LensToulouse

Lens v Toulouse result

Full-time · Lens 3–2 Toulouse

Ligue 1 · · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lens · Toulouse · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lens 3–2 Toulouse — Lens won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 571 of 889 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Lens: 4.00 to 0.58 in expected goals, from 42 shots to 5, ahead on xG from the 31st minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Lens beat Toulouse 3–2 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Ligue 1 on Friday 17 April.

The goals

Lens came from behind: Toulouse led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Toulouse: C. Cásseres (6’) and Seny Koumbassa (13’, assisted by S. Hidalgo); Lens: Saud Abdulhamid (61’, assisted by A. Saint-Maximin), Adrien Thomasson (67’) and I. Ganiou (90’, assisted by Andrija Bulatović). Y. Gboho (17’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with I. Ganiou’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

J. Pignard showed two yellow cards and one red — against 4.3 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Lens: A. Masuaku (45’); Toulouse: Mário Sauer (88’).

What it changes

Lens stay second after this result (29 league matches played). Lens have scored 61 goals, the second-most of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 31 games, ranked per game). Lens have conceded 33 goals, the third-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Toulouse stay 10th after this result (30 league matches played). Toulouse have scored 45 goals, the ninth-most of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 32 games, ranked per game). Toulouse have conceded 45 goals, the ninth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

With five goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 30, across nine matches. Toulouse have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Adrien Thomasson (Lens) 10.7, I. Ganiou (Lens) 9.9 and Saud Abdulhamid (Lens) 8.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.5% of the time in the last 90 days (346 of 505).

Next up

Lens next host Marseille on 8 November 2026.

Toulouse next travel to Lens on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lens: Lens v Marseille, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Toulouse: Lens v Toulouse, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lens 3–2 Toulouse · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Lens
  • Referee: J. Pignard
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lens 4 · draws 1 · Toulouse 1 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lens 2W 1D 2L · Toulouse 2W 0D 3L

Lens 3–2 Toulouse (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.38 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.88 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.57 / 4
Corners
against 2.57 / 3.71 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.86 / 3.71
Shots on target
against 4.43 / 4.71 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.43 / 2.29
Cards
against 2 / 1.71 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.33 yellows
Referee · J. Pignard
25.08 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 12 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameLens for / againstLineToulouse for / against
Goals scored
2.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5standard
1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
6.57 for · 2.57 against n 7
9.5standard
4 for · 3.71 against n 7
Shots
19.29 for · 9.86 against n 7
19.5standard
12.71 for · 11.57 against n 7
Shots on target
5.86 for · 4.43 against n 7
8.5standard
3.71 for · 4.71 against n 7
Fouls committed
10.43 for · 10.14 against n 7
21.5standard
12.71 for · 9.43 against n 7
Cards shown
1.43 for · 2 against n 7
3.5standard
2.29 for · 1.71 against n 7

Referee: J. Pignard — 4.33 yellow cards a game, 0.5 red cards, 25.08 fouls over 12 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Lens

Lens Goalkeeper

Lens — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
R. Risser30902700 min792.6 /90291 /9020.1 /90
Lens — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
R. Risser n 890
2.65/4

Lens Defensive

Lens — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Sarr30902700 min571.9 /90662.2 /90220.7 /901254.2 /90200.7 /9020.1 /90
I. Ganiou20891770 min291.5 /90201 /9090.5 /90904.6 /90221.1 /9040.2 /90
S. Baidoo20861725 min301.6 /90241.3 /90211.1 /90814.2 /90180.9 /9020.1 /90
J. Gradit990808 min171.9 /90161.8 /9091 /90434.8 /90141.6 /9020.2 /90
N. Čelik775528 min183.1 /9081.4 /9040.7 /90254.3 /90101.7 /9010.2 /90
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Lens — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Udol n 889.9
1.16/3
0.54/0
C. Cásseres
M. Sarr n 890
0.42/1
0.43/0
R. Nicolaisen
R. Risser n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
A. Thomasson n 881.8
0.84/2
1.25/3
C. Cásseres
F. Thauvin n 880.6
0.43/0
1.36/2
—
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Lens — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Udol n 889.9
1.15/2
M. Sarr n 890
1.37/2
A. Thomasson n 881.8
3.68/7
F. Thauvin n 880.6
1.15/3
M. Sangaré n 871.3
1.76/3
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Lens Attacking

Lens — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
F. Thauvin28802227 min90.4 /9050.2 /90522.1 /90251 /90682.7 /90441.8 /90
W. Saïd26691795 min100.5 /9020.1 /90422.1 /90231.2 /90241.2 /90281.4 /90
O. Édouard26641656 min130.7 /9030.2 /90422.3 /90271.5 /90201.1 /90181 /90
R. Fofana2041811 min60.7 /9000 /90273 /90121.3 /9060.7 /90121.3 /90
M. Guilavogui1639627 min10.1 /9000 /90101.4 /9030.4 /90121.7 /9081.1 /90
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Lens — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Udol n 889.9
26/5
0.85/1
M. Sarr n 890
0.83/2
0.11/0
R. Risser n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Thomasson n 881.8
0.63/1
00/0
F. Thauvin n 880.6
2.78/4
1.46/3
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Lens — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Udol n 889.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
R. Risser n 890
00/0
0.11/0
M. Sarr n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Thomasson n 881.8
00/0
0.43/0
F. Thauvin n 880.6
0.64/0
0.42/1
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Toulouse

Toulouse Goalkeeper

Toulouse — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Guillaume Restes29892580 min662.3 /90381.3 /9000 /90
K. Haug370210 min31.3 /9020.9 /9000 /90
Toulouse — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Guillaume Restes n 886.3
2.55/3
K. Haug n 878.3
1.63/0

Toulouse Defensive

Toulouse — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
R. Nicolaisen28822290 min190.7 /90401.6 /90140.6 /901064.2 /90281.1 /9030.1 /90
M. McKenzie27852306 min391.5 /90240.9 /90110.4 /90913.6 /90301.2 /9050.2 /90
C. Cresswell25882191 min230.9 /90241 /90261.1 /901536.3 /90281.2 /9060.2 /90
W. Kamanzi1748812 min192.1 /9091 /9020.2 /90384.2 /9060.7 /9010.1 /90
S. Koumbassa683497 min101.8 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90183.3 /9030.5 /9010.2 /90
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Toulouse — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Y. Gboho n 888.3
0.32/0
2.27/4
—
Guillaume Restes n 886.3
00/0
0.11/0
—
C. Cásseres n 883.1
1.98/3
1.26/3
A. Thomasson
R. Nicolaisen n 886.5
0.53/1
0.75/0
M. Sarr
D. Sidibé n 883.6
1.77/5
0.42/1
—
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Toulouse — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Y. Gboho n 888.3
1.16/3
C. Cásseres n 883.1
37/6
R. Nicolaisen n 886.5
0.42/1
D. Sidibé n 883.6
2.38/5
M. McKenzie n 884.8
0.95/2
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Toulouse Attacking

Toulouse — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Gboho30872600 min90.3 /9020.1 /90321.1 /90160.6 /90592 /90742.6 /90
Emersonn25621548 min50.3 /9020.1 /90402.3 /90191.1 /90150.9 /90100.6 /90
F. Magri17741264 min50.4 /9010.1 /90251.8 /90120.9 /90141 /90100.7 /90
S. Hidalgo1758994 min30.3 /9030.3 /90211.9 /9080.7 /9090.8 /9080.7 /90
J. Russell-Rowe636217 min00 /9000 /9041.7 /9010.4 /9052.1 /9000 /90
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Toulouse — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Gboho n 888.3
1.36/3
0.53/1
Guillaume Restes n 886.3
00/0
00/0
C. Cásseres n 883.1
0.53/1
0.32/0
R. Nicolaisen n 886.5
0.54/0
0.32/0
D. Sidibé n 883.6
0.42/1
0.32/0
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Toulouse — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Y. Gboho n 888.3
0.31/1
00/0
Guillaume Restes n 886.3
00/0
00/0
C. Cásseres n 883.1
00/0
0.11/0
R. Nicolaisen n 886.5
0.11/0
00/0
D. Sidibé n 883.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LensToulouse
78%Possession22%
3.76Expected goals (xG)0.41
41Shots5
13Shots on target2
18Shots off target1
10Blocked shots2
27Shots inside the box3
14Corners1
2Offsides0
9Fouls15
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
0Saves10
596Passes176
89%Pass accuracy63%

Lens Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Risser9000000005.5
I. Ganiou9010312308.5
M. Sarr9000310308.2
Saud Abdulhamid9010118108.9
M. Sangaré9000206407.6
M. Udol9000533208.5
A. Masuaku85001122Y6.6
A. Thomasson8510544307.3
F. Sotoca7200100006.2
W. Saïd5500521206.3
R. Fofana5500100106.3
A. Saint-Maximin sub3501204007.7
O. Édouard sub3500200006.5
F. Thauvin sub1800002007.2
S. Baidoo sub1000000006.6
A. Bulatović sub1001001006.9

Toulouse Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Guillaume Restes9000000007.9
S. Koumbassa9010110207.3
R. Nicolaisen9000000006.7
C. Cásseres9010110507.9
W. Kamanzi9000000206.9
A. Vossah7600001006.5
C. Cresswell7200000006.7
A. Dønnum6400000206.7
Emersonn6400000005.9
S. Hidalgo4501001106.7
Y. Gboho17000001R3
P. Diop sub4500100106.9
D. Methalie sub2600000105.9
J. Russell-Rowe sub2600000006.3
D. Sidibé sub1800000006.3
M. Sauer sub14000000Y6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lens v Toulouse — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LensDWLWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
ToulouseLWWLL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lens 4 · 1 draw · Toulouse 1 · 2 goals/game
  • 2026-01-02 Toulouse 0–3 Lens
  • 2025-05-10 Toulouse 1–1 Lens
  • 2025-01-05 Lens 0–1 Toulouse
  • 2024-01-28 Toulouse 0–2 Lens
  • 2023-09-24 Lens 2–1 Toulouse
  • 2023-05-02 Toulouse 0–1 Lens
League standing · 2025/26
Lens#2 pos70 pts34 pl+31 GD
Toulouse#10 pos44 pts33 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Lens scored1.94
Toulouse scored1.42
Lens conceded1.03
Toulouse conceded1.39

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lens 4.00 xG from 42 shots, Toulouse 0.58 from 5. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Matthieu Udol 59' · 0.53 xGAdrien Thomasson 82' · 0.46 xGWesley Said 49' · 0.28 xGWesley Said 20' · 0.27 xGWesley Said 8' · 0.14 xGOdsonne Edouard 58' · 0.14 xGAdrien Thomasson 56' · 0.12 xGOdsonne Edouard 88' · 0.11 xGRayan Fofana 32' · 0.10 xGYann Gboho 7' · 0.10 xGRayan Fofana 31' · 0.08 xGAdrien Thomasson 41' · 0.08 xGMatthieu Udol 58' · 0.07 xGPierre Ganiou 58' · 0.07 xGOdsonne Edouard 85' · 0.06 xGAdrien Thomasson 69' · 0.06 xGPierre Ganiou 25' · 0.06 xGMamadou Sangaré 55' · 0.05 xGAdrien Thomasson 59' · 0.05 xGWesley Said 35' · 0.04 xGSantiago Hidalgo 7' · 0.04 xGAllan Saint-Maximin 85' · 0.04 xGAllan Saint-Maximin 83' · 0.04 xGMatthieu Udol 21' · 0.04 xGAdrien Thomasson 73' · 0.04 xGOdsonne Edouard 88' · 0.04 xGMamadou Sangaré 58' · 0.03 xGFlorian Thauvin 90' · 0.03 xGMatthieu Udol 48' · 0.03 xGMalang Sarr 66' · 0.03 xGFlorian Thauvin 81' · 0.03 xGAllan Saint-Maximin 77' · 0.02 xGMatthieu Udol 21' · 0.02 xGMalang Sarr 25' · 0.02 xGMamadou Sangaré 52' · 0.02 xGWesley Said 52' · 0.02 xGPierre Ganiou 79' · 0.01 xGPierre Ganiou 38' · 0.01 xGArthur Masuaku 33' · 0.01 xGPape Diop 60' · 0.01 xGMalang Sarr 48' · 0.01 xGFlorian Sotoca 43' · 0.01 xGAdrien Thomasson 66' · 0.50 xG · goalSeny Koumbassa 12' · 0.42 xG · goalSaud Abdulhamid 60' · 0.12 xG · goalPierre Ganiou 90' · 0.11 xG · goalCristian Cásseres Jr. 5' · 0.01 xG · goal
Lens (attacking right)Toulouse (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Lens4234.00
Toulouse520.58

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Lens 0.89, Toulouse 0.57. At full time, Lens led on xG, 4.00 to 0.58. The widest gap was 3.42 xG to Lens, in the 90th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.02.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Toulouse 5 minGoal - Toulouse 12 minGoal - Lens 60 minGoal - Lens 66 minGoal - Lens 90 min
Lens 4.00 xGToulouse 0.58 xGdots = goals · 47 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lens v Toulouse?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lens v Toulouse was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Toulouse?
In their last 6 meetings, Lens won 4, Toulouse won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lens and Toulouse?
Recent form — Lens 2W 1D 2L; Toulouse 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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