This Matchweek

Stade Brestois 29Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse result

Full-time · Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse

Ligue 1 · · Stade Francis-Le Blé

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Stade Brestois 29 · Toulouse · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse — this Ligue 1 match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 2.00 at Unibet
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.6% of 491 landed (95% range 64.4–72.6%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 596 of 928 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Stade Brestois 29: 4.04 to 1.31 in expected goals, from 26 shots to 6, ahead on xG from the 50th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse drew 2–2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1 on Saturday 29 August. Stade Brestois 29 are winless in their last 11 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Toulouse: Jacen Russell-Rowe (9’, assisted by Y. Gboho) and Christ Tape (62’, assisted by C. Cásseres); Stade Brestois 29: Kamory Doumbia (18’, assisted by Mamady Diambou) and Ludovic Ajorque (90’, assisted by Hugo Magnetti).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ludovic Ajorque’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

Jerome Brisard showed five yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Stade Brestois 29: B. Locko (31’) and Pathé Mboup (44’); Toulouse: C. Cásseres (45+3’), Niklas Schmidt (89’) and Rasmus Nicolaisen (90+4’).

What it changes

Stade Brestois 29 move down from third to eighth (shared) (two league matches played).

Toulouse stay 16th after this result (two league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, C. Cásseres (Toulouse) 10.4, Mamady Diambou (Stade Brestois 29) 8.2 and Christ Tape (Toulouse) 8.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Stade Brestois 29 next travel to Strasbourg on 21 November 2026.

Toulouse next travel to Lens on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Stade Brestois 29: Strasbourg v Stade Brestois 29, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Toulouse: Lens v Toulouse, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé · Brest
  • Referee: Jerome Brisard
  • Model coverage: 210 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Stade Brestois 29 3 · draws 1 · Toulouse 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Stade Brestois 29 0W 2D 3L · Toulouse 2W 1D 2L

Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 210 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 12 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.25
Goals
against 2.25 / 2.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 3.38
Corners
against 6.5 / 6.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.75 / 3
Shots on target
against 5.5 / 6.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.38 / 2.75
Cards
against 1.75 / 1 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
210
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameStade Brestois 29 for / againstLineToulouse for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 2.25 against n 8
2.5our book
1.25 for · 2.5 against n 8
Corners won
3.63 for · 6.5 against n 8
9.5standard
3.38 for · 6.25 against n 8
Shots
12.25 for · 15.38 against n 8
19.5standard
11.38 for · 16.88 against n 8
Shots on target
3.75 for · 5.5 against n 8
8.5standard
3 for · 6.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
11 for · 10.38 against n 8
21.5standard
15 for · 9.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.75 for · 1 against n 8

Referee: Jerome Brisard.

Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 Goalkeeper

Stade Brestois 29 — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Selvik19090 min33 /9022 /9000 /90

Stade Brestois 29 Defensive

Stade Brestois 29 — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Locko19090 min22 /9011 /9000 /9055 /9000 /9000 /90
K. Lala19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /9033 /9000 /9000 /90
L. Tousart19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /9066 /9000 /9000 /90
R. Le Guen19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /9066 /9000 /9000 /90
J. Chotard19090 min22 /9033 /9000 /9044 /9022 /9000 /90
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Stade Brestois 29 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stade Brestois 29 before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Ajorque n 890
2.17/6
1.15/3
—
L. Tousart n 862.3
1.15/1
0.52/1
—
R. Le Guen n 590
0.83/1
00/0
R. Nicolaisen
K. Lala n 881.6
0.85/1
0.63/1
R. Nicolaisen
B. Locko n 869.1
0.84/1
26/2
M. McKenzie
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Stade Brestois 29 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stade Brestois 29 before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Locko n 869.1
4.18/6
L. Tousart n 862.3
1.86/2
J. Chotard n 879
1.67/4
R. Le Guen n 590
1.44/2
L. Ajorque n 890
1.34/3
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Stade Brestois 29 Attacking

Stade Brestois 29 — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Ajorque19090 min00 /9000 /9077 /9022 /9011 /9022 /90
Mama Baldé11919 min00 /9000 /9014.7 /9000 /9029.5 /9014.7 /90
J. Chotard19090 min00 /9000 /9022 /9000 /9044 /9000 /90
K. Doumbia18989 min11 /9011 /9011 /9011 /9022 /9033 /90
P. Mboup17171 min00 /9000 /9033.8 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9022.5 /90
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Stade Brestois 29 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stade Brestois 29 before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Ajorque n 890
2.15/4
0.52/2
R. Le Guen n 590
1.23/2
0.21/0
L. Tousart n 862.3
1.15/1
0.52/1
J. Chotard n 879
0.63/1
0.11/0
K. Lala n 881.6
00/0
00/0
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Stade Brestois 29 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stade Brestois 29 before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Ajorque n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
B. Locko n 869.1
00/0
0.21/0
L. Tousart n 862.3
0.21/0
00/0
K. Lala n 881.6
00/0
0.11/0
J. Chotard n 879
00/0
0.11/0
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Toulouse

Toulouse Goalkeeper

Toulouse — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Guillaume Restes19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /90
Toulouse — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Guillaume Restes n 890
3.67/5

Toulouse Defensive

Toulouse — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Tape19090 min00 /9000 /9000 /9033 /9011 /9000 /90
M. McKenzie19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /9022 /9022 /9000 /90
R. Nicolaisen19090 min11 /9000 /9022 /9055 /9000 /9000 /90
I. Diallo17171 min22.5 /9000 /9000 /9056.3 /9011.3 /9000 /90
C. Cásseres19090 min33 /9000 /9000 /9066 /9000 /9000 /90
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Toulouse — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. McKenzie n 884.8
1.67/3
0.43/0
B. Locko
C. Cásseres n 888.6
1.57/3
1.16/3
—
R. Nicolaisen n 890
0.42/1
0.95/2
K. Lala
Guillaume Restes n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
N. Schmidt n 855.5
1.24/2
0.62/1
—
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Toulouse — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 888.6
2.77/6
R. Nicolaisen n 890
1.56/4
M. McKenzie n 884.8
1.16/1
N. Schmidt n 855.5
1.64/3
Y. Gboho n 876.8
1.86/3
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Toulouse Attacking

Toulouse — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Hidalgo17171 min00 /9000 /9022.5 /9011.3 /9000 /9000 /90
Y. Azizi11919 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9014.7 /90
C. Cásseres19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9044 /9000 /90
T. Jørgensen19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9033 /9022 /90
N. Schmidt18686 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9033.1 /9000 /90
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Toulouse — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Nicolaisen n 890
0.64/1
0.11/0
C. Cásseres n 888.6
0.53/1
0.11/0
Guillaume Restes n 890
00/0
00/0
M. McKenzie n 884.8
00/0
00/0
N. Schmidt n 855.5
0.83/1
0.62/1
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Toulouse — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 888.6
0.11/0
0.31/1
R. Nicolaisen n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Guillaume Restes n 890
00/0
00/0
M. McKenzie n 884.8
00/0
00/0
N. Schmidt n 855.5
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Stade Brestois 29Toulouse
51%Possession49%
3.04Expected goals (xG)1.14
27Shots6
7Shots on target2
12Shots off target3
8Blocked shots1
16Shots inside the box4
7Corners2
5Offsides0
19Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Saves5
432Passes445
83%Pass accuracy82%

Stade Brestois 29 Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Ajorque9010213008
J. Chotard9000113208.3
K. Lala9000102206.9
R. Le Guen9000201006.6
B. Locko90000015Y7.2
E. Selvik9000000006.3
G. Lloris8300100006.5
P. Mboup83002114Y6.2
M. Diambou7501422607.2
K. Doumbia7510210006.9
R. Del Castillo6700003106.2
Mama Baldé sub2300100006.3
J. Nonge Boende sub1500000106.7
H. Magnetti sub1501102007.3
L. Tousart sub1300210006.7
L. C. Laine M. sub1300000006.6

Toulouse Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Tape9010211207.7
R. Nicolaisen90000001Y7.5
M. McKenzie9000000106.9
Y. Gboho9001002006.9
C. Cásseres90010015Y8.7
Guillaume Restes9000000007.9
J. Russell-Rowe7810110107.3
T. Jørgensen7800102306.2
Julián Vignolo6700000106.3
A. Vossah6000000206.6
I. Diallo4500100106.3
R. Messali sub4500000106.2
N. Schmidt sub30000000Y6.6
S. Oppong sub2300000106.6
S. Hidalgo sub1200000006.3
S. Koumbassa sub1200000006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Stade Brestois 29LLLDD
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
ToulouseLDWWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Stade Brestois 29 3 · 1 draw · Toulouse 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-01-25 Stade Brestois 29 0–2 Toulouse
  • 2025-08-24 Toulouse 2–0 Stade Brestois 29
  • 2025-03-30 Toulouse 2–4 Stade Brestois 29
  • 2024-09-22 Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Toulouse
  • 2024-05-19 Toulouse 0–3 Stade Brestois 29
  • 2023-10-08 Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Toulouse
League standing · 2026/27
Stade Brestois 29#9 pos15 pts10 pl+6 GD
Toulouse#12 pos13 pts10 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Stade Brestois 29 scored1.8
Toulouse scored1.5
Stade Brestois 29 conceded1.2
Toulouse conceded1.4

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Stade Brestois 29 4.04 xG from 26 shots, Toulouse 1.31 from 6. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Pathé Mboup 50' · 0.62 xGRaphaël Le Guen 50' · 0.62 xGLucas Tousart 90' · 0.56 xGLucas Tousart 90' · 0.54 xGThomas Jørgensen 20' · 0.40 xGMamady Diambou 43' · 0.11 xGPathé Mboup 58' · 0.10 xGMamady Diambou 55' · 0.09 xGKamory Doumbia 48' · 0.08 xGMama Baldé 90' · 0.08 xGGautier Lloris 28' · 0.06 xGRaphaël Le Guen 92' · 0.05 xGLudovic Ajorque 32' · 0.05 xGChrist Tapé 45' · 0.05 xGHugo Magnetti 83' · 0.04 xGKenny Lala 42' · 0.04 xGPathé Mboup 10' · 0.03 xGNiklas Schmidt 64' · 0.02 xGMamady Diambou 74' · 0.02 xGPathé Mboup 57' · 0.02 xGMamady Diambou 17' · 0.02 xGJoris Chotard 49' · 0.02 xGIsmaïl Diallo 36' · 0.02 xGKenny Lala 71' · 0.01 xGJoris Chotard 80' · 0.01 xGJoris Chotard 92' · 0.01 xGMama Baldé 89' · 0.01 xGMama Baldé 84' · 0.01 xGChrist Tapé 61' · 0.44 xG · goalLudovic Ajorque 94' · 0.43 xG · goalKamory Doumbia 17' · 0.40 xG · goalJacen Russell-Rowe 8' · 0.38 xG · goal
Stade Brestois 29 (attacking right)Toulouse (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Stade Brestois 292624.04
Toulouse621.31

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Stade Brestois 29 0.70, Toulouse 0.84. At full time, Stade Brestois 29 led on xG, 4.04 to 1.31. The widest gap was 2.73 xG to Stade Brestois 29, in the 94th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.02.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Toulouse 8 minGoal - Stade Brestois 29 17 minGoal - Toulouse 61 minGoal - Stade Brestois 29 94 min
Stade Brestois 29 4.04 xGToulouse 1.31 xGdots = goals · 32 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse was Over 2.5 goals (best price 2.00 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse?
In their last 6 meetings, Stade Brestois 29 won 3, Toulouse won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse?
Recent form — Stade Brestois 29 0W 2D 3L; Toulouse 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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