St. Louis City v Toronto FC result

Full-time · St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC

Major League Soccer · · CITYPARK

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: St. Louis City · Toronto FC

The model’s pre-match pick

St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC — St. Louis City won this Major League Soccer match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.72 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78% of 214 landed (95% range 72–83.1%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 140 of 206 times (68%), against an average rating of 68.3%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

St. Louis City beat Toronto FC 3–1 at CITYPARK in Major League Soccer on Sunday 20 September. St. Louis City are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions.

The goals

St. Louis City led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — St. Louis City: C. Holse (41’, assisted by A. Mățan), T. Totland (54’, assisted by A. Mățan) and S. Becher (68’, assisted by C. Wallem); Toronto FC: Theo Corbeanu (90’, assisted by Alonso Coello).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with C. Holse’s goal on 41 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: St. Louis City 2.54, Toronto FC 1.08, from 17 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — St. Louis City: C. Wallem (28’) and F. Fall (72’); Toronto FC: Walker Zimmerman (23’) and Alonso Coello (74’).

What it changes

St. Louis City have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, C. Holse (St. Louis City) 8.3, A. Mățan (St. Louis City) 7.2 and Alonso Coello (Toronto FC) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, St. Louis City to win, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

St. Louis City next travel to Columbus Crew on 22 October 2026.

Toronto FC next travel to Columbus Crew on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for St. Louis City: Columbus Crew v St. Louis City, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for Toronto FC: Columbus Crew v Toronto FC, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
  • Venue: CITYPARK · St. Louis
  • Referee: L. Szpala
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): St. Louis City 1 · draws 0 · Toronto FC 0 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: St. Louis City 3W 2D 0L · Toronto FC 2W 2D 1L

St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 3 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.63 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
3.43 / 3.63
Corners
against 5.86 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.14 / 5
Shots on target
against 3.43 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.29 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.43 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSt. Louis City for / againstLineToronto FC for / against
Goals scored
2.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.25our book
1.88 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
3.43 for · 5.86 against n 7
9.5standard
3.63 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
10.71 for · 13.71 against n 7
19.5standard
13.13 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.14 for · 3.43 against n 7
8.5standard
5 for · 5.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
15.29 for · 13.71 against n 7
21.5standard
9.63 for · 10.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.29 for · 2.43 against n 7
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: L. Szpala.

St. Louis City
St. Louis City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Ault n 78.4
4.62/1
1.51/0
—
T. Ostrák n 823.9
2.85/1
00/0
—
C. Wallem n 889.8
2.67/6
0.94/2
N. Dorsch
Jaziel Orozco n 855.1
2.45/3
14/1
Matheus Pereira
M. Joyner n 828.6
2.42/1
1.62/1
—
St. Louis City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Rafael Navarro n 882.1
2.96/6
1.55/4
C. Holse n 841
2.56/3
1.44/1
S. Becher n 875.4
2.46/3
1.85/3
M. Joyner n 828.6
23/2
0.82/0
T. Ostrák n 823.9
1.93/1
0.51/0
St. Louis City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Rafael Navarro n 882.1
0.84/2
00/0
C. Holse n 841
0.52/0
0.31/0
S. Becher n 875.4
0.74/1
00/0
C. Wallem n 889.8
0.11/0
0.43/0
D. Edelman n 886.8
0.43/0
0.11/0
St. Louis City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Ault n 78.4
6.13/1
T. Ostrák n 823.9
4.25/3
F. Fall n 842.1
44/4
Jaziel Orozco n 855.1
3.57/4
C. Durkin n 877.6
37/6
St. Louis City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
R. Burki n 890.6
1.95/2
Toronto FC
Toronto FC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Raheem Edwards n 854.8
2.57/3
1.86/3
—
N. Dorsch n 882.8
1.96/4
1.68/4
C. Wallem
Alonso Coello n 861.6
1.85/3
0.95/0
—
Matheus Pereira n 845.1
1.74/2
1.55/1
Jaziel Orozco
Jonathan Osorio n 863.6
1.64/3
0.95/0
—
Toronto FC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Morgan n 850
2.56/5
1.34/2
Josh Sargent n 884
2.15/4
1.14/1
Dániel Sallói n 878.9
1.96/3
14/1
Emilio Aristizábal n 833
1.73/2
0.72/0
D. Mihailovic n 863.3
1.65/2
1.25/2
Toronto FC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Mihailovic n 863.3
0.21/0
0.73/1
Dániel Sallói n 878.9
0.43/0
0.43/0
Derrick Etienne n 848.4
0.52/0
0.21/0
Josh Sargent n 884
0.52/1
0.11/0
Theo Corbeanu n 862.6
00/0
0.53/0
Toronto FC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Raheem Edwards n 854.8
3.97/5
Nickseon Gomis n 848.9
2.86/4
Alonso Coello n 861.6
2.65/3
Kobe Franklin n 859.8
2.66/3
N. Dorsch n 882.8
1.97/5
Toronto FC — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Luka Gavran n 890
47/6

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
St. Louis CityToronto FC
61%Possession39%
2.54Expected goals (xG)1.08
17Shots10
8Shots on target2
5Shots off target2
4Blocked shots6
14Shots inside the box5
8Corners4
1Offsides0
16Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Saves5
470Passes294
85%Pass accuracy78%

St. Louis City player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Burki9000000007
Jaziel Orozco9000000106.6
T. Baumgartl9000100106.2
F. Fall90000001Y6.6
C. Durkin9000000107
T. Totland9010111007.2
C. Holse8910225209.9
Rafael Navarro8300111106.3
C. Wallem78010030Y7.2
A. Mățan7802213107.9
Jeong Sang-Bin4500112006.2
S. Becher sub4510420007.3
D. Downs sub1500100006.7
D. Edelman sub1200000006.3
D. Polvara sub1200000006.6
T. Ostrák sub10000000–

Toronto FC player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Luka Gavran9000000007.9
R. Laryea9000000406.5
Benjamin Kuscevic9000100206.3
Matheus Pereira9000001407.2
Alonso Coello90011043Y7.5
Dániel Sallói9000001006.3
Josh Sargent7400001006.2
Derrick Etienne6300000006.7
Markus Cimermancic6200000106.6
N. Dorsch6200000206.9
Walker Zimmerman56000000Y6.3
Nickseon Gomis sub3400000206.5
Jonathan Osorio sub2800000006.5
Theo Corbeanu sub2810110007.3
Zane Monlouis sub2700000206.5
L. Morgan sub1600110006.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind St. Louis City v Toronto FC — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
St. Louis CityDWDWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 3 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Toronto FCWDDWL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
St. Louis City 1 · 0 draws · Toronto FC 0 · 1 goals/game
  • 2023-07-08 Toronto FC 0–1 St. Louis City
League standing · 2026
St. Louis City#2 pos51 pts30 pl+15 GD
Toronto FC#10 pos36 pts30 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
St. Louis City scored1.87
Toronto FC scored1.53
St. Louis City conceded1.37
Toronto FC conceded1.83

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for St. Louis City v Toronto FC?
TACTIX’s free model pick for St. Louis City v Toronto FC was Home win (best price 1.72 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between St. Louis City and Toronto FC?
In their last 1 meetings, St. Louis City won 1, Toronto FC won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of St. Louis City and Toronto FC?
Recent form — St. Louis City 3W 2D 0L; Toronto FC 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s boards

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