Marseille v Paris FC result

Full-time · Marseille 5–2 Paris FC

Ligue 1 · Sat, 23 Aug 2025 16:00 BST · Orange Vélodrome

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Marseille 5–2 Paris FC — Marseille won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.6% of 171 landed (95% range 45.2–60%); it had given them 77.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Marseille: 3.34 to 1.06 in expected goals, from 11 shots to 8, ahead on xG from the 12th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Marseille beat Paris FC 5–2 at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1 on Saturday 23 August.

The goals

Marseille led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Marseille: Mason Greenwood (18’ pen), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (24’, assisted by Mason Greenwood; 73’, assisted by Bilal Nadir), Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (81’, assisted by Bilal Nadir) and Robinio Vaz (90’, assisted by Mason Greenwood); Paris FC: Ilan Kebbal (28’) and Moses Simon (58’, assisted by Ilan Kebbal).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s seven key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s goal on 73 minutes.

Discipline

M. Bollengier showed one yellow card — against 4.2 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Marseille: Robinio Vaz (88’).

What it changes

Marseille move up from 18th to second (two league matches played).

Paris FC move down from 14th to 18th (two league matches played).

With seven goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 2, across nine matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Mason Greenwood (Marseille) 11.2, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Marseille) 9.2 and Ilan Kebbal (Paris FC) 7.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Marseille next travel to Sturm Graz on 22 October 2026.

Paris FC next travel to Lens on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Marseille: Sturm Graz v Marseille, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for Paris FC: Lens v Paris FC, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Marseille 5–2 Paris FC · Ligue 1
Venue: Orange Vélodrome · Marseille
Referee: M. Bollengier
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Marseille 3W 1D 1L · Paris FC 2W 2D 1L

Marseille 5–2 Paris FC (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.5 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.5 / 0.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.38 / 4

Corners

against 2.5 / 3.71 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.75 / 5.43

Shots on target

against 3.88 / 2.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 1.43

Cards

against 2.63 / 2.86 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

4.22 yellows

Referee · M. Bollengier

2.11 home / 2.11 away

over 9 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Marseille for / against	Line	Paris FC for / against
Goals scored	2.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.63 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.38 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 3.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	15.25 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.43 for · 11 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.75 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.43 for · 2.43 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.63 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.86 for · 12.57 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.43 for · 2.86 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: M. Bollengier — 4.22 yellow cards a game, 0.33 red cards, 26.78 fouls over 9 matches (2.11 to the home side, 2.11 to the away side).

Home 2.11Away 2.11

Marseille

Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
I. Bennacer n 8	49.8	2.5 5/3	2 5/4	—
V. Rongier n 8	78.4	2 7/5	0.7 4/1	—
J. Rowe n 8	42.4	1.9 3/2	2.9 6/3	—
D. Cornelius n 8	70.6	1.6 6/3	0.5 3/0	—
A. Dedić n 8	57.8	1.6 5/2	0.8 2/1	—

Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 8	88.3	2.8 8/6	1.7 6/4
J. Rowe n 8	42.4	2.7 6/2	0.8 3/0
A. Gouiri n 8	73.6	2.1 8/4	1.8 8/3
A. Harit n 8	28.3	2 3/2	1.2 2/1
B. Nadir n 8	29.6	1.9 3/2	0.8 1/1

Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 8	88.3	0.9 5/2	0.3 2/0
A. Gouiri n 8	73.6	0.9 3/2	0 0/0
A. Rabiot n 8	90.8	0.4 2/1	0.4 2/1
A. Harit n 8	28.3	0.4 1/0	0.4 1/0
J. Rowe n 8	42.4	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0

Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Luiz Felipe n 8	44.9	3.3 6/4
L. Balerdi n 8	81.4	2.9 7/5
V. Rongier n 8	78.4	2.7 6/5
G. Kondogbia n 8	82.9	2.6 7/4
I. Bennacer n 8	49.8	2.5 4/2

Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Rulli n 8	90	2.3 4/3

Paris FC

Paris FC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Doucet n 8	32.6	3.1 7/1	1 3/0	—
M. Kanté n 5	14.4	2.5 2/0	0 0/0	—
N. Dicko n 8	46.4	2.4 5/5	2.4 4/4	—
P. Hamel n 8	58.3	2.3 6/5	0.6 3/0	—
M. Cafaro n 8	49.4	2.1 3/3	1.6 5/1	—

Paris FC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
O. Sissoko n 5	14	3.9 3/0	2.6 2/0
J. Krasso n 8	71.1	3 7/6	2.2 6/5
M. Cafaro n 8	49.4	2.7 7/3	1.8 7/1
P. Hamel n 8	58.3	1.7 5/3	0.6 2/1
N. Dicko n 8	46.4	1.7 6/1	1 3/1

Paris FC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Cafaro n 8	49.4	0.7 3/0	0.7 3/0
O. Sissoko n 5	14	1.3 1/0	0 0/0
J. Krasso n 8	71.1	1.1 4/3	0 0/0
I. Kebbal n 8	74.5	0.2 1/0	0.6 4/0
M. Lopez n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.5 3/1

Paris FC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Camara n 8	87.8	3.7 7/7
M. Tourraine n 8	51.4	3.5 5/4
M. Mbow n 8	89.1	2.3 8/5
T. De Smet n 8	84.4	2.3 7/6
T. Ollila n 8	33.6	2 2/2

Paris FC — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Riou n 8	73.5	2.3 3/3
O. Nkambadio n 8	84.4	2.1 5/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Marseille		Paris FC
61%	Possession	39%
2.83	Expected goals (xG)	1.09
11	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
4	Shots off target	4
0	Blocked shots	0
9	Shots inside the box	6
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
9	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	2
590	Passes	380
91%	Pass accuracy	88%

Marseille player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
G. Rulli	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. Murillo	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	6.3
C. Egan-Riley	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
L. Balerdi	90	0	0	1	1	0	0	7.2
A. Gomes	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	6.9
P. Højbjerg	90	1	0	2	1	0	0	8.2
M. Greenwood	90	1	2	2	1	3	1	9
U. Garcia	89	0	0	1	0	0	1	6.2
A. Gouiri	89	0	0	1	1	1	2	6.7
P. Aubameyang	74	2	0	3	2	0	0	9.9
T. Weah	63	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.5
B. Nadir sub	27	0	2	0	0	2	2	7.3
R. Vaz sub	16	1	0	1	1	0	1	8.3
D. Cornelius sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
D. Bakola sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Paris FC player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
O. Nkambadio	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.5
S. Chergui	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	5.3
M. Mbow	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
Otávio	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.2
M. Lopez	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
I. Kebbal	90	1	1	2	1	1	0	8.5
N. Sangui	83	0	0	0	0	1	1	6
V. Marchetti	83	0	0	2	1	0	1	6.5
A. Camara	69	0	0	0	0	1	3	7
W. Geubbels	64	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.2
M. Simon	64	1	0	3	2	0	0	7.7
J. Krasso sub	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Gory sub	26	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.9
L. Doucet sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.7
P. Hamel sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. López sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Marseille v Paris FC — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MarseilleWDWWL

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Paris FCWDDWL

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Marseille#5 pos59 pts34 pl+18 GD

Paris FC#11 pos44 pts34 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

Marseille scored1.85

Paris FC scored1.38

Marseille conceded1.32

Paris FC conceded1.47

Shot map and expected goals

Marseille 3.34 xG from 11 shots, Paris FC 1.06 from 8. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Marseille (attacking right)Paris FC (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Marseille	11	5	3.34
Paris FC	8	2	1.06

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Marseille v Paris FC?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Paris FC was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Marseille and Paris FC?: Recent form — Marseille 3W 1D 1L; Paris FC 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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