This Matchweek

BrightonArsenal

Brighton v Arsenal result

Full-time · Brighton 3–0 Arsenal

Premier League · · American Express Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Brighton · Arsenal · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Brighton 3–0 Arsenal — Brighton won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.75 at Betfair
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Brighton: 2.25 to 1.29 in expected goals, from 17 shots to 11, ahead on xG from the 56th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0 at American Express Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 19 September. Brighton have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Brighton led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Brighton: Pascal Groß (31’, assisted by Charalampos Kostoulas), Charalampos Kostoulas (45’, assisted by D. Gómez) and José María Andrés Baixauli (57’, assisted by Pascal Groß).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pascal Groß’s goal on 31 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Brighton: Charalampos Kostoulas (33’), Ferdi Kadıoğlu (45+1’), Pascal Struijk (71’) and Maxim De Cuyper (90+1’); Arsenal: Declan Rice (90+7’).

What it changes

Brighton move up from fourth to third (five league matches played). Brighton have scored 24 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Brighton have conceded seven goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Arsenal move down from first to second (five league matches played). Arsenal have scored 14 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Arsenal have conceded five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs.

Brighton are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Pascal Groß (Brighton) 8.7, D. Gómez (Brighton) 7.8 and Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton) 6.9 led the match.

Head-to-head

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Brighton, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (366 of 543).

Next up

Brighton next host Brentford on 8 November 2026.

Arsenal next host Hull City on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Brighton: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Arsenal: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Brighton 3–0 Arsenal · Premier League
  • Venue: American Express Stadium · Falmer, East Sussex
  • Referee: Darren England, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Brighton 0 · draws 2 · Arsenal 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Brighton 3W 1D 1L · Arsenal 5W 0D 0L

Brighton 3–0 Arsenal (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 3 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.5 / 2.13
Goals
against 1.25 / 0.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.38 / 4.14
Corners
against 3.63 / 2.57 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.63 / 5.86
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 2.86 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.75 / 1.29
Cards
against 1.38 / 3 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 16 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBrighton for / againstLineArsenal for / against
Goals scored
2.5 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.75our book
2.13 for · 0.5 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 3.63 against n 8
9.5standard
4.14 for · 2.57 against n 7
Shots
19.38 for · 10 against n 8
19.5standard
14.43 for · 8.71 against n 7
Shots on target
5.63 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
5.86 for · 2.86 against n 7
Fouls committed
13.63 for · 8.5 against n 8
21.5standard
10.86 for · 14 against n 7
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.29 for · 3 against n 7

Referee: Darren England, England.

Brighton

Brighton Goalkeeper

Brighton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Verbruggen690540 min111.8 /9050.8 /9000 /90
Jason Steele19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 890
2.13/3
Jason Steele n 890
3.66/4

Brighton Defensive

Brighton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Vušković788618 min91.3 /9091.3 /9030.4 /90466.7 /9060.9 /9010.1 /90
O. Boscagli786601 min50.7 /9060.9 /9010.1 /90223.3 /90111.6 /9010.1 /90
L. Dunk581405 min30.7 /9020.4 /9051.1 /90214.7 /9040.9 /9010.2 /90
F. Kadıoğlu572361 min30.7 /9010.2 /9000 /9082 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
M. Wieffer473293 min92.8 /90103.1 /9041.2 /90247.4 /9030.9 /9000 /90
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Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Groß n 890
1.16/3
00/0
Declan Rice
L. Vušković n 788.3
0.96/0
1.25/3
Gabriel Magalhães
O. Boscagli n 886.4
1.45/3
1.26/3
Gabriel Magalhães
D. Gómez n 870.9
1.35/3
0.32/0
Martin Ødegaard
C. Kostoulas n 863.1
1.85/3
1.24/2
—
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Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Groß n 890
0.83/2
L. Vušković n 788.3
1.36/3
O. Boscagli n 886.4
0.95/2
D. Gómez n 870.9
2.17/4
C. Kostoulas n 863.1
0.74/0
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Brighton Attacking

Brighton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Kostoulas768474 min30.6 /9010.2 /90214 /9061.1 /9061.1 /9071.3 /90
I. Osman339117 min00 /9000 /9021.5 /9010.8 /9043.1 /9032.3 /90
G. Rutter284168 min00 /9010.5 /9031.6 /9010.5 /9042.1 /9031.6 /90
Z. Yohanna12424 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.8 /9000 /90
P. Groß790630 min30.4 /9020.3 /90131.9 /9050.7 /90263.7 /9010.1 /90
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Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Groß n 890
1.87/4
0.86/0
L. Vušković n 788.3
1.57/3
0.43/0
O. Boscagli n 886.4
0.85/1
0.43/0
D. Gómez n 870.9
2.57/4
0.84/1
C. Kostoulas n 863.1
3.98/5
1.15/1
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Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Groß n 890
0.43/0
0.31/1
L. Vušković n 788.3
0.11/0
0.11/0
O. Boscagli n 886.4
0.11/0
00/0
D. Gómez n 870.9
00/0
0.21/0
C. Kostoulas n 863.1
0.53/0
0.21/0
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Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David Raya690540 min142.3 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 890
2.15/4
Kepa Arrizabalaga n 889.6
1.85/2

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Gabriel Magalhães784585 min40.6 /90111.7 /9040.6 /90233.5 /9071.1 /9020.3 /90
Ben White681487 min132.4 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90264.8 /9040.7 /9000 /90
Riccardo Calafiori578388 min40.9 /9010.2 /9010.2 /9092.1 /9040.9 /9010.2 /90
E. Konsa479315 min61.7 /9041.1 /9010.3 /90205.7 /9041.1 /9000 /90
Cristhian Mosquera386259 min20.7 /9020.7 /9000 /9041.4 /9020.7 /9000 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Gabriel Magalhães n 878.8
1.16/2
15/2
O. Boscagli
David Raya n 890
00/0
0.53/1
—
Ben White n 875.6
0.74/1
0.74/1
—
Martin Ødegaard n 874.4
0.21/0
1.56/3
D. Gómez
Declan Rice n 879.9
0.73/2
0.32/0
P. Groß
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 878.8
0.63/1
Ben White n 875.6
2.17/4
Martin Ødegaard n 874.4
1.25/2
Declan Rice n 879.9
1.75/3
Bukayo Saka n 876.3
1.55/2
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
K. Havertz673440 min30.6 /9000 /9081.6 /9061.2 /9071.4 /9000 /90
Viktor Gyökeres359178 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9042 /9000 /90
Martin Ødegaard681483 min40.7 /9000 /9081.5 /9050.9 /90203.7 /9081.5 /90
Declan Rice677459 min00 /9020.4 /9040.8 /9000 /9071.4 /9000 /90
Bukayo Saka673440 min30.6 /9000 /90173.5 /9091.8 /9051 /9071.4 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 878.8
0.95/1
0.31/1
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Ben White n 875.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
Martin Ødegaard n 874.4
1.25/2
0.84/1
Declan Rice n 879.9
0.62/2
00/0
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 878.8
00/0
00/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Ben White n 875.6
00/0
0.11/0
Martin Ødegaard n 874.4
0.64/0
0.21/0
Declan Rice n 879.9
00/0
0.32/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BrightonArsenal
40%Possession60%
1.31Expected goals (xG)1.63
17Shots11
5Shots on target2
9Shots off target4
3Blocked shots5
10Shots inside the box10
5Corners6
0Offsides2
13Fouls11
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Saves2
343Passes511
76%Pass accuracy85%

Brighton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Verbruggen9000000007.9
M. De Cuyper90001024Y7.7
Y. Ayari9000101106.7
P. Groß9011112108.5
O. Boscagli9000000207.5
L. Vušković9000000207.7
D. Gómez8601002507.5
P. Struijk86001001Y7.3
José María Andrés Baixauli8510210008
F. Kadıoğlu76001010Y6.6
C. Kostoulas76114211Y7.3
G. Rutter sub1400100006.9
Costinha sub1400000006.9
M. Yalcouyé sub1200101107
M. O'Riley sub1100110006.6
M. Svoboda sub1100000106.9

Arsenal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
K. Havertz9000210006.9
Declan Rice90001012Y6.6
Riccardo Calafiori9000102306.3
Gabriel Magalhães9000001306.9
E. Konsa9000001006
David Raya9000000106.9
Bukayo Saka8100113107.2
C. Tzolis7300000106.5
Martin Ødegaard7300000006
Bruno Guimarães6000000006.3
J. Timber6000000206.2
Martín Zubimendi sub3000100006.3
Mikel Merino sub3000000006.5
Viktor Gyökeres sub1700001006.3
Eberechi Eze sub1700000006.6
Max Dowman sub900001006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Brighton v Arsenal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BrightonWLDWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
ArsenalWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Brighton 0 · 2 draws · Arsenal 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-03-04 Brighton 0–1 Arsenal
  • 2025-12-27 Arsenal 2–1 Brighton
  • 2025-10-29 Arsenal 2–0 Brighton
  • 2025-01-04 Brighton 1–1 Arsenal
  • 2024-08-31 Arsenal 1–1 Brighton
  • 2024-04-06 Brighton 0–3 Arsenal
League standing · 2026/27
Brighton#3 pos19 pts9 pl+17 GD
Arsenal#1 pos24 pts9 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Brighton scored2.67
Arsenal scored1.56
Brighton conceded0.78
Arsenal conceded0.56

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Brighton 2.25 xG from 17 shots, Arsenal 1.29 from 11. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Bukayo Saka 44' · 0.63 xGMatt O'Riley 89' · 0.58 xGYasin Ayari 39' · 0.31 xGKai Havertz 77' · 0.27 xGMalick Yalcouyé 89' · 0.23 xGYasin Ayari 7' · 0.10 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 50' · 0.09 xGKai Havertz 75' · 0.08 xGPascal Struijk 67' · 0.08 xGEzri Konsa Ngoyo 54' · 0.08 xGMartin Odegaard 44' · 0.07 xGPascal Groß 78' · 0.07 xGGeorginio Rutter 79' · 0.07 xGMartín Zubimendi 92' · 0.05 xGBukayo Saka 74' · 0.04 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 6' · 0.03 xGMartín Zubimendi 94' · 0.03 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 34' · 0.03 xGMaxim De Cuyper 79' · 0.02 xGFerdi Kadioglu 2' · 0.02 xGRiccardo Calafiori 19' · 0.02 xGRiccardo Calafiori 71' · 0.02 xGOlivier Boscagli 44' · 0.01 xGChema Andres 75' · 0.01 xGDeclan Rice 92' · 0.01 xGChema Andres 56' · 0.53 xG · goalCharalampos Kostoulas 44' · 0.05 xG · goalPascal Groß 30' · 0.03 xG · goal
Brighton (attacking right)Arsenal (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Brighton1732.25
Arsenal1101.29

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Brighton 0.57, Arsenal 0.72. At full time, Brighton led on xG, 2.25 to 1.29. The widest gap was 1.05 xG to Brighton, in the 89th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Brighton 30 minGoal - Brighton 44 minGoal - Brighton 56 min
Brighton 2.25 xGArsenal 1.29 xGdots = goals · 28 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Brighton v Arsenal?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Brighton v Arsenal was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.75 at Betfair).
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Arsenal?
In their last 6 meetings, Brighton won 0, Arsenal won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Brighton and Arsenal?
Recent form — Brighton 3W 1D 1L; Arsenal 5W 0D 0L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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