This Matchweek

Aston VillaNottingham Forest

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest result

Full-time · Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest

Premier League · · Villa Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Aston Villa · Nottingham Forest · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest — Nottingham Forest won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
Best price: 1.67 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1452 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Nottingham Forest: 2.80 to 1.09 in expected goals, from 22 shots to 7, ahead on xG from the 57th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Nottingham Forest have scored six goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games).

Nottingham Forest won 2–1 at Villa Park in the Premier League on Saturday 12 September.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Nottingham Forest: Liam Delap (46’, assisted by Murillo) and Igor Jesus (88’, assisted by Morgan Gibbs-White); Aston Villa: Alysson Edward (74’, assisted by John McGinn).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Igor Jesus’s goal on 88 minutes.

Discipline

Andy Madley, England showed seven yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Aston Villa: Nicolas Jackson (45’) and Tyrone Mings (90+5’); Nottingham Forest: Dan Ndoye (43’), Murillo (45+3’), Xaver Schlager (56’), Liam Delap (74’) and James McAtee (80’).

What it changes

Aston Villa move down from 17th to 18th (four league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nottingham Forest move up from 16th to 10th (four league matches played). Nottingham Forest have conceded 12 goals, the 10th-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games).

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest) 6.6, Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Aston Villa) 6.3 and Xaver Schlager (Nottingham Forest) 6.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Nottingham Forest, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (989 of 1452).

Next up

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Nottingham Forest next host Manchester City on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest · Premier League
  • Venue: Villa Park · Birmingham
  • Referee: Andy Madley, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Aston Villa 3 · draws 1 · Nottingham Forest 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Aston Villa 1W 1D 3L · Nottingham Forest 0W 3D 2L

Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 26 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 3.75
Corners
against 4.38 / 4.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 2
Cards
against 1.38 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 8 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 8 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAston Villa for / againstLineNottingham Forest for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5our book
0.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
3.88 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
13.13 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
11.75 for · 16 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.38 for · 5 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.38 for · 11 against n 8
21.5standard
13.25 for · 11.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: Andy Madley, England.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Z. Suzuki390270 min103.3 /9020.7 /9000 /90
M. Bizot293186 min73.4 /9062.9 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 390
3.32/2
M. Bizot n 879.6
4.17/6

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
V. Lindelöf591456 min10.2 /9010.2 /9000 /9040.8 /9020.4 /9000 /90
I. Maatsen587433 min112.3 /9081.7 /9000 /90193.9 /9051 /9020.4 /90
M. Cash487349 min82.1 /9010.3 /9020.5 /90143.6 /9051.3 /9010.3 /90
Pau Torres483333 min41.1 /9010.3 /9010.3 /9061.6 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90
T. Mings341123 min21.5 /9000 /9000 /9064.4 /9000 /9000 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
V. Lindelöf n 880
0.73/2
0.11/0
Murillo
I. Maatsen n 885.9
14/1
0.42/1
Murillo
J. McGinn n 877.5
2.27/5
26/6
—
George Hemmings n 769.1
26/5
1.33/2
—
E. Buendía n 883.9
1.36/2
2.58/6
—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
V. Lindelöf n 880
0.43/0
I. Maatsen n 885.9
2.47/5
J. McGinn n 877.5
1.98/3
George Hemmings n 769.1
1.96/3
E. Buendía n 883.9
1.96/2
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Alysson Edward42079 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.1 /90
N. Jackson379237 min10.4 /9000 /9041.5 /9020.8 /9041.5 /9062.3 /90
Brian Madjo17272 min11.3 /9000 /9056.3 /9011.3 /9022.5 /9000 /90
A. Garnacho11515 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9016 /90
J. McGinn585425 min10.2 /9010.2 /9081.7 /9030.6 /9091.9 /9040.8 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
V. Lindelöf n 880
0.11/0
00/0
I. Maatsen n 885.9
0.74/1
00/0
J. McGinn n 877.5
1.68/2
0.95/1
George Hemmings n 769.1
0.73/1
0.63/0
E. Buendía n 883.9
2.38/6
0.73/2
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Lindelöf n 880
00/0
00/0
I. Maatsen n 885.9
00/0
00/0
J. McGinn n 877.5
0.32/0
0.32/0
George Hemmings n 769.1
00/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 883.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Sels490360 min71.8 /9051.3 /9000 /90
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 890
37/5

Nottingham Forest Defensive

Nottingham Forest — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Jair490360 min71.8 /9030.8 /9020.5 /90184.5 /9041 /9020.5 /90
N. Milenković490360 min71.8 /9041 /9041 /90307.5 /9061.5 /9010.3 /90
Murillo475298 min61.8 /9020.6 /9020.6 /90133.9 /9051.5 /9010.3 /90
L. Netz22345 min12 /9000 /9000 /9048 /9024 /9000 /90
O. Diomande16060 min23 /9011.5 /9000 /9046 /9023 /9000 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Milenković n 890
1.37/2
0.64/1
—
Jair n 877
0.74/1
1.35/3
—
M. Sels n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
N. Williams n 888.6
15/1
1.97/4
—
Murillo n 868.4
1.54/2
0.21/0
I. Maatsen
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Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Jair n 877
1.87/4
N. Milenković n 890
1.67/4
N. Williams n 888.6
38/8
Murillo n 868.4
1.53/3
X. Schlager n 471.5
4.13/3
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Nottingham Forest Attacking

Nottingham Forest — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Igor Jesus468270 min00 /9000 /9041.3 /9031 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
D. Ndoye454217 min10.4 /9000 /9031.2 /9010.4 /9020.8 /9031.2 /90
Morgan Gibbs-White390270 min10.3 /9010.3 /9062 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9041.3 /90
C. Wood345134 min00 /9000 /9021.3 /9010.7 /9000 /9000 /90
L. Delap24998 min00 /9000 /9010.9 /9000 /9032.8 /9021.8 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Milenković n 890
0.53/1
00/0
Jair n 877
0.32/0
0.11/0
M. Sels n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Williams n 888.6
0.53/1
0.11/0
Murillo n 868.4
0.83/2
00/0
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Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Milenković n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Sels n 890
00/0
00/0
Jair n 877
00/0
00/0
N. Williams n 888.6
00/0
00/0
Murillo n 868.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
54%Possession46%
0.82Expected goals (xG)2.28
7Shots22
5Shots on target7
1Shots off target12
1Blocked shots3
6Shots inside the box14
6Corners1
0Offsides4
11Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
5Saves5
421Passes360
82%Pass accuracy86%

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Wan-Bissaka9000001506.9
V. Lindelöf9000110006.3
B. Kamara9000001307.2
J. McGinn9001002107.2
Z. Suzuki9000000007.2
I. Maatsen8300110106.3
R. Barkley6300110406.7
E. Buendía6300000006.2
George Hemmings4500001006.5
N. Jackson45000000Y6.3
Pau Torres2500000006.9
T. Mings sub65001001Y7.2
T. Abraham sub4500000006.5
Alysson Edward sub4510110007.5
I. Mbaye sub2700111106.6
J. Manzambi sub2700000106.3

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Morgan Gibbs-White9001217107.5
N. Williams9000201106.7
X. Schlager90001116Y7.3
O. Diomande9000100106.9
Murillo90010012Y6.6
O. Aina9000000306.9
M. Sels9000000007.3
D. Muñoz9000115408
L. Delap89105111Y7.2
J. McAtee82002123Y7.5
D. Ndoye75003110Y6.6
Igor Jesus sub1510111007.7
I. Sangaré sub800100106.7
C. Wood sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Aston VillaLLLDW
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Nottingham ForestDLLDD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Aston Villa 3 · 1 draw · Nottingham Forest 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-07 Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest
  • 2026-04-30 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa
  • 2026-04-12 Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa
  • 2026-01-03 Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2025-04-05 Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-12-14 Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa
League standing · 2026/27
Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD
Nottingham Forest#19 pos6 pts9 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Aston Villa scored1.11
Nottingham Forest scored0.67
Aston Villa conceded1.44
Nottingham Forest conceded1.33

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Aston Villa 1.09 xG from 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 2.80 from 22. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Liam Delap 57' · 0.63 xGVictor Lindelöf 6' · 0.60 xGDan Ndoye 58' · 0.54 xGDaniel Muñoz 84' · 0.19 xGDan Ndoye 60' · 0.14 xGDan Ndoye 68' · 0.12 xGIan Maatsen 6' · 0.10 xGDan Ndoye 34' · 0.08 xGNeco Williams 46' · 0.08 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 22' · 0.06 xGNeco Williams 85' · 0.06 xGLiam Delap 54' · 0.06 xGTyrone Mings 96' · 0.05 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 95' · 0.05 xGIan Maatsen 7' · 0.05 xGXaver Schlager 85' · 0.04 xGOusmane Diomande 15' · 0.04 xGLiam Delap 78' · 0.04 xGLiam Delap 79' · 0.04 xGLiam Delap 60' · 0.03 xGIbrahim Mbaye 72' · 0.02 xGDan Ndoye 49' · 0.02 xGRoss Barkley 31' · 0.02 xGJames McAtee 76' · 0.02 xGJames McAtee 11' · 0.02 xGIbrahim Sangare 89' · 0.01 xGIgor Jesus 87' · 0.53 xG · goalAlysson Edward 73' · 0.25 xG · goalLiam Delap 45' · 0.01 xG · goal
Aston Villa (attacking right)Nottingham Forest (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Aston Villa711.09
Nottingham Forest2222.80

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Aston Villa led on xG, 0.77 to 0.22. At full time, Nottingham Forest led on xG, 2.80 to 1.09. The widest gap was 1.76 xG to Nottingham Forest, in the 95th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.81.400′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Nottingham Forest 45 minGoal - Aston Villa 73 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 87 min
Aston Villa 1.09 xGNottingham Forest 2.80 xGdots = goals · 29 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest was Draw or Away (best price 1.67 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest?
In their last 6 meetings, Aston Villa won 3, Nottingham Forest won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest?
Recent form — Aston Villa 1W 1D 3L; Nottingham Forest 0W 3D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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