Paris FC v Lille result
The model’s pre-match pick
Paris FC 0–1 Lille — Lille won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.
What xG said
xG said Lille: 1.76 to 1.37 in expected goals, 0.76 of it from a penalty and 0.76 of Paris FC’s from a penalty, from 10 shots to 7, ahead on xG from the 13th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).
The result
Lille won 1–0 at Stade Jean Bouin in Ligue 1 on Sunday 26 April. Lille are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.
The goals
Lille led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Lille: Matias Fernandez-Pardo (26’ pen). Pierre Lees-Melou (85’) was sent off.
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Matias Fernandez-Pardo’s goal on 26 minutes.
Discipline
M. Vernice showed nine yellow cards and one red — against 4.1 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition).
What it changes
Paris FC move down from 10th to 12th (31 league matches played).
Lille stay third after this result (31 league matches played).
Lille have kept a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Matias Fernandez-Pardo (Lille) 6.4, Benjamin André (Lille) 4.1 and Félix Correia (Lille) 3.7 led the match.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Paris FC or Lille (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.9% of the time in the last 90 days (3985 of 5118).
Next up
Paris FC next host Angers on 21 November 2026.
Lille next travel to Rennes on 8 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Paris FC: Paris FC v Angers, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Lille: Rennes v Lille, Sunday 8 November — the preview.
The Numbers
- Result: Paris FC 0–1 Lille · Ligue 1
- Venue: Stade Jean Bouin · Paris
- Referee: M. Vernice
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 1): Paris FC 0 · draws 0 · Lille 1 · 6 goals/game
- Recent form: Paris FC 3W 2D 0L · Lille 3W 1D 1L
Paris FC 0–1 Lille (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Paris FC for / against | Line | Lille for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.5 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.75 for · 8.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.63 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 11.88 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.38 for · 8.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.5 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.13 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 8.5 for · 9.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 9.75 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.25 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.25 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: M. Vernice — 4.08 yellow cards a game, 0.33 red cards, 26.5 fouls over 12 matches.
The referee's home and away split · Pro
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Paris FC
Paris FC Goalkeeper
| Player | Apps | Avg mins | Saves | Goals conceded | Penalties saved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Trapp | 18 | 901620 min | 512.8 /90 | 251.4 /90 | 10.1 /90 |
| O. Nkambadio | 15 | 901350 min | 412.7 /90 | 181.2 /90 | 10.1 /90 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| K. Trapp n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
| O. Nkambadio n 8 | 90 | 3 |
Paris FC Defensive
| Player | Apps | Avg mins | Tackles | Interceptions | Blocks | Duels won | Fouls committed | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Mbow | 31 | 882716 min | 531.8 /90 | 401.3 /90 | 280.9 /90 | 1324.4 /90 | 210.7 /90 | 30.1 /90 |
| Otávio | 22 | 871904 min | 422 /90 | 271.3 /90 | 180.9 /90 | 1055 /90 | 241.1 /90 | 70.3 /90 |
| N. Sangui | 20 | 851694 min | 231.2 /90 | 140.7 /90 | 50.3 /90 | 583.1 /90 | 60.3 /90 | 00 /90 |
| T. De Smet | 18 | 701268 min | 302.1 /90 | 90.6 /90 | 30.2 /90 | 634.5 /90 | 120.9 /90 | 80.6 /90 |
| H. Traoré | 14 | 70985 min | 262.4 /90 | 161.5 /90 | 10.1 /90 | 433.9 /90 | 191.7 /90 | 30.3 /90 |
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| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Mbow n 8 | 80.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | — |
| I. Kebbal n 8 | 67.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | — |
| A. Camara n 8 | 78.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | — |
| M. Simon n 8 | 70.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | Félix Correia |
| M. Lopez n 8 | 70.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | A. Bouaddi |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Mbow n 8 | 80.8 | 1.7 |
| I. Kebbal n 8 | 67.3 | 1.3 |
| A. Camara n 8 | 78.4 | 3 |
| M. Simon n 8 | 70.9 | 0.6 |
| M. Lopez n 8 | 70.3 | 0.8 |
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Paris FC Attacking
| Player | Apps | Avg mins | Goals | Assists | Shots | Shots on target | Key passes | Dribbles completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Krasso | 21 | 501059 min | 10.1 /90 | 20.2 /90 | 211.8 /90 | 90.8 /90 | 221.9 /90 | 151.3 /90 |
| J. Ikoné | 21 | 501057 min | 70.6 /90 | 00 /90 | 181.5 /90 | 110.9 /90 | 80.7 /90 | 161.4 /90 |
| A. Gory | 21 | 42873 min | 30.3 /90 | 10.1 /90 | 131.3 /90 | 40.4 /90 | 40.4 /90 | 30.3 /90 |
| W. Geubbels | 20 | 49971 min | 30.3 /90 | 10.1 /90 | 222 /90 | 60.6 /90 | 70.6 /90 | 30.3 /90 |
| L. Koleosho | 14 | 34472 min | 20.4 /90 | 00 /90 | 101.9 /90 | 71.3 /90 | 81.5 /90 | 61.1 /90 |
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| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Mbow n 8 | 80.8 | 0.1 | 0 |
| I. Kebbal n 8 | 67.3 | 1.3 | 1 |
| A. Camara n 8 | 78.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| M. Simon n 8 | 70.9 | 1 | 0.6 |
| M. Lopez n 8 | 70.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Mbow n 8 | 80.8 | 0 | 0 |
| I. Kebbal n 8 | 67.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| A. Camara n 8 | 78.4 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Simon n 8 | 70.9 | 0 | 0.2 |
| M. Lopez n 8 | 70.3 | 0 | 0 |
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Lille
Lille Goalkeeper
| Player | Apps | Avg mins | Saves | Goals conceded | Penalties saved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Özer | 39 | 893467 min | 852.2 /90 | 431.1 /90 | 40.1 /90 |
| A. Bodart | 5 | 81406 min | 112.4 /90 | 61.3 /90 | 00 /90 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| B. Özer n 8 | 84.3 | 1.5 |
| A. Bodart n 5 | 81.2 | 2.4 |
Lille Defensive
| Player | Apps | Avg mins | Tackles | Interceptions | Blocks | Duels won | Fouls committed | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mandi | 33 | 852790 min | 421.4 /90 | 521.7 /90 | 180.6 /90 | 1244 /90 | 220.7 /90 | 80.3 /90 |
| N. Ngoy | 32 | 852715 min | 411.4 /90 | 411.4 /90 | 160.5 /90 | 913 /90 | 220.7 /90 | 90.3 /90 |
| R. Perraud | 32 | 802571 min | 551.9 /90 | 281 /90 | 50.2 /90 | 1354.7 /90 | 291 /90 | 50.2 /90 |
| T. Meunier | 31 | 742281 min | 371.5 /90 | 230.9 /90 | 60.2 /90 | 793.1 /90 | 351.4 /90 | 20.1 /90 |
| Tiago Santos | 20 | 611222 min | 171.3 /90 | 100.7 /90 | 00 /90 | 685 /90 | 151.1 /90 | 00 /90 |
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| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Félix Correia n 8 | 58.6 | 0.8 | 1.7 | M. Simon |
| B. Özer n 8 | 84.3 | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| H. Haraldsson n 8 | 78.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | — |
| A. Bouaddi n 8 | 77.9 | 1.2 | 1 | M. Lopez |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo n 8 | 73.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | — |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Félix Correia n 8 | 58.6 | 1.7 |
| H. Haraldsson n 8 | 78.3 | 0.3 |
| A. Bouaddi n 8 | 77.9 | 1.9 |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo n 8 | 73.5 | 0.9 |
| O. Giroud n 8 | 46.3 | 1.5 |
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Lille Attacking
| Player | Apps | Avg mins | Goals | Assists | Shots | Shots on target | Key passes | Dribbles completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | 35 | 752623 min | 70.2 /90 | 60.2 /90 | 451.5 /90 | 341.2 /90 | 421.4 /90 | 361.2 /90 |
| O. Giroud | 35 | 632198 min | 70.3 /90 | 10 /90 | 461.9 /90 | 210.9 /90 | 251 /90 | 20.1 /90 |
| H. Igamane | 14 | 50699 min | 81 /90 | 10.1 /90 | 303.9 /90 | 172.2 /90 | 70.9 /90 | 182.3 /90 |
| M. Broholm | 10 | 43430 min | 10.2 /90 | 00 /90 | 51 /90 | 30.6 /90 | 102.1 /90 | 61.3 /90 |
| G. Perrin | 8 | 50396 min | 10.2 /90 | 00 /90 | 51.1 /90 | 30.7 /90 | 102.3 /90 | 71.6 /90 |
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| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Félix Correia n 8 | 58.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| B. Özer n 8 | 84.3 | 0 | 0 |
| H. Haraldsson n 8 | 78.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| A. Bouaddi n 8 | 77.9 | 0.3 | 0 |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo n 8 | 73.5 | 2 | 1.5 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Félix Correia n 8 | 58.6 | 0.2 | 0 |
| B. Özer n 8 | 84.3 | 0 | 0 |
| H. Haraldsson n 8 | 78.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| A. Bouaddi n 8 | 77.9 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo n 8 | 73.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
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The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match Statistics & Details
| Paris FC | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | 53% |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.71 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Shots off target | 3 |
| 2 | Blocked shots | 3 |
| 7 | Shots inside the box | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 419 | Passes | 491 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 85% |
Paris FC Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Trapp | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Diego Coppola | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 |
| M. Mbow | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Y | 6.6 |
| N. Sangui | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 |
| J. Ikoné | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.9 |
| A. Camara | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 |
| P. Lees-Melou | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | RY | 6.7 |
| M. Simon | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| C. Immobile | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| M. Lopez | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 |
| M. Munetsi | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.6 |
| R. Matondo sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7.5 |
| A. Gory sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6.3 |
| I. Kebbal sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | Y | 6.3 |
| L. Koleosho sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| H. Traoré sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
Lille Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Özer | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| T. Meunier | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| N. Ngoy | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 7.2 |
| A. Mandi | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 |
| R. Perraud | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.2 |
| B. André | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | Y | 7.3 |
| A. Bouaddi | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Y | 6.6 |
| N. Mukau | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7.2 |
| Félix Correia | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| H. Haraldsson | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.7 |
| G. Perrin sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| O. Giroud sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| E. Mbappé sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Paris FC v Lille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-11-23 Lille 4–2 Paris FC
Shot Map and Expected Goals
Paris FC 1.37 xG from 7 shots, Lille 1.76 from 10. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.
| Team | Shots | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 7 | 0 | 1.37 |
| Lille | 10 | 1 | 1.76 |
Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.
Expected Goals Race
At half-time, Lille led on xG, 0.98 to 0.11, 0.76 of it from a penalty, level on open-play xG. At full time, Lille led on xG, 1.76 to 1.37, 0.76 of it from a penalty and 0.76 of Paris FC’s from a penalty. The widest gap was 1.26 xG to Lille, in the 66th minute.
The Full Post-Match Picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the model’s pick for Paris FC v Lille?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Paris FC v Lille was Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Lille?
- In their last 1 meetings, Paris FC won 0, Lille won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 6 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Paris FC and Lille?
- Recent form — Paris FC 3W 2D 0L; Lille 3W 1D 1L.
Today’s Boards
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How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.