Lens v Marseille prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Updated 5 Nov 2026, 22:48 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lens · Marseille · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lens v Marseille, Ligue 1 on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Predicted on 31 October 2026, before the fixture moved

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 543 of 844 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Lens host Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

11 of Lens’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Lens’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Lens have five wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.88 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 2.13. Lens have scored 16 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Lens have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Marseille have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.25. Marseille have scored 20 goals, the second-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Marseille have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Marseille have won their last three matches in all competitions. Lens (ninth) and Marseille (sixth) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Marseille the stronger side, 5 rating points above Lens (Marseille 1733, Lens 1728, after at least 225 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, finished Marseille 3–1 Lens.

Team news

Predicted Lens XI (3-4-2-1): R. Risser, S. Baidoo, R. Aguilar, K. Antonio, M. Cuisance, A. Haidara, M. Udol, F. Thauvin, S. Abdulhamid, T. Hazard, F. Ivanović — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Florian Thauvin (6.5 per match over 14 appearances, six goals and eight assists) and Ruben Aguilar (3.9 per match over 13 appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Lens’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lens (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Florian Thauvin averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 1144 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Ruben Aguilar averages 3.1 tackles per 90 over 897 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Marseille XI (4-2-3-1): J. de Lange, N. Aguerd, C. Egan-Riley, U. Garcia, K. Bezahaf, H. Abdelli, P. Højbjerg, I. Paixão, T. Nnadi, A. Harit, A. Gouiri — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amine Harit (4.3 per match over 11 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Amine Gouiri (4.2 per match over 13 appearances, seven goals and three assists) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amine Harit averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 837 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Amine Gouiri averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1386 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Ligue 1 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Lens 3 · draws 0 · Marseille 3 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Lens 2W 0D 3L · Marseille 4W 0D 1L

Lens v Marseille (Ligue 1): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.88

Goals

against 2.5 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

5.38 / 4.25

Corners

against 4 / 3.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 3.75

Shots on target

against 5.75 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.88 / 2

Cards

against 1.13 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Lens for / against	Line	Marseille for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.13 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.88 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.75 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.5 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Lens

Lens Goalkeeper

Lens — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Risser	14	901260 min	473.4 /90	110.8 /90	00 /90

Lens — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Risser n 8	90	3.2 7/5

Lens Defensive

Lens — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Aguilar	13	69897 min	313.1 /90	131.3 /90	00 /90	474.7 /90	161.6 /90	10.1 /90
K. Antonio	11	74816 min	192.1 /90	161.8 /90	40.4 /90	434.7 /90	91 /90	00 /90
I. Ganiou	8	88703 min	172.2 /90	70.9 /90	50.6 /90	364.6 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
S. Baidoo	7	63440 min	81.6 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90	142.9 /90	20.4 /90	30.6 /90
J. Todibo	6	51308 min	72 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90	123.5 /90	51.5 /90	00 /90
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Lens — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Risser n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
F. Thauvin n 8	77.4	1.3 7/2	1.7 5/3	—
M. Udol n 8	89.3	0.6 5/0	1 6/2	—
R. Aguilar n 8	79.5	1.3 6/2	0.4 3/0	—
M. Cuisance n 8	80.9	1.8 6/4	0.6 4/0	—
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Lens — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Thauvin n 8	77.4	0.9 4/1
M. Udol n 8	89.3	2.3 6/5
R. Aguilar n 8	79.5	3 7/6
M. Cuisance n 8	80.9	1.7 6/4
A. Haidara n 8	62.8	3 6/4
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Lens Attacking

Lens — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Thauvin	14	821144 min	60.5 /90	80.6 /90	332.6 /90	201.6 /90	483.8 /90	171.3 /90
F. Ivanović	12	48573 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	111.7 /90	50.8 /90	40.6 /90	193 /90
O. Édouard	9	38344 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	112.9 /90	61.6 /90	51.3 /90	30.8 /90
A. Sima	7	76534 min	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	81.3 /90	40.7 /90	81.3 /90	40.7 /90
J. Kadile	7	44311 min	00 /90	00 /90	72 /90	30.9 /90	30.9 /90	20.6 /90
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Lens — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Risser n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Thauvin n 8	77.4	1.7 7/4	1 5/2
M. Udol n 8	89.3	1.3 5/4	0.5 3/1
R. Aguilar n 8	79.5	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0
M. Cuisance n 8	80.9	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
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Lens — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lens before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Risser n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Thauvin n 8	77.4	0.1 1/0	1 5/2
M. Udol n 8	89.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
R. Aguilar n 8	79.5	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
M. Cuisance n 8	80.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. de Lange	13	901170 min	483.7 /90	60.5 /90	00 /90

Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. de Lange n 8	90	3.8 7/6

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Aguerd	13	67866 min	80.8 /90	151.6 /90	60.6 /90	505.2 /90	80.8 /90	10.1 /90
C. Egan-Riley	12	831000 min	131.2 /90	191.7 /90	50.5 /90	423.8 /90	50.5 /90	10.1 /90
T. Weah	11	89977 min	262.4 /90	121.1 /90	60.6 /90	484.4 /90	141.3 /90	10.1 /90
Emerson	11	75826 min	91 /90	121.3 /90	30.3 /90	293.2 /90	60.7 /90	00 /90
U. Garcia	5	66331 min	154.1 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90	267.1 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	1.3 5/3	0.6 4/0	—
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	1 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	0.9 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1	0.5 4/0	—
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	2.3 5/4
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	0.9 3/2
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	1 5/2
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.8 6/0
Igor Paixão n 8	74	2 5/4
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Gouiri	13	76991 min	70.6 /90	30.3 /90	222 /90	121.1 /90	141.3 /90	80.7 /90
K. Abdallah	9	45408 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	153.3 /90	51.1 /90	71.5 /90	81.8 /90
N. Maupay	6	50302 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	30.9 /90
T. Mmadi	2	1937 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
H. Abdelli	13	791021 min	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	80.7 /90	30.3 /90	111 /90	90.8 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	1 4/2	0.4 3/0
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	1.6 4/3	0.9 3/2
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	1 5/2	0.1 1/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	0.4 3/0	0.4 3/0
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lens v Marseille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LensWLWLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 3 conceded per game

MarseilleWLWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Lens 3 · 0 draws · Marseille 3 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-01-24 Marseille 3–1 Lens
2025-10-25 Lens 2–1 Marseille
2025-03-08 Marseille 0–1 Lens
2024-11-23 Lens 1–3 Marseille
2024-04-28 Marseille 2–1 Lens
2023-11-12 Lens 1–0 Marseille

League standing · 2026/27

Lens#9 pos13 pts9 pl+3 GD

Marseille#6 pos15 pts9 pl+7 GD

Goals per game

Lens scored1.78

Marseille scored2.22

Lens conceded1.44

Marseille conceded1.44

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Lens v Marseille?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Lens v Marseille is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Marseille?: In their last 6 meetings, Lens won 3, Marseille won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lens and Marseille?: Recent form — Lens 2W 0D 3L; Marseille 4W 0D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Nov 2026, 22:48 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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