This Matchweek

BrightonAston Villa

Brighton v Aston Villa result

Full-time · Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa

Premier League · · Amex Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Brighton · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa — Brighton won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.91 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Brighton: 4.00 to 0.28 in expected goals, from 21 shots to 7, ahead on xG from the seventh minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Brighton beat Aston Villa 4–0 at Amex Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 23 August. It is Brighton’s first win over Aston Villa since 5 May 2024, after four meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Brighton led 4–0 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Aston Villa: an own goal by Victor Lindelöf (8’); Brighton: Maxim De Cuyper (18’, assisted by Georginio Rutter) and Jack Hinshelwood (30’, assisted by D. Gómez; 31’). João Gomes (40’) was sent off.

Discipline

P. Bankes showed five yellow cards and one red — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 15 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Brighton: Pascal Groß (10’) and Yasin Ayari (11’); Aston Villa: João Gomes (9’), John McGinn (33’) and Matthew Cash (90+5’).

What it changes

Brighton are first after this result (one league match played). Brighton have scored 24 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Brighton have conceded seven goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa are 20th after this result (one league match played). Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Brighton’s four-goal margin was the biggest of round 1, across 10 matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton) 10.7, Maxim De Cuyper (Brighton) 7.5 and Mats Wieffer (Brighton) 7.4 led the match.

Head-to-head

Aston Villa are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Brighton.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (366 of 543).

Next up

Brighton next host Brentford on 8 November 2026.

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Brighton: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa · Premier League
  • Venue: Amex Stadium · Brighton
  • Referee: P. Bankes
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Brighton 1 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 4 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Brighton 1W 1D 3L · Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L

Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 2.13
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.13 / 5.5
Corners
against 4.75 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.5 / 5.75
Shots on target
against 3.38 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.13 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.63 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.93 yellows
Referee · P. Bankes
21.33 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 15 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBrighton for / againstLineAston Villa for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5our book
2.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 4.75 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
15.25 for · 8.75 against n 8
19.5standard
13.63 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.5 for · 3.38 against n 8
8.5standard
5.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.25 for · 9 against n 8
21.5standard
11 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8

Referee: P. Bankes — 3.93 yellow cards a game, 0.2 red cards, 21.33 fouls over 15 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Brighton

Brighton Goalkeeper

Brighton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Verbruggen19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 890
2.54/4

Brighton Defensive

Brighton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Vušković19090 min22 /9022 /9000 /901212 /9011 /9011 /90
M. Wieffer19090 min33 /9033 /9000 /9066 /9022 /9000 /90
O. Boscagli19090 min00 /9011 /9000 /9011 /9022 /9000 /90
F. Kadıoğlu18787 min11 /9000 /9000 /9022.1 /9011 /9011 /90
P. Groß19090 min00 /9000 /9000 /9022 /9011 /9000 /90
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Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Wieffer n 875.4
1.25/2
1.24/2
I. Maatsen
P. Groß n 890
15/2
0.11/0
—
Y. Ayari n 878.8
0.95/1
1.46/3
—
O. Boscagli n 873.4
0.52/1
1.14/3
M. Cash
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
—
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Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Wieffer n 875.4
2.25/5
Y. Ayari n 878.8
1.95/4
O. Boscagli n 873.4
1.45/4
P. Groß n 890
1.35/3
F. Kadıoğlu n 889.6
0.95/1
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Brighton Attacking

Brighton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
G. Rutter17878 min00 /9000 /9011.2 /9011.2 /9033.5 /9022.3 /90
C. Kostoulas12222 min00 /9000 /9028.2 /9000 /9028.2 /9014.1 /90
P. Groß19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9066 /9000 /90
Y. Ayari19090 min00 /9000 /9044 /9011 /9011 /9022 /90
I. Osman17777 min00 /9000 /9022.3 /9011.2 /9033.5 /9022.3 /90
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Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Ayari n 878.8
1.13/3
0.43/0
P. Groß n 890
0.85/1
0.85/1
M. Wieffer n 875.4
0.73/2
0.31/1
O. Boscagli n 873.4
0.21/0
00/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
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Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Y. Ayari n 878.8
0.32/0
0.43/0
P. Groß n 890
00/0
0.32/0
M. Wieffer n 875.4
0.31/1
00/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
O. Boscagli n 873.4
00/0
00/0
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Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Bizot19696 min43.8 /9021.9 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Bizot n 879.6
3.86/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
I. Maatsen19696 min43.8 /9000 /9000 /90109.4 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Cash19696 min21.9 /9000 /9000 /9021.9 /9000 /9000 /90
V. Lindelöf19696 min00 /9010.9 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
Pau Torres17979 min22.3 /9000 /9000 /9033.4 /9011.1 /9011.1 /90
E. Buendía19696 min21.9 /9000 /9000 /9065.6 /9010.9 /9000 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
George Hemmings n 352.7
2.83/2
1.72/1
—
E. Buendía n 875.9
1.87/3
37/6
—
M. Cash n 883.9
0.75/0
0.84/2
O. Boscagli
I. Maatsen n 877.5
0.74/1
1.25/2
M. Wieffer
V. Lindelöf n 876
0.42/1
0.32/0
—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Buendía n 875.9
2.77/4
M. Cash n 883.9
1.95/4
I. Maatsen n 877.5
1.94/4
George Hemmings n 352.7
1.72/1
V. Lindelöf n 876
0.64/0
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Brian Madjo17272 min11.3 /9000 /9056.3 /9011.3 /9022.5 /9000 /90
Alysson Edward12323 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.9 /90
E. Buendía19696 min00 /9000 /9021.9 /9000 /9010.9 /9000 /90
George Hemmings19696 min00 /9000 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9000 /90
J. McGinn17373 min00 /9011.2 /9011.2 /9011.2 /9044.9 /9011.2 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Buendía n 875.9
1.97/4
0.94/2
George Hemmings n 352.7
0.61/0
0.61/0
V. Lindelöf n 876
0.42/1
00/0
I. Maatsen n 877.5
0.32/0
0.11/0
M. Cash n 883.9
0.11/0
00/0
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Buendía n 875.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
M. Cash n 883.9
00/0
0.11/0
I. Maatsen n 877.5
00/0
0.11/0
M. Bizot n 879.6
00/0
00/0
V. Lindelöf n 876
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BrightonAston Villa
73%Possession27%
3.77Expected goals (xG)0.29
21Shots6
6Shots on target0
12Shots off target6
3Blocked shots0
15Shots inside the box2
5Corners2
6Offsides2
12Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
0Saves3
647Passes242
93%Pass accuracy76%

Brighton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Verbruggen9000000006.9
L. Vušković9000200007.9
L. Dunk9000000107.6
O. Boscagli9000000107.6
P. Groß90000043Y7.2
G. Rutter9001201207.7
D. Gómez8601322308.2
M. Wieffer7800102407.3
M. De Cuyper7810314308.3
Y. Ayari64001010Y6.2
J. Hinshelwood6420221209
Costinha sub2600210106.7
C. Kostoulas sub2600200106.5
I. Osman sub1200001006.3
Z. Yohanna sub1200000006.7
M. Yalcouyé sub900000006.7

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Bizot9000000006.5
M. Cash90000002Y6.2
V. Lindelöf9000000005
B. Kamara9000000206.3
George Hemmings9000001306.5
E. Buendía8600301106.7
I. Maatsen8200100205.5
J. McGinn82001001Y6.3
Pau Torres7400000004.9
R. Barkley7400102006.3
João Gomes40000014RY5
T. Mings sub1600000106.9
L. Bogarde sub1600000006.6
A. Garnacho sub900000006.2
Matteo Ruggeri sub800000206.9
Alysson Edward sub800000106.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Brighton v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BrightonLWLLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Aston VillaDWWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Brighton 1 · 1 draw · Aston Villa 4 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2026-02-11 Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton
  • 2025-12-03 Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa
  • 2025-04-02 Brighton 0–3 Aston Villa
  • 2024-12-30 Aston Villa 2–2 Brighton
  • 2024-05-05 Brighton 1–0 Aston Villa
  • 2023-09-30 Aston Villa 6–1 Brighton
League standing · 2026/27
Brighton#3 pos19 pts9 pl+17 GD
Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Brighton scored2.67
Aston Villa scored1.11
Brighton conceded0.78
Aston Villa conceded1.44

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Brighton 4.00 xG from 21 shots, Aston Villa 0.28 from 7. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Luka Vuskovic 53' · 0.35 xGMaxim De Cuyper 7' · 0.30 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 93' · 0.28 xGDiego Gómez 56' · 0.11 xGJack Hinshelwood 57' · 0.11 xGDiego Gómez 44' · 0.10 xGRoss Barkley 67' · 0.10 xGMaxim De Cuyper 43' · 0.09 xGMats Wieffer 41' · 0.08 xGMaxim De Cuyper 42' · 0.08 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 76' · 0.05 xGGeorginio Rutter 60' · 0.05 xGEmiliano Buendía 6' · 0.05 xGYasin Ayari 50' · 0.05 xGEmiliano Buendía 4' · 0.05 xGYasin Ayari 41' · 0.04 xGJohn McGinn 16' · 0.03 xGCostinha 89' · 0.03 xGIan Maatsen 51' · 0.03 xGCostinha 64' · 0.02 xGDiego Gómez 70' · 0.02 xGEmiliano Buendía 3' · 0.02 xGGeorginio Rutter 23' · 0.02 xGLuka Vuskovic 48' · 0.01 xGVictor Lindelöf 7' · 0.00 xGMaxim De Cuyper 17' · 0.91 xG · goalJack Hinshelwood 29' · 0.80 xG · goalJack Hinshelwood 30' · 0.50 xG · goal
Brighton (attacking right)Aston Villa (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Brighton2134.00
Aston Villa700.28

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Brighton led on xG, 2.91 to 0.15. At full time, Brighton led on xG, 4.00 to 0.28. The widest gap was 3.72 xG to Brighton, in the 93rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.02.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Brighton 17 minGoal - Brighton 29 minGoal - Brighton 30 min
Brighton 4.00 xGAston Villa 0.28 xGdots = goals · 28 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Brighton v Aston Villa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Brighton v Aston Villa was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.91 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Aston Villa?
In their last 6 meetings, Brighton won 1, Aston Villa won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Brighton and Aston Villa?
Recent form — Brighton 1W 1D 3L; Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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