LutonLeicester

Luton v Leicester result

Full-time · Luton 2–1 Leicester

League One · · Kenilworth Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Luton · Leicester

The model’s pre-match pick

Luton 2–1 Leicester — Luton won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.50 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton beat Leicester 2–1 at Kenilworth Road in League One on Saturday 24 October. Leicester have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Luton led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Luton: Nahki Wells (39’, assisted by Jordan Clark) and Callum Marshall (90+4’); Leicester: Liam Cullen (90’, assisted by E. Riis). John Lundstram (85’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Liam Cullen’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Luton 1.60, Leicester 1.03, from 11 shots to 11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

What it changes

Luton move up from 12th to ninth (11 league matches played). Luton have scored 27 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Luton have conceded 21 goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Leicester move down from ninth to 12th (11 league matches played). Leicester have scored 22 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 13 games, ranked per game). Leicester have conceded 19 goals, the 12th-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, W. O'Hora (Leicester) 6.1, Alex McCarthy (Leicester) 5.4 and William Alves (Leicester) 5.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Luton next host Forest Green on 7 November 2026.

Leicester next travel to Oxford City on 6 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Luton: Luton v Forest Green, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Leicester: Oxford City v Leicester, Friday 6 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Luton 2–1 Leicester · League One
  • Venue: Kenilworth Road · Luton, Bedfordshire
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): Luton 0 · draws 0 · Leicester 1 · 4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Luton 2W 0D 3L · Leicester 3W 1D 1L

Luton 2–1 Leicester (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.75
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.63 / 6.88
Corners
against 4 / 6.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 6.38
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 4.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 1.88
Cards
against 2.63 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLuton for / againstLineLeicester for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.25our book
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.63 for · 4 against n 8
9.5standard
6.88 for · 6.38 against n 8
Shots
16.38 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
17.13 for · 12.25 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
6.38 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.75 for · 13.63 against n 8
21.5standard
9.75 for · 13.13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 2.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.88 against n 8

Luton

Luton Goalkeeper

Luton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Joshua Keeley890720 min172.1 /90141.8 /9000 /90
J. Shea490360 min123 /9020.5 /9000 /90
Luton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Joshua Keeley n 890
2.15/1
J. Shea n 885.8
2.96/4

Luton Defensive

Luton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Johnston12871048 min100.9 /9070.6 /90100.9 /90695.9 /9050.4 /9020.2 /90
H. Odoffin1184928 min212 /90161.6 /9070.7 /90757.3 /9090.9 /9000 /90
M. Andersen889714 min70.9 /90162 /9030.4 /90526.6 /90101.3 /9020.3 /90
K. Naismith777540 min193.2 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90467.7 /9061 /9020.3 /90
H. Ashby660357 min112.8 /9041 /9010.3 /90246.1 /9030.8 /9020.5 /90
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Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Johnston n 886
0.54/0
0.54/0
H. Souttar
L. Walsh n 886.4
1.68/3
1.87/4
L. Page
K. Palmer n 865.6
1.55/2
1.95/4
S. Braybrooke
H. Odoffin n 882.4
0.84/2
1.25/3
—
J. Richards n 850.6
0.73/0
2.77/3
—
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Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Johnston n 886
1.26/3
L. Walsh n 886.4
1.65/4
K. Palmer n 865.6
2.16/4
H. Odoffin n 882.4
2.68/6
J. Richards n 850.6
1.65/2
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Luton Attacking

Luton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
I. Jones1157625 min00 /9000 /9010.1 /9000 /90111.6 /90101.4 /90
N. Wells1157624 min71 /9020.3 /90233.3 /90152.2 /9040.6 /9030.4 /90
C. Marshall948429 min20.4 /9000 /90132.7 /9040.8 /9051 /9020.4 /90
G. Kodua746322 min10.3 /9010.3 /9092.5 /9041.1 /9082.2 /9061.7 /90
S. Morris12222 min00 /9000 /9014.1 /9014.1 /9000 /9014.1 /90
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Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Johnston n 886
0.11/0
00/0
L. Walsh n 886.4
0.32/0
00/0
K. Palmer n 865.6
2.48/5
0.94/1
H. Odoffin n 882.4
0.84/1
0.32/0
J. Richards n 850.6
0.73/0
00/0
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Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Johnston n 886
00/0
0.11/0
L. Walsh n 886.4
00/0
00/0
K. Palmer n 865.6
0.21/0
0.21/0
H. Odoffin n 882.4
00/0
00/0
J. Richards n 850.6
00/0
00/0
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Leicester

Leicester Goalkeeper

Leicester — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. McCarthy989804 min273 /90141.6 /9000 /90
J. Stolarczyk393279 min92.9 /9031 /9000 /90
Leicester — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leicester before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. McCarthy n 889.3
3.38/5
J. Stolarczyk n 892.1
24/3

Leicester Defensive

Leicester — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Thomas12901076 min231.9 /90131.1 /9040.3 /90574.8 /90161.3 /9020.2 /90
H. Souttar991819 min80.9 /90161.8 /9030.3 /90374.1 /9091 /9020.2 /90
Jayden Joseph778543 min111.8 /9050.8 /9000 /90315.1 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90
C. Okoli690537 min61 /9081.3 /9010.2 /90305 /9081.3 /9000 /90
W. O'Hora580401 min71.6 /9051.1 /9000 /90112.5 /9030.7 /9000 /90
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Leicester — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leicester before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Thomas n 890
1.87/4
1.45/3
—
S. Braybrooke n 871.4
0.95/1
1.36/2
K. Palmer
L. Page n 886.6
1.26/2
2.38/6
L. Walsh
W. Alves n 877.5
0.74/1
0.63/1
—
H. Souttar n 890
1.16/2
0.42/1
G. Johnston
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Leicester — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leicester before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Thomas n 890
2.18/7
S. Braybrooke n 871.4
0.84/1
L. Page n 886.6
0.93/3
W. Alves n 877.5
0.94/2
H. Souttar n 890
14/3
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Leicester Attacking

Leicester — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
B. De Cordova-Reid957515 min00 /9010.2 /90132.3 /9030.5 /9071.2 /9010.2 /90
Wes Burns945405 min10.2 /9010.2 /9020.4 /9010.2 /9051.1 /9030.7 /90
T. Watson747327 min00 /9000 /90102.8 /9051.4 /90113 /9041.1 /90
E. Riis681487 min40.7 /9000 /90152.8 /90101.8 /9071.3 /9000 /90
A. Bristrić549243 min00 /9000 /9041.5 /9020.7 /9041.5 /9020.7 /90
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Leicester — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leicester before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Thomas n 890
0.63/1
0.42/1
S. Braybrooke n 871.4
26/3
1.36/2
L. Page n 886.6
0.86/0
0.11/0
W. Alves n 877.5
1.56/3
0.43/0
H. Souttar n 890
0.85/1
0.43/0
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Leicester — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leicester before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Thomas n 890
0.11/0
0.43/0
S. Braybrooke n 871.4
00/0
0.51/1
L. Page n 886.6
00/0
0.42/1
W. Alves n 877.5
0.32/0
0.11/0
H. Souttar n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LutonLeicester
42%Possession58%
1.60Expected goals (xG)1.03
11Shots11
8Shots on target4
1Shots off target6
2Blocked shots1
9Shots inside the box7
9Corners8
3Offsides3
8Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
3Saves6
373Passes512

Luton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Andersen9000001107.4
K. Naismith9000112007.4
I. Jones9000001306.8
G. Johnston9000000006.6
J. Donley9000001006.6
J. Clark9001112107.6
J. Shea9000000006.9
L. Walsh9000003206.5
K. Palmer85002113Y6.3
N. Wells76103200Y7.7
T. Mendel-Idowu6400110106.1
J. Richards2600110006.7
C. Marshall1410110007.5
Emilio Lawrence500100006.5

Leicester Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Thomas9000300206.1
H. Souttar90000001Y6.7
E. Riis9001002006.6
W. Alves9000112406.3
A. McCarthy9000000007.7
W. O'Hora8900100506.9
J. Lundstram85001001R5.5
K. Doyle8300111306.7
S. Braybrooke7300101206.2
L. Page4500001306.3
C. Okoli4500100506.1
Wes Burns45000002Y5.8
W. Smallbone4500000006
C. Chaplin1700110006.5
L. Cullen710110007.8
B. De Cordova-Reid100000106.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Luton v Leicester — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LutonLLWLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
LeicesterWDLWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
Luton 0 · 0 draws · Leicester 1 · 4 goals/game
  • 2019-09-24 Luton 0–4 Leicester
League standing · 2026/27
Luton#4 pos24 pts14 pl+6 GD
Leicester#10 pos19 pts13 pl+3 GD
Goals per game
Luton scored1.93
Leicester scored1.69
Luton conceded1.5
Leicester conceded1.46

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Luton v Leicester?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Luton v Leicester was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.50 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Luton and Leicester?
In their last 1 meetings, Luton won 0, Leicester won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Luton and Leicester?
Recent form — Luton 2W 0D 3L; Leicester 3W 1D 1L.

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