Watford v Crawley Town result

Full-time · Watford 1–0 Crawley Town

League Cup · Sat, 08 Aug 2026 15:00 BST · Vicarage Road

Updated 22 Aug 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Watford · Crawley Town

The model’s pre-match pick

Watford 1–0 Crawley Town — Watford won this League Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.53 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Watford beat Crawley Town 1–0 at Vicarage Road in the League Cup on Saturday 8 August.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Watford: Marc Bola (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Marc Bola’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Watford 0.00, Crawley Town 0.00, from 36 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

H. Wager showed five yellow cards — against 4.5 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Watford: Edoardo Bove (24’) and Iker Bravo (63’); Crawley Town: Charlie Barker (62’), Kellan Gordon (67’) and P. Aderoju (90+7’).

What it changes

Watford sit 16th on three points from one game with a goal difference of +1 (2026/27 so far).

Crawley Town sit 10th on three points from two games with a goal difference of +1 (2026/27 so far).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Marc Bola (Watford) 8.6, Ade Adeyemo (Crawley Town) 8.5 and Jude Arthurs (Crawley Town) 6.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Watford next host Middlesbrough on 7 November 2026.

Crawley Town next travel to Wimborne Town on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Watford: Watford v Middlesbrough, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Crawley Town: Wimborne Town v Crawley Town, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Watford 1–0 Crawley Town · League Cup
Venue: Vicarage Road · Watford
Referee: H. Wager
Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Watford 0W 0D 5L · Crawley Town 1W 3D 1L

Watford 1–0 Crawley Town (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 22 August 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.38 / 1.25

Goals

against 2.38 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

5.75 / 3.13

Corners

against 5 / 6.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.88 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 6.25 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.5 / 1.75

Cards

against 2.88 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Watford for / against	Line	Crawley Town for / against
Goals scored	0.38 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.75 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.13 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.88 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.25 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.88 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.13 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.5 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: H. Wager.

Crawley Town

Crawley Town Goalkeeper

Crawley Town — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
V. Mannone	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Crawley Town Defensive

Crawley Town — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Adeyemo	1	9090 min	22 /90	11 /90	00 /90	44 /90	00 /90	00 /90
C. Barker	1	9090 min	00 /90	00 /90	33 /90	44 /90	22 /90	11 /90
P. Farquharson	1	8282 min	11.1 /90	11.1 /90	11.1 /90	44.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90
K. Gordon	1	5353 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.7 /90	00 /90
Johnny Russell	1	3737 min	00 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90	37.3 /90	24.9 /90	12.4 /90
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Crawley Town — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crawley Town before kick-off, to 3 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Barker n 8	90	1.3 6/3	1.9 7/4	—
L. Watson n 8	58.3	0.8 3/1	1.4 4/2	—
A. Adeyemo n 8	79.1	0.3 2/0	0.7 3/2	—
K. Gordon n 8	78.3	1 4/2	1.6 7/3	—
Johnny Russell n 8	42.8	2.6 6/3	0.5 2/0	—
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Crawley Town — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crawley Town before kick-off, to 3 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Adeyemo n 8	79.1	2.7 7/7
C. Barker n 8	90	1.1 5/3
L. Watson n 8	58.3	1 4/1
K. Gordon n 8	78.3	0.7 3/2
Johnny Russell n 8	42.8	3.4 6/3
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Crawley Town Attacking

Crawley Town — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
G. Di Biase	1	5454 min	11.7 /90	00 /90	23.3 /90	23.3 /90	11.7 /90	00 /90
Osman Kamara	1	3737 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90
D. Orsi	1	3636 min	12.5 /90	00 /90	12.5 /90	12.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
J. Arthurs	1	9090 min	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
L. Watson	1	9090 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	11 /90
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Crawley Town — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crawley Town before kick-off, to 3 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
L. Watson n 8	58.3	1 3/2	0.6 3/0
A. Adeyemo n 8	79.1	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
C. Barker n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
K. Gordon n 8	78.3	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Johnny Russell n 8	42.8	0.5 2/0	0.3 1/0
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Crawley Town — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crawley Town before kick-off, to 3 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Watson n 8	58.3	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
A. Adeyemo n 8	79.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
C. Barker n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Gordon n 8	78.3	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Johnny Russell n 8	42.8	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Watford		Crawley Town
61%	Possession	39%
36	Shots	9
11	Shots on target	3
12	Shots off target	3
13	Blocked shots	3
25	Shots inside the box	7
12	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
11	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	10
461	Passes	292
85%	Pass accuracy	76%

Watford Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
F. Ravaglia	102	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.6
O. Traoré	102	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.2
M. Pollock	102	0	1	1	0	1	0	7.7
K. Keben	102	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.3
M. Bola	102	1	3	1	0	3	0	8.9
Hector Kyprianou	102	0	2	1	2	3	0	7.6
O. Maamma	77	0	2	2	2	0	0	7.9
Iker Bravo	69	0	3	1	3	0	Y	6.9
E. Bove	68	0	1	1	1	1	Y	6.2
L. Kjerrumgaard	68	0	4	1	2	1	0	6.3
K. Baah	45	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.5
Amin Nabizada sub	57	0	1	0	2	2	0	7.2
E. Kayembe sub	34	0	1	1	1	0	0	7
M. Doumbia sub	34	0	2	1	1	0	0	6.7
M. Payero sub	33	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.9
Rocco Vata sub	25	0	2	1	1	2	0	6.9

Crawley Town Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
V. Mannone	102	0	0	0	0	0	9
C. Barker	102	1	1	0	3	Y	7.9
J. Arthurs	102	0	0	0	7	0	7.2
J. Fourcroy	102	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
L. Watson	102	0	0	1	0	0	6.2
S. Duke-McKenna	102	1	1	2	1	0	6.6
K. Gordon	76	2	1	1	1	Y	6.5
A. Odimayo	76	1	0	0	4	0	7.3
A. Adeyemo	76	1	0	0	7	0	8.2
M. Ebiowei	64	0	0	1	0	0	6.2
G. Di Biase	56	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
P. Aderoju sub	46	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Osman Kamara sub	38	0	0	1	1	0	6.3
Pele Arganese-McDermott sub	26	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
Johnny Russell sub	26	0	0	0	3	0	6.6
Omari Mrisho sub	26	0	0	0	1	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Watford v Crawley Town — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

WatfordLLLLL

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.2 scored / 3.2 conceded per game

Crawley TownLDDDW

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Goals per game

Watford scored0.2

Crawley Town scored1.2

Watford conceded3.2

Crawley Town conceded1.2

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Watford v Crawley Town?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Watford v Crawley Town was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.53 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Watford and Crawley Town?: Recent form — Watford 0W 0D 5L; Crawley Town 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 22 Aug 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.