Port Vale v Grimsby result

Full-time · Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby

League Two · · Vale Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Port Vale · Grimsby · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby — Port Vale won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.33 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4357 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Port Vale beat Grimsby 1–0 at Vale Park in League Two on Saturday 10 October. It is Port Vale’s first win over Grimsby since 9 January 2021, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Port Vale led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Port Vale: Kyle Dempsey (45’, assisted by Jaheim Headley).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kyle Dempsey’s goal on 45 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Port Vale 3.06, Grimsby 0.83, from 15 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Port Vale: George Hall (42’); Grimsby: Finley Cartwright (45+1’).

What it changes

Port Vale move up from 23rd to 22nd (eight league matches played).

Grimsby move down from eighth to ninth (10 league matches played).

Grimsby have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kyle Dempsey (Port Vale) 8.5, Christy Pym (Grimsby) 5.1 and O. Hernández (Port Vale) 5.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Port Vale or Grimsby (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.3% of the time in the last 90 days (3366 of 4357).

Next up

Port Vale next travel to Gillingham on 20 October 2026.

Grimsby next travel to Rochdale on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Port Vale: Gillingham v Port Vale, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for Grimsby: Rochdale v Grimsby, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby · League Two
  • Venue: Vale Park · Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Port Vale 1 · draws 1 · Grimsby 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Port Vale 1W 1D 3L · Grimsby 2W 1D 2L

Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.38 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 7.13
Corners
against 5 / 5.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2.88 / 4.88
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 3.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.75 / 3.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gamePort Vale for / againstLineGrimsby for / against
Goals scored
0.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5our book
1.5 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
7.13 for · 5.63 against n 8
Shots
10.88 for · 11.75 against n 8
19.5standard
15.25 for · 10.25 against n 8
Shots on target
2.88 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.88 for · 3.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.13 for · 12.25 against n 8
21.5standard
12.25 for · 13.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 3.25 against n 8
Port Vale
Port Vale — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Faal n 841.5
4.16/4
1.65/1
—
Maleace Asamoah n 827.4
2.14/1
2.15/0
—
T. Simpson n 828.1
25/0
0.81/1
—
G. Hall n 860.3
1.75/2
0.93/1
G. Turi
B. Waine n 845.4
1.75/1
1.55/1
—
Port Vale — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Faal n 841.5
3.58/3
1.14/0
Lucas Pasquoto n 832.3
2.12/2
0.31/0
M. Watters n 863.8
1.94/3
0.52/1
O. Lynch n 869.4
1.87/4
15/1
B. Garrity n 872.4
1.66/4
0.32/0
Port Vale — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Faal n 841.5
0.31/0
0.31/0
G. Byers n 846
0.52/0
00/0
M. Watters n 863.8
00/0
0.42/0
Maleace Asamoah n 827.4
00/0
0.41/0
O. Lynch n 869.4
0.21/0
00/0
Port Vale — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Headley n 862.1
2.97/4
K. John n 870.1
2.46/4
G. Byers n 846
2.24/2
K. Dempsey n 886.4
2.17/4
R. Walters n 873.9
26/4
Port Vale — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maroši n 890
2.37/4
J. Smith n 893.8
2.25/4
Grimsby
Grimsby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Cartwright n 730.9
2.55/1
3.84/3
—
M. Kacurri n 890
27/5
0.96/1
—
J. Walker n 849.6
25/3
2.35/3
—
J. Sweeney n 887.9
1.86/5
1.78/3
—
G. Turi n 885.1
1.55/5
1.15/2
G. Hall
Grimsby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Cook n 870.4
3.27/4
1.65/3
Iwan Morgan n 843
2.97/3
0.83/0
C. Vernam n 866.4
2.47/5
1.55/4
F. Cartwright n 730.9
2.13/2
0.82/0
M. Shelton n 872.9
1.97/3
1.26/2
Grimsby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Staunton n 873
0.21/0
0.84/1
Iwan Morgan n 843
0.31/0
0.52/0
K. Green n 888.3
0.43/0
0.32/0
M. Shelton n 872.9
0.32/0
0.21/0
C. Doyle n 461.8
0.41/0
00/0
Grimsby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Doyle n 461.8
3.33/3
F. Cartwright n 730.9
3.36/2
G. Turi n 885.1
38/6
J. Walker n 849.6
2.95/3
R. Staunton n 873
26/3
Grimsby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
D. Harrington n 888
3.15/4
C. Pym n 884.4
26/1

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Port ValeGrimsby
49%Possession51%
3.06Expected goals (xG)0.83
15Shots10
7Shots on target2
7Shots off target4
1Blocked shots4
10Shots inside the box5
8Corners4
1Offsides2
7Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Saves5
338Passes364

Port Vale player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maroši9000000006.8
J. Lawrence-Gabriel9000100306.3
C. Humphreys9000000006.6
J. Headley9001112006.7
C. Hall9000000006.3
B. Garrity9000101106.4
J. Moon9000000106.1
K. Dempsey8410322108.2
O. Hernández7900116106.7
M. Watters7100520006.2
G. Hall71001100Y6.4
R. Walters1900200106.6
O. Lynch1900000006
B. Waine1100000006.5
G. Byers600000006.5

Grimsby player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
G. Turi9000002206.6
C. Vernam9000410206.3
J. Sweeney9000000406.3
H. Rodgers9000112005.9
C. McJannet9000000307.1
M. Kacurri9000100306.5
K. Green9000000205.7
A. Cook9000001106.5
C. Pym9000000007.2
Justin Amaluzor7000201306.2
F. Cartwright70000005Y6.4
Iwan Morgan2000001006.3
J. Walker2000200106.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Port Vale v Grimsby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Port ValeDLLWL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
GrimsbyDWWLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Port Vale 1 · 1 draw · Grimsby 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2025-04-21 Port Vale 2–2 Grimsby
  • 2024-12-29 Grimsby 3–0 Port Vale
  • 2021-05-01 Grimsby 1–0 Port Vale
  • 2021-01-09 Port Vale 3–0 Grimsby
  • 2019-08-24 Grimsby 5–2 Port Vale
  • 2018-12-26 Port Vale 0–1 Grimsby
League standing · 2026/27
Port Vale#21 pos11 pts9 pl-4 GD
Grimsby#15 pos13 pts11 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Port Vale scored0.56
Grimsby scored1.18
Port Vale conceded1
Grimsby conceded1.18

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Port Vale v Grimsby?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Port Vale v Grimsby was Home or Away (best price 1.33 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Grimsby?
In their last 6 meetings, Port Vale won 1, Grimsby won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Port Vale and Grimsby?
Recent form — Port Vale 1W 1D 3L; Grimsby 2W 1D 2L.

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