This Matchweek

Aston VillaArsenal

Aston Villa v Arsenal result

Full-time · Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal

Premier League · · Villa Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Aston Villa · Arsenal · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal — Arsenal won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
Best price: 1.16 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1452 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Arsenal: 1.52 to 0.28 in expected goals, from 7 shots to 7, ahead on xG from the seventh minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Arsenal won 1–0 at Villa Park in the Premier League on Monday 31 August. Arsenal have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Arsenal: Bukayo Saka (59’, assisted by Riccardo Calafiori).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Bukayo Saka’s goal on 59 minutes.

Discipline

Jarred Gillett, Australia showed four yellow cards — against 5.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Aston Villa: Alysson Edward (80’), John McGinn (81’) and Ian Maatsen (90+6’); Arsenal: Christos Tzolis (29’).

What it changes

Aston Villa move up from 20th to 19th (shared) (two league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Arsenal move down from first to second (two league matches played). Arsenal have scored 14 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Arsenal have conceded five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 matches in all competitions. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) 9.2, Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal) 4.7 and Declan Rice (Arsenal) 4.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Arsenal, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (989 of 1452).

Next up

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Arsenal next host Hull City on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Arsenal: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal · Premier League
  • Venue: Villa Park · Birmingham
  • Referee: Jarred Gillett, Australia
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Aston Villa 3 · draws 1 · Arsenal 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Aston Villa 3W 0D 2L · Arsenal 4W 1D 0L

Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 14 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.63 / 0.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.88 / 4
Corners
against 4.25 / 3.14 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.25 / 5.14
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 2.14 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2 / 1.43
Cards
against 1.63 / 1.71 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 23 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAston Villa for / againstLineArsenal for / against
Goals scored
2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.75our book
1.88 for · 0.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 4.25 against n 8
9.5standard
4 for · 3.14 against n 7
Shots
13.13 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
15 for · 8.14 against n 7
Shots on target
5.25 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
5.14 for · 2.14 against n 7
Fouls committed
11 for · 12.13 against n 8
21.5standard
10 for · 12.57 against n 7
Cards shown
2 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.43 for · 1.71 against n 7

Referee: Jarred Gillett, Australia.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Bizot293186 min73.4 /9062.9 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Bizot n 879.6
4.17/6

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Cash293186 min41.9 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9062.9 /9021 /9010.5 /90
V. Lindelöf293186 min00 /9010.5 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
I. Maatsen289178 min63 /9021 /9000 /90126.1 /9000 /9000 /90
Pau Torres277153 min21.2 /9010.6 /9000 /9042.4 /9021.2 /9010.6 /90
T. Mings21733 min12.7 /9000 /9000 /9012.7 /9000 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
George Hemmings n 462
1.83/2
1.12/1
—
M. Cash n 883.9
0.85/1
0.84/2
Gabriel Magalhães
V. Lindelöf n 876
0.42/1
0.32/0
Gabriel Magalhães
M. Bizot n 879.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
—
E. Buendía n 877.4
1.97/3
2.87/6
—
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
George Hemmings n 462
2.23/2
M. Cash n 883.9
1.95/4
V. Lindelöf n 876
0.43/0
E. Buendía n 877.4
2.67/4
I. Maatsen n 885.3
25/5
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
E. Buendía291182 min00 /9000 /9052.5 /9000 /9021 /9000 /90
Brian Madjo17272 min11.3 /9000 /9056.3 /9011.3 /9022.5 /9000 /90
Alysson Edward12323 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.9 /90
George Hemmings293186 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9021 /9010.5 /90
B. Kamara281162 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9010.6 /9000 /9010.6 /90
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
George Hemmings n 462
0.41/0
0.41/0
M. Cash n 883.9
0.11/0
00/0
V. Lindelöf n 876
0.11/0
00/0
M. Bizot n 879.6
00/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 877.4
2.27/5
0.94/2
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Cash n 883.9
00/0
0.11/0
M. Bizot n 879.6
00/0
00/0
V. Lindelöf n 876
00/0
00/0
George Hemmings n 462
00/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 877.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
See more players · Pro

Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David Raya290180 min52.5 /9000 /9000 /90
Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 890
2.15/4

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Ben White290180 min63 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90105 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Cristhian Mosquera290180 min21 /9010.5 /9000 /9042 /9021 /9000 /90
Gabriel Magalhães290180 min00 /9021 /9000 /9042 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90
Riccardo Calafiori271141 min21.3 /9000 /9000 /9031.9 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
Piero Hincapié13030 min13 /9000 /9000 /9026 /9013 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro
Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Cristhian Mosquera n 882.4
1.57/2
15/2
—
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
1.16/2
1.57/3
V. Lindelöf
Ben White n 871.6
0.94/2
0.32/0
—
David Raya n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
K. Havertz n 858
1.67/1
0.82/2
—
See more players · Pro
Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Cristhian Mosquera n 882.4
1.55/3
Ben White n 871.6
1.34/1
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
0.54/0
Myles Lewis-Skelly n 877
0.94/2
K. Havertz n 858
0.62/1
See more players · Pro

Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
K. Havertz283165 min21.1 /9000 /9021.1 /9021.1 /9021.1 /9000 /90
Noni Madueke24182 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9011.1 /9044.4 /9011.1 /90
C. Tzolis283166 min00 /9021.1 /9031.6 /9021.1 /9063.3 /9000 /90
Myles Lewis-Skelly283165 min00 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9000 /9021.1 /9000 /90
Martin Ødegaard280160 min21.1 /9000 /9031.7 /9031.7 /9052.8 /9031.7 /90
See more players · Pro
Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
0.95/2
0.32/0
Ben White n 871.6
0.21/0
00/0
Cristhian Mosquera n 882.4
0.11/0
00/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Havertz n 858
1.65/2
14/1
See more players · Pro
Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ben White n 871.6
00/0
0.21/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
00/0
00/0
Cristhian Mosquera n 882.4
00/0
00/0
K. Havertz n 858
0.84/0
0.42/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Aston VillaArsenal
39%Possession61%
0.33Expected goals (xG)1.04
7Shots7
0Shots on target2
5Shots off target4
2Blocked shots1
3Shots inside the box5
2Corners4
0Offsides8
17Fouls6
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Saves0
339Passes530
81%Pass accuracy88%

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Z. Suzuki9000000006.3
V. Lindelöf9000000106.9
Pau Torres9000000106.4
I. Maatsen90002003Y6.1
B. Kamara9000001106.6
J. McGinn90002011Y5.9
E. Buendía9000101106
M. Cash7800100406.8
R. Barkley7800102306.8
George Hemmings7100000206.3
N. Jackson7100000006.3
Alysson Edward19000001Y6.1
T. Abraham1900000006.7
A. Wan-Bissaka1200000206.6
A. Garnacho1200000006.5

Arsenal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
David Raya9000000006.6
Ben White9000001106.9
Gabriel Magalhães9000100207.3
Riccardo Calafiori9001101107.9
Bukayo Saka9010210208.2
K. Havertz9000110006.5
Declan Rice8500002307.2
Cristhian Mosquera7900000007.2
Myles Lewis-Skelly7100100006.9
Martin Ødegaard7100100207
C. Tzolis45000010Y6.5
Eberechi Eze4500000006.8
Bruno Guimarães1900000006.7
Mikel Merino1900000007.1
E. Konsa1100000007
Martín Zubimendi500000207.1

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Aston Villa v Arsenal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Aston VillaWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
ArsenalWWDWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Aston Villa 3 · 1 draw · Arsenal 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2025-12-30 Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa
  • 2025-12-06 Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal
  • 2025-01-18 Arsenal 2–2 Aston Villa
  • 2024-08-24 Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal
  • 2024-04-14 Arsenal 0–2 Aston Villa
  • 2023-12-09 Aston Villa 1–0 Arsenal
League standing · 2026/27
Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD
Arsenal#1 pos24 pts9 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Aston Villa scored1.11
Arsenal scored1.56
Aston Villa conceded1.44
Arsenal conceded0.56

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Aston Villa 0.28 xG from 7 shots, Arsenal 1.52 from 7. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Gabriel 7' · 0.33 xGMartin Odegaard 56' · 0.09 xGMatthew Cash 64' · 0.08 xGRiccardo Calafiori 17' · 0.05 xGMyles Lewis-Skelly 7' · 0.05 xGIan Maatsen 26' · 0.04 xGIan Maatsen 46' · 0.04 xGBukayo Saka 12' · 0.04 xGJohn McGinn 69' · 0.04 xGRoss Barkley 67' · 0.04 xGKai Havertz 73' · 0.04 xGEmiliano Buendía 11' · 0.03 xGJohn McGinn 6' · 0.02 xGBukayo Saka 58' · 0.94 xG · goal
Aston Villa (attacking right)Arsenal (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Aston Villa700.28
Arsenal711.52

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Arsenal led on xG, 0.46 to 0.09. At full time, Arsenal led on xG, 1.52 to 0.28. The widest gap was 1.36 xG to Arsenal, in the 58th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.50.800′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Arsenal 58 min
Aston Villa 0.28 xGArsenal 1.52 xGdots = goals · 14 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Aston Villa v Arsenal?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Aston Villa v Arsenal was Draw or Away (best price 1.16 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Arsenal?
In their last 6 meetings, Aston Villa won 3, Arsenal won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Arsenal?
Recent form — Aston Villa 3W 0D 2L; Arsenal 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+