett showed one yellow card — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (all competitions).

What it changes

Leeds are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Valentín Barco (Chelsea) 15.0, Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) 11.2 and Cole Palmer (Chelsea) 11.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Chelsea next host Tottenham on 24 October 2026.

Leeds next travel to Sunderland on 25 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Chelsea: Chelsea v Tottenham, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Leeds: Sunderland v Leeds, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Chelsea 6–3 Leeds · League Cup
  • Venue: Stamford Bridge · London
  • Referee: J. Gillett
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Chelsea 3 · draws 1 · Leeds 2 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Chelsea 3W 0D 2L · Leeds 2W 2D 1L

Chelsea 6–3 Leeds (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 23 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.5 / 0.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
3.88 / 4.13
Corners
against 5 / 5.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 3.88
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 4.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 2
Cards
against 2.38 / 2.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameChelsea for / againstLineLeeds for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
3our book
1.25 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
3.88 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
4.13 for · 5.88 against n 8
Shots
13 for · 12.38 against n 8
19.5standard
11.88 for · 15.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4.38 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
3.88 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.88 for · 13.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.13 for · 12.25 against n 8
Cards shown
3.13 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: J. Gillett.

Chelsea
Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Delap n 842.1
2.14/3
0.83/0
—
W. Fofana n 875.9
1.86/3
16/1
—
Estêvão n 846.4
1.74/2
1.73/3
—
Andrey Santos n 845.8
1.75/1
1.55/1
—
E. Fernández n 884.3
1.65/4
1.36/3
—
Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Estêvão n 846.4
2.75/4
1.24/1
C. Palmer n 889
2.56/6
1.46/4
João Pedro n 880.4
2.18/5
0.74/1
V. Barco n 855.6
1.44/2
0.62/1
E. Fernández n 884.3
1.34/3
0.74/1
Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
João Pedro n 880.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
Estêvão n 846.4
0.52/0
0.21/0
M. Rogers n 868.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
C. Palmer n 889
0.43/0
0.11/0
E. Fernández n 884.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Andrey Santos n 845.8
4.27/4
M. Gusto n 848.3
2.87/3
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 849.3
2.34/2
J. Hato n 857.9
2.16/5
R. Lavia n 851.8
25/2
Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Penders n 890
4.67/7
E. Martínez n 8101.3
3.45/5
Robert Sánchez n 887
3.16/5
Leeds
Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Longstaff n 820.8
2.74/1
0.51/0
—
F. Buonanotte n 838.1
2.14/2
0.62/0
—
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 875.6
1.87/4
0.74/1
—
E. Ampadu n 890.9
1.68/3
14/3
—
A. Stach n 871.6
1.65/3
1.97/3
—
Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Piroe n 846.5
3.17/4
1.94/2
D. James n 846
2.26/3
1.24/1
S. Longstaff n 820.8
2.23/1
1.63/0
F. Buonanotte n 838.1
2.14/3
1.24/0
L. Nmecha n 838.6
26/1
0.62/0
Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Longstaff n 820.8
0.51/0
0.51/0
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 875.6
0.64/0
00/0
J. Piroe n 846.5
0.52/0
00/0
J. Bogle n 867.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
D. James n 846
0.21/0
0.21/0
Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 890
3.48/7
A. Tanaka n 866.1
3.48/7
A. Stach n 871.6
37/7
J. Bogle n 867.5
2.76/4
F. Buonanotte n 838.1
2.74/2
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Darlow n 890
46/5
J. Trafford n 884.4
2.46/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ChelseaLeeds
49%Possession51%
16Shots18
8Shots on target6
5Shots off target4
3Blocked shots8
9Shots inside the box15
3Corners5
2Offsides1
6Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
3Saves2
483Passes489

Chelsea player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joshua Kofi Acheampong9000000306.6
M. Penders9000000005.8
M. Lacroix9000000106.2
Pep Chavarría9000002306
V. Barco9011411708.8
D. Welbeck9020320008.8
Levi Colwill7600000106.3
M. Rogers4503004108.1
C. Palmer4520522108.2
Pedro Neto4510110107.8
R. James4500100106
Reggie Watson45000002Y6.2
M. Gusto4500000005.4
J. Bynoe-Gittens4500221006.1
Estêvão4500001105.9
W. Fofana1400000005.9

Leeds player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
H. Wilson9001002006.5
T. Muharemović9010322007.8
J. Justin9000100705.6
J. Bijol9000111106.6
E. Ampadu9000000306.1
M. Zetterer9000000005.8
M. Bard7800000306.4
S. Longstaff6700100306.3
B. Aaronson6710320007.1
L. Nmecha6601001006.6
D. James6600101106
Dominic Calvert-Lewin2410111007.6
A. Stach2400201206.2
N. Okafor2301002006.8
A. Tanaka2300400005.7
G. Gudmundsson1200101005.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Chelsea v Leeds — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ChelseaLWWWL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
LeedsLWWDD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Chelsea 3 · 1 draw · Leeds 2 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-04-26 Chelsea 1–0 Leeds
  • 2026-02-10 Chelsea 2–2 Leeds
  • 2025-12-03 Leeds 3–1 Chelsea
  • 2024-02-28 Chelsea 3–2 Leeds
  • 2023-03-04 Chelsea 1–0 Leeds
  • 2022-08-21 Leeds 3–0 Chelsea
Goals per game
Chelsea scored2.2
Leeds scored1
Chelsea conceded1.8
Leeds conceded1

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Chelsea v Leeds?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Chelsea v Leeds was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.60 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Leeds?
In their last 6 meetings, Chelsea won 3, Leeds won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Leeds?
Recent form — Chelsea 3W 0D 2L; Leeds 2W 2D 1L.

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