Accrington ST v Grimsby result

Full-time · Accrington ST 1–1 Grimsby

League Two · Sat, 23 Aug 2025 15:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Accrington ST · Grimsby · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Accrington ST 1–1 Grimsby — this League Two match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1431 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Accrington ST and Grimsby drew 1–1 in League Two on Saturday 23 August. Grimsby are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

Grimsby led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Grimsby: J. Kabia (26’, assisted by Reece Staunton); Accrington ST: Tyler Walton (65’, assisted by Alex Henderson).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tyler Walton’s goal on 65 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Accrington ST 0.00, Grimsby 0.00, from 11 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

R. Martin showed five yellow cards — against 3.0 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Accrington ST: J. Bauress (21’), Donald Love (71’), Tyler Walton (75’), I. Sinclair (88’) and Alex Henderson (90’).

What it changes

Accrington ST move down from 19th to 20th (four league matches played). Accrington ST have scored 41 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 41 games, ranked per game). Accrington ST have conceded 50 goals, the 12th-most of the 24 clubs.

Grimsby move down from second to third (five league matches played). Grimsby have scored 63 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 41 games, ranked per game). Grimsby have conceded 42 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Grimsby have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, T. Warren (Grimsby) 6.8, Reece Staunton (Grimsby) 6.5 and Oliver Wright (Accrington ST) 6.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Grimsby, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (975 of 1431).

Next up

Accrington ST next travel to Port Vale on 14 November 2026.

Grimsby next travel to Stafford Rangers on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Accrington ST: Port Vale v Accrington ST, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Grimsby: Stafford Rangers v Grimsby, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Accrington ST 1–1 Grimsby · League Two
Referee: R. Martin
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Accrington ST 3 · draws 1 · Grimsby 2 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Accrington ST 2W 1D 2L · Grimsby 4W 1D 0L

Accrington ST 1–1 Grimsby (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.13 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

2.5 / 7.75

Corners

against 6 / 4.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

3.83 / 4.38

Shots on target

against 2.5 / 3.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

3.17 / 1.25

Cards

against 1.67 / 2.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

3 yellows

Referee · R. Martin

20.1 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 10 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 19 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Accrington ST for / against	Line	Grimsby for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.75 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	2.5 for · 6 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	7.75 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	10 for · 12.17 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	14.75 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.83 for · 2.5 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	4.38 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	14 for · 15 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	9 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3.17 for · 1.67 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	1.25 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: R. Martin — 3 yellow cards a game, 0.1 red cards, 20.1 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Accrington ST

Accrington ST Defensive

Accrington ST — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Devon Matthews n 8	90	1.4 7/2	2 7/6	—
F. Rawson n 8	89.3	1.1 6/2	0.9 5/2	H. Rodgers
J. Woods n 8	61.1	0.7 4/0	1.8 6/2	—
F. Sass n 4	90	1.5 4/2	0.3 1/0	—
I. Sinclair n 4	80	0.6 2/0	3.1 4/3	D. Burns
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Accrington ST — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Rawson n 8	89.3	1.1 6/2
Devon Matthews n 8	90	0.8 4/2
J. Woods n 8	61.1	1.7 3/3
F. Sass n 4	90	1.8 4/2
I. Sinclair n 4	80	1.4 3/2
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Accrington ST Attacking

Accrington ST — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Devon Matthews n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.1 1/0
F. Rawson n 8	89.3	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
J. Woods n 8	61.1	2.2 6/4	1.3 5/2
F. Sass n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. Sinclair n 4	80	1.4 3/1	0.6 2/0
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Accrington ST — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Rawson n 8	89.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Devon Matthews n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Woods n 8	61.1	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
F. Sass n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. Sinclair n 4	80	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Grimsby

Grimsby Defensive

Grimsby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Grimsby before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Pym n 5	90	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0	—
D. Tharme n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
H. Rodgers n 8	81.9	0.3 2/0	0.5 4/0	F. Rawson
E. Khouri n 8	76.9	0.6 4/0	2.3 7/5	—
D. Burns n 8	58.9	1.3 5/2	1.7 5/2	I. Sinclair
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Grimsby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Grimsby before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Tharme n 8	90	1.1 7/2
C. Pym n 5	90	0 0/0
H. Rodgers n 8	81.9	0.7 4/1
E. Khouri n 8	76.9	1.3 5/2
D. Burns n 8	58.9	1.3 5/1
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Grimsby Attacking

Grimsby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Grimsby before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Pym n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Tharme n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Rodgers n 8	81.9	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
E. Khouri n 8	76.9	1.3 5/3	0.3 2/0
D. Burns n 8	58.9	0.8 3/1	0.2 1/0
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Grimsby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Grimsby before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Pym n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Tharme n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Rodgers n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
E. Khouri n 8	76.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
D. Burns n 8	58.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Accrington ST		Grimsby
42%	Possession	58%
11	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots off target	5
2	Blocked shots	4
7	Shots inside the box	10
5	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
25	Fouls	7
5	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	2
271	Passes	382
58%	Pass accuracy	65%

Accrington ST Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Oliver Wright	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.6
Devon Matthews	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.7
Benn David Ward	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
J. Bauress	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.6
F. Sass	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
I. Sinclair	90	0	0	1	1	0	1	Y	6.6
T. Walton	84	1	0	2	1	0	1	Y	7.2
P. Madden	84	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.5
F. Rawson	78	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.2
S. Conneely	54	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.2
C. Brown	53	0	0	1	0	0	6	0	6.9
Alex Henderson sub	38	0	1	1	1	2	1	Y	7
D. Love sub	37	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	7
J. Woods sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
K. Mooney sub	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
C. Caton sub	13	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.2

Grimsby Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
C. Pym	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
H. Rodgers	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.7
T. Warren	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	7.5
C. McJannet	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
R. Staunton	90	0	1	1	0	3	3	7.2
G. McEachran	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	7
G. Turi	90	0	0	0	0	2	4	6.3
E. Khouri	90	0	0	2	1	0	0	6.7
Jaze Kabia	89	1	0	5	3	1	2	6.7
Justin Amaluzor	84	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.3
D. Burns	61	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
C. Vernam sub	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Cameron Gardner sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Rose sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Accrington ST v Grimsby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Accrington STDWLWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

GrimsbyWDWWW

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Accrington ST 3 · 1 draw · Grimsby 2 · 3.33 goals/game

2025-01-01 Accrington ST 3–2 Grimsby
2024-12-03 Grimsby 5–2 Accrington ST
2024-02-03 Accrington ST 0–0 Grimsby
2023-10-14 Grimsby 0–2 Accrington ST
2017-12-30 Grimsby 0–3 Accrington ST
2017-09-12 Accrington ST 1–2 Grimsby

League standing · 2025/26

Accrington ST#16 pos53 pts46 pl-11 GD

Grimsby#7 pos78 pts46 pl+24 GD

Goals per game

Accrington ST scored1.02

Grimsby scored1.61

Accrington ST conceded1.26

Grimsby conceded1.09

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Accrington ST v Grimsby?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Accrington ST v Grimsby was Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Grimsby?: In their last 6 meetings, Accrington ST won 3, Grimsby won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Accrington ST and Grimsby?: Recent form — Accrington ST 2W 1D 2L; Grimsby 4W 1D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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