Burton AlbionAFC Wimbledon

Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon result

Full-time · Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon

League One ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Burton Albion · AFC Wimbledon · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon — Burton Albion won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55% of 140 landed (95% range 46.7–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 1–0 in League One on Saturday 11 April. Burton Albion are unbeaten in the last six meetings with AFC Wimbledon, every meeting checked.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Burton Albion: Kyran Lofthouse (55’, assisted by Jasper Moon).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kyran Lofthouse’s goal on 55 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Burton Albion 2.46, AFC Wimbledon 0.28, from 12 shots to 5 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

M. Woods showed one yellow card — against 3.1 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Burton Albion: Charles Webster (76’).

What it changes

Burton Albion move up from 18th to 15th (43 league matches played). Burton Albion have scored 50 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Burton Albion have conceded 60 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

AFC Wimbledon move down from 16th to 18th (42 league matches played). AFC Wimbledon have scored 51 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). AFC Wimbledon have conceded 72 goals, the third-most of the 24 clubs.

Burton Albion are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. AFC Wimbledon are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions. AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kyran Lofthouse (Burton Albion) 7.5, Jasper Moon (Burton Albion) 6.3 and Andy Cannon (Burton Albion) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 55% of the time in the last 90 days (77 of 140).

Next up

Burton Albion next travel to Milton Keynes Dons on 14 November 2026.

AFC Wimbledon next host Blackpool on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Burton Albion: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for AFC Wimbledon: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon · League One
  • Referee: M. Woods
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Burton Albion 2 · draws 4 · AFC Wimbledon 0 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Burton Albion 1W 2D 2L · AFC Wimbledon 0W 1D 4L

Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 1
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.63 / 7.38
Corners
against 5.38 / 3.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 4
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 4.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.88 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.13 yellows
Referee · M. Woods
23.75 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameBurton Albion for / againstLineAFC Wimbledon for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
1 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
5.63 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
7.38 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
9.63 for · 10.38 against n 8
19.5standard
12.13 for · 11.5 against n 8
Shots on target
3.13 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.13 for · 11.75 against n 8
21.5standard
12.38 for · 9.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 2.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8

Referee: M. Woods — 3.13 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.75 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Burton Albion

Burton Albion Goalkeeper

Burton Albion — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Collins37903330 min1002.7 /90471.3 /9010 /90
K. Dudek390270 min134.3 /9020.7 /9000 /90
Burton Albion — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Collins n 890
2.97/5

Burton Albion Defensive

Burton Albion — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Hartridge36863093 min541.6 /90461.3 /90230.7 /901895.5 /90240.7 /9050.1 /90
T. Sibbick33832732 min591.9 /90280.9 /9090.3 /901304.3 /90230.8 /9030.1 /90
J. Armer33802630 min461.6 /90281 /90170.6 /901374.7 /90200.7 /9040.1 /90
T. Vancooten19821549 min231.3 /90241.4 /9090.5 /901126.5 /90251.5 /9050.3 /90
K. Lofthouse43893833 min741.7 /90350.8 /9070.2 /902876.7 /90541.3 /9070.2 /90
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Burton Albion — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Lofthouse n 890
0.64/1
15/2
A. Smith
J. Beesley n 890
1.98/5
1.66/5
—
B. Collins n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
K. Chauke n 876.4
1.25/3
0.74/1
A. Smith
A. Hartridge n 887.3
0.86/0
0.65/0
S. Seddon
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Burton Albion — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Lofthouse n 890
2.15/5
J. Beesley n 890
1.14/4
K. Chauke n 876.4
1.65/4
A. Hartridge n 887.3
0.85/1
T. Shade n 886
0.31/1
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Burton Albion Attacking

Burton Albion — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Beesley42893738 min130.3 /9080.2 /90731.8 /90310.7 /90360.9 /90130.3 /90
T. Shade36732627 min120.4 /9000 /90642.2 /90411.4 /90240.8 /90491.7 /90
Fábio Tavares1753894 min30.3 /9010.1 /90111.1 /9070.7 /90121.2 /9040.4 /90
Julian Larsson16631013 min00 /9020.2 /90121.1 /9030.3 /90141.2 /9070.6 /90
K. Adom952468 min00 /9010.2 /9071.3 /9030.6 /9051 /9020.4 /90
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Burton Albion — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Lofthouse n 890
0.54/0
0.43/0
J. Beesley n 890
1.87/4
0.95/2
B. Collins n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Chauke n 876.4
0.43/0
0.11/0
A. Hartridge n 887.3
0.32/0
0.32/0
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Burton Albion — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Lofthouse n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
J. Beesley n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
B. Collins n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Chauke n 876.4
00/0
00/0
A. Hartridge n 887.3
0.11/0
00/0
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AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon Defensive

AFC Wimbledon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AFC Wimbledon before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Seddon n 890
0.65/0
0.42/1
A. Hartridge
A. Smith n 886.9
1.46/2
1.45/4
K. Chauke
I. Ogundere n 890
0.64/1
0.43/0
—
R. Johnson n 883.1
0.32/0
0.75/0
—
N. Bishop n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
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AFC Wimbledon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AFC Wimbledon before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Seddon n 890
1.56/3
A. Smith n 886.9
3.18/8
I. Ogundere n 890
2.14/4
R. Johnson n 883.1
26/5
N. Bishop n 890
00/0
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AFC Wimbledon Attacking

AFC Wimbledon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AFC Wimbledon before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Seddon n 890
0.43/0
00/0
A. Smith n 886.9
0.53/1
00/0
I. Ogundere n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Johnson n 883.1
0.85/1
0.43/0
N. Bishop n 890
00/0
00/0
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AFC Wimbledon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AFC Wimbledon before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Seddon n 890
00/0
0.32/0
A. Smith n 886.9
00/0
00/0
I. Ogundere n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Johnson n 883.1
0.32/0
00/0
N. Bishop n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Burton AlbionAFC Wimbledon
56%Possession44%
2.46Expected goals (xG)0.28
12Shots5
3Shots on target1
3Shots off target1
6Blocked shots3
10Shots inside the box3
9Corners2
1Offsides1
9Fouls14
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
1Saves2
376Passes295
65%Pass accuracy63%

Burton Albion Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Collins9000000006.9
U. Godwin-Malife9000001007.3
J. Moon9001003007.9
A. Hartridge9000111108.9
K. Lofthouse9010321206.9
K. Chauke9000000006.9
J. Armer9000000106.9
J. Beesley9000100107.3
T. Shade9000000006.3
C. Webster80000012Y6.9
A. Cannon7400102507.9
Dylan Williams sub1600000006.6
J. McKiernan sub1000000006.7

AFC Wimbledon Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Bishop9000000006.9
I. Ogundere9000000006.3
S. Seddon9000003407.3
A. Smith9000001107
J. Reeves9000110106.3
C. Maycock9000000006.2
Z. Nelson8300000106.3
S. Hutchinson7400000006.3
M. Browne7400000006.5
N. Asiimwe6500001106.3
A. Sasu6500000206.7
J. Tilley sub2500000106.6
Junior Nkeng sub2500000206.6
O. Foyo sub1600000006.3
L. Stewart sub1600100006.3
A. Hackford sub1300000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Burton AlbionLWLDD
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
AFC WimbledonLDLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Burton Albion 2 · 4 draws · AFC Wimbledon 0 · 2 goals/game
  • 2025-10-25 AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Burton Albion
  • 2022-01-22 Burton Albion 1–1 AFC Wimbledon
  • 2021-10-02 AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Burton Albion
  • 2021-03-09 AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Burton Albion
  • 2020-10-24 Burton Albion 1–1 AFC Wimbledon
  • 2020-01-28 AFC Wimbledon 2–2 Burton Albion
League standing · 2025/26
Burton Albion#17 pos54 pts46 pl-10 GD
AFC Wimbledon#19 pos53 pts46 pl-21 GD
Goals per game
Burton Albion scored1.09
AFC Wimbledon scored1.11
Burton Albion conceded1.3
AFC Wimbledon conceded1.57

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
In their last 6 meetings, Burton Albion won 2, AFC Wimbledon won 0 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Recent form — Burton Albion 1W 2D 2L; AFC Wimbledon 0W 1D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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