Crewe v Bristol Rovers result

Full-time · Crewe 3–1 Bristol Rovers

League Two · Sat, 03 Oct 2026 15:00 BST · Mornflake Stadium

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 12:25 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Crewe · Bristol Rovers · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Crewe 3–1 Bristol Rovers — Crewe won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.33 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Crewe beat Bristol Rovers 3–1 at Mornflake Stadium in League Two on Saturday 3 October. It is Crewe’s first win over Bristol Rovers since 1 May 2021, after three meetings without one (the 5 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Crewe led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Crewe: Jack Lankester (1’, assisted by Joel Tabiner; 21’ pen) and Jordan Gibson (66’, assisted by Joshua March); Bristol Rovers: Bobby-Emmanuel Kamwa (90’, assisted by Clinton Mola).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jack Lankester’s goal on 1 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Bristol Rovers out-shot Crewe 15 to 9 and created the better chances, 1.93 xG to 1.31 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.

Discipline

M. Russell showed eight yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Crewe: Joshua March (8’), J. Stephenson (10’), Owen Lunt (38’) and Conor Thomas (79’); Bristol Rovers: Thomas James (8’), Ciarán Kelly (30’), Keenan Gough (77’) and Clinton Mola (89’).

What it changes

Crewe move up from seventh to second (nine league matches played). Crewe have scored 11 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games, ranked per game). Crewe have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Bristol Rovers move down from second to fourth (nine league matches played). Bristol Rovers have scored 14 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games, ranked per game). Bristol Rovers have conceded 14 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs.

Crewe are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions. Crewe have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jack Lankester (Crewe) 10.9, Luke Offord (Crewe) 9.2 and Clinton Mola (Bristol Rovers) 6.4 led the match.

Head-to-head

Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Crewe.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Crewe or Bristol Rovers (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Crewe next host AFC Wimbledon on 7 November 2026.

Bristol Rovers next host Chesterfield on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Crewe: Crewe v AFC Wimbledon, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Crewe 3–1 Bristol Rovers · League Two
Venue: Mornflake Stadium · Crewe, Cheshire
Referee: M. Russell
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 5): Crewe 2 · draws 1 · Bristol Rovers 2 · 3.4 goals/game
Recent form: Crewe 0W 5D 0L · Bristol Rovers 3W 0D 2L

Crewe 3–1 Bristol Rovers (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

5 / 6.13

Corners

against 6.88 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.88 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 5.38 / 3.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1 / 2.13

Cards

against 1.5 / 1.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Crewe for / against	Line	Bristol Rovers for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.13 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.13 for · 18.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16.38 for · 9.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.88 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.63 for · 12.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.38 for · 8.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: M. Russell.

Crewe

Crewe Goalkeeper

Crewe — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
T. Booth	10	90900 min	383.8 /90	80.8 /90	00 /90

Crewe — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crewe before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
T. Booth n 8	90	4.1 8/7

Crewe Defensive

Crewe — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Offord	10	86863 min	80.8 /90	181.9 /90	40.4 /90	454.7 /90	121.3 /90	10.1 /90
L. Billington	10	83830 min	70.8 /90	101.1 /90	30.3 /90	313.4 /90	40.4 /90	10.1 /90
J. Stephenson	8	85683 min	60.8 /90	202.6 /90	50.7 /90	435.7 /90	30.4 /90	10.1 /90
R. Hutchinson	7	81564 min	213.4 /90	81.3 /90	20.3 /90	416.5 /90	81.3 /90	00 /90
M. Demetriou	7	62437 min	51 /90	20.4 /90	132.7 /90	418.4 /90	61.2 /90	30.6 /90
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Crewe — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crewe before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
T. Booth n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
L. Offord n 8	85.4	1.3 6/4	1.3 5/3	K. Balmer
L. Billington n 8	81.3	0.3 2/0	0.4 2/1	K. Balmer
J. Gibson n 8	56.4	0.6 2/1	0.4 2/0	—
J. March n 8	88.4	1.3 6/3	2.4 6/4	—
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Crewe — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crewe before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Offord n 8	85.4	0.9 5/2
L. Billington n 8	81.3	0.8 4/1
J. Gibson n 8	56.4	1.6 6/2
J. March n 8	88.4	1 4/3
M. Holíček n 8	83.6	2.8 7/4
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Crewe Attacking

Crewe — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
J. March	9	89797 min	30.3 /90	00 /90	161.8 /90	40.5 /90	101.1 /90	30.3 /90
C. McNeill	8	39310 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	92.6 /90	51.5 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90
A. Thibaut	6	45269 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	31 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90
J. Gibson	10	60600 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	142.1 /90	50.8 /90	111.7 /90	172.6 /90
M. Holíček	9	84759 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	70.8 /90	20.2 /90
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Crewe — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crewe before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
T. Booth n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Offord n 8	85.4	0.5 3/1	0.4 3/0
L. Billington n 8	81.3	0.8 6/0	0.1 1/0
J. Gibson n 8	56.4	1.6 5/2	0.8 3/1
J. March n 8	88.4	1.8 6/3	0.5 3/1
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Crewe — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Crewe before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
T. Booth n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Offord n 8	85.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
L. Billington n 8	81.3	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
J. Gibson n 8	56.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
J. March n 8	88.4	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
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Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers Goalkeeper

Bristol Rovers — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Brad Young	9	90810 min	151.7 /90	121.3 /90	00 /90

Bristol Rovers — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Brad Young n 8	90	1.6 4/2

Bristol Rovers Defensive

Bristol Rovers — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
K. Balmer	9	85763 min	121.4 /90	80.9 /90	10.1 /90	404.7 /90	50.6 /90	30.4 /90
B. Purrington	7	90630 min	172.4 /90	81.1 /90	00 /90	456.4 /90	50.7 /90	10.1 /90
T. James	7	89625 min	101.4 /90	60.9 /90	50.7 /90	294.2 /90	10.1 /90	20.3 /90
R. Harbottle	7	81566 min	172.7 /90	81.3 /90	61 /90	548.6 /90	101.6 /90	10.2 /90
C. Kelly	4	73291 min	61.9 /90	61.9 /90	20.6 /90	268 /90	41.2 /90	00 /90
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Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
C. Mola n 8	90	2.3 8/5	0.5 4/0	—
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0.7 5/0	1.2 6/3	L. Billington
S. Forde n 8	77	2.3 7/4	1 4/2	—
R. Smallwood n 8	75.5	1.3 5/3	0.1 1/0	—
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Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Mola n 8	90	2.8 8/6
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	1.1 5/3
S. Forde n 8	77	1.2 4/3
R. Smallwood n 8	75.5	3.4 6/6
F. Cavegn n 8	69.3	0.2 1/0
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Bristol Rovers Attacking

Bristol Rovers — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Cavegn	9	67599 min	30.5 /90	10.2 /90	142.1 /90	81.2 /90	71.1 /90	101.5 /90
E. Harrison	5	55273 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	41.3 /90	41.3 /90	41.3 /90	20.7 /90
J. Quigley	3	61183 min	00 /90	00 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	00 /90
C. Mola	9	86775 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	60.7 /90	20.2 /90	30.3 /90	30.3 /90
S. Forde	9	78706 min	00 /90	00 /90	121.5 /90	30.4 /90	131.7 /90	70.9 /90
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Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Mola n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
S. Forde n 8	77	1.8 7/3	0.4 3/0
R. Smallwood n 8	75.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 26 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
C. Mola n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
S. Forde n 8	77	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Smallwood n 8	75.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Crewe		Bristol Rovers
49%	Possession	51%
1.31	Expected goals (xG)	1.93
9	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
2	Shots off target	4
3	Blocked shots	7
5	Shots inside the box	10
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
13	Fouls	23
4	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	1
287	Passes	295
60%	Pass accuracy	62%

Crewe Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Billington	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	6.6
J. White	90	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	7.3
Kyle Ure	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
T. Booth	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
O. Lunt	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.9
J. March	90	0	1	0	0	2	0	Y	7.3
L. Offord	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7.9
J. Stephenson	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.7
A. Thibaut	81	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
J. Lankester	62	2	0	3	2	1	1	0	8.9
J. Tabiner	50	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	6.2
J. Gibson sub	40	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	7.5
C. Thomas sub	28	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.5
C. McNeill sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5

Bristol Rovers Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
C. Mola	90	0	1	0	0	1	7	Y	6.9
C. Kelly	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	Y	6.2
B. Kamwa	90	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	7.2
T. James	90	0	0	0	0	3	1	Y	6.3
K. Balmer	90	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	6.3
Brad Young	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.2
E. Harrison	74	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
J. Sparkes	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
R. Smallwood	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
R. Russell-Denny	45	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
A. Kilgour	45	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5.9
B. Purrington sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Keenan Gough sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.9
S. Forde sub	45	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.2
P. Sanyaolu sub	45	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6.9
J. Quigley sub	16	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Crewe v Bristol Rovers — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

CreweDDDDD

Last 5: 0W 5D 0L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Bristol RoversWWLLW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 5

Crewe 2 · 1 draw · Bristol Rovers 2 · 3.4 goals/game

2026-03-07 Bristol Rovers 2–1 Crewe
2025-12-19 Crewe 1–1 Bristol Rovers
2023-12-12 Crewe 2–4 Bristol Rovers
2021-05-01 Bristol Rovers 0–1 Crewe
2021-01-19 Crewe 3–2 Bristol Rovers

League standing · 2026/27

Crewe#4 pos22 pts14 pl0 GD

Bristol Rovers#17 pos16 pts14 pl-6 GD

Goals per game

Crewe scored1.21

Bristol Rovers scored1.21

Crewe conceded1.21

Bristol Rovers conceded1.64

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Crewe v Bristol Rovers?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Crewe v Bristol Rovers was Home or Away (best price 1.33 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Bristol Rovers?: In their last 5 meetings, Crewe won 2, Bristol Rovers won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Crewe and Bristol Rovers?: Recent form — Crewe 0W 5D 0L; Bristol Rovers 3W 0D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 7 Nov 2026, 12:25 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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