Manchester United v Aston Villa prediction

Premier League · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT · Old Trafford

Updated 5 Nov 2026, 18:47 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Manchester United · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Manchester United v Aston Villa, Premier League on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Away

Odds: 1.28 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.6% of 5130 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Predicted on 31 October 2026, before the fixture moved

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,906 of 2,552 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Manchester United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 16:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Manchester United or Aston Villa (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Eight of Manchester United’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Manchester United’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Manchester United have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.14 and conceding 1.71. Manchester United have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Manchester United have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in eight of Aston Villa’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Aston Villa have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.88. Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Manchester United (17th) and Aston Villa (10th) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Aston Villa the stronger side, 181 rating points above Manchester United (Aston Villa 1692, Manchester United 1511, after at least 275 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa.

Team news

Predicted Manchester United XI (4-2-3-1): S. Lammens, D. Dalot, H. Maguire, L. Yoro, L. Martínez, B. Fernandes, A. Diallo, C. Baleba, Y. Tielemans, A. Santos, B. Mbeumo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bruno Fernandes (4.4 per match over 13 appearances, five goals and two assists) and Matheus Cunha (3.8 per match over 14 appearances, four goals and two assists) have been Manchester United’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Manchester United (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bruno Fernandes averages 2.8 key passes per 90 over 2011 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Matheus Cunha averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 1246 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Aston Villa XI (4-2-3-1): Z. Suzuki, V. Lindelöf, M. Cash, P. Torres, I. Maatsen, J. McGinn, B. Kamara, J. Gomes, E. Buendía, J. Manzambi, N. Jackson — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Johan Manzambi (4.8 per match over nine appearances, three goals and three assists) and Nicolas Jackson (4.7 per match over 13 appearances, eight goals) have been Aston Villa’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Aston Villa (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Johan Manzambi averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 1217 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nicolas Jackson averages 2.8 shots per 90 over 1327 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

The referee

C. Kavanagh takes charge; across the last 22 matches refereed (this competition) the referee has shown 4.4 yellow cards a game and 0.14 reds.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT · Premier League · Old Trafford
Referee: C. Kavanagh
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Manchester United 4 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 1 · 2.83 goals/game
Recent form: Manchester United 1W 1D 3L · Aston Villa 2W 1D 2L

Manchester United v Aston Villa (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 1.88

Goals

against 2 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

5.5 / 5.63

Corners

against 3.13 / 5.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.63 / 5.25

Shots on target

against 5.63 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

3 / 1.88

Cards

against 2 / 3 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.41 yellows

Referee · C. Kavanagh

22.55 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 22 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Manchester United for / against	Line	Aston Villa for / against
Goals scored	0.88 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.5 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	15.75 for · 14.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.63 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.25 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.38 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.13 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: C. Kavanagh — 4.41 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 22.55 fouls over 22 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Manchester United

Manchester United Goalkeeper

Manchester United — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
S. Lammens	13	901170 min	393 /90	141.1 /90	00 /90
K. Darlow	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Manchester United — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
S. Lammens n 8	90	3.6 7/5

Manchester United Defensive

Manchester United — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Diogo Dalot	12	83999 min	252.3 /90	201.8 /90	20.2 /90	665.9 /90	111 /90	20.2 /90
H. Maguire	11	90988 min	141.3 /90	191.7 /90	50.5 /90	625.6 /90	100.9 /90	50.5 /90
Lisandro Martínez	11	71778 min	91 /90	80.9 /90	60.7 /90	252.9 /90	111.3 /90	10.1 /90
Leny Yoro	9	77689 min	172.2 /90	202.6 /90	10.1 /90	293.8 /90	70.9 /90	00 /90
A. Heaven	6	71424 min	91.9 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90	285.9 /90	81.7 /90	20.4 /90
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Manchester United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Mbeumo n 8	89.5	1 5/2	1.1 7/2	—
S. Lammens n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Bruno Fernandes n 8	76.5	0.6 2/2	1.2 4/3	—
Y. Tielemans n 8	70.4	1.1 6/1	2.4 7/5	—
Diogo Dalot n 8	82.6	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0	—
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Manchester United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Mbeumo n 8	89.5	1 6/2
Bruno Fernandes n 8	76.5	1.2 6/1
Y. Tielemans n 8	70.4	2.4 6/3
Diogo Dalot n 8	82.6	2.7 8/5
H. Maguire n 8	89.8	1.6 7/3
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Manchester United Attacking

Manchester United — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
B. Mbeumo	14	841172 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	241.8 /90	141.1 /90	201.5 /90	110.8 /90
Matheus Cunha	11	76835 min	40.4 /90	20.2 /90	212.3 /90	121.3 /90	141.5 /90	91 /90
J. Zirkzee	6	24146 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	53.1 /90	31.8 /90	31.8 /90	63.7 /90
Benjamin Šeško	5	39196 min	20.9 /90	00 /90	41.8 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	20.9 /90
S. Lacey	3	3399 min	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	21.8 /90	54.5 /90
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Manchester United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Mbeumo n 8	89.5	1.8 8/4	1 6/2
S. Lammens n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Bruno Fernandes n 8	76.5	2.4 8/4	0.4 3/0
Y. Tielemans n 8	70.4	1.1 4/1	0.2 1/0
Diogo Dalot n 8	82.6	1 4/3	0.1 1/0
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Manchester United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Mbeumo n 8	89.5	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
S. Lammens n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Bruno Fernandes n 8	76.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Y. Tielemans n 8	70.4	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Diogo Dalot n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Z. Suzuki	13	871125 min	473.8 /90	90.7 /90	00 /90
M. Bizot	4	80321 min	133.6 /90	61.7 /90	00 /90

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	3.8 7/6
M. Bizot n 8	79.6	3.8 7/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
V. Lindelöf	14	901266 min	40.3 /90	70.5 /90	20.1 /90	181.3 /90	40.3 /90	00 /90
M. Cash	12	80954 min	343.2 /90	40.4 /90	60.6 /90	504.7 /90	191.8 /90	50.5 /90
I. Maatsen	10	88876 min	222.3 /90	141.4 /90	20.2 /90	454.6 /90	90.9 /90	30.3 /90
Pau Torres	10	81808 min	70.8 /90	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	202.2 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
T. Mings	10	73728 min	60.7 /90	40.5 /90	20.2 /90	253.1 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. McGinn n 8	70.6	1.1 5/2	2.1 6/4	—
E. Buendía n 8	62	1.6 6/3	1.8 6/2	—
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0	—
R. Barkley n 8	43.5	2.6 6/3	1 2/1	—
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. McGinn n 8	70.6	2.1 6/4
E. Buendía n 8	62	4.4 5/5
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0.4 3/0
R. Barkley n 8	43.5	0.5 1/1
B. Kamara n 8	85.8	3.5 7/6
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
N. Jackson	13	74968 min	80.7 /90	00 /90	323 /90	181.7 /90	141.3 /90	272.5 /90
I. Mbaye	11	40442 min	00 /90	40.8 /90	142.9 /90	61.2 /90	173.5 /90	91.8 /90
Alysson Edward	11	38418 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	81.7 /90	20.4 /90	71.5 /90	122.6 /90
T. Abraham	6	32192 min	20.9 /90	00 /90	31.4 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	20.9 /90
A. Garnacho	3	2265 min	00 /90	00 /90	45.5 /90	22.8 /90	11.4 /90	11.4 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. McGinn n 8	70.6	1.1 4/2	0.6 2/1
E. Buendía n 8	62	3.1 6/4	0.9 2/2
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Barkley n 8	43.5	2.3 5/2	1.6 4/2
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. McGinn n 8	70.6	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
E. Buendía n 8	62	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Barkley n 8	43.5	1 3/1	0.5 2/0
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Manchester United v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Manchester UnitedDLLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Aston VillaWWLDL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Manchester United 4 · 1 draw · Aston Villa 1 · 2.83 goals/game

2026-03-15 Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa
2025-12-21 Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester United
2025-05-25 Manchester United 2–0 Aston Villa
2024-10-06 Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester United
2024-02-11 Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester United
2023-12-26 Manchester United 3–2 Aston Villa

League standing · 2026/27

Manchester United#17 pos7 pts9 pl-5 GD

Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

Manchester United scored1.11

Aston Villa scored1.11

Manchester United conceded1.67

Aston Villa conceded1.44

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Manchester United v Aston Villa?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Manchester United v Aston Villa is Home or Away (odds 1.28 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Aston Villa?: In their last 6 meetings, Manchester United won 4, Aston Villa won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Manchester United and Aston Villa?: Recent form — Manchester United 1W 1D 3L; Aston Villa 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Nov 2026, 18:47 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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