Chelsea v Aston Villa prediction

Premier League · Sat, 19 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT · Stamford Bridge

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Chelsea · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Chelsea v Aston Villa, Premier League on Sat, 19 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Chelsea host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 19 December (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Aston Villa are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Chelsea’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Chelsea’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Chelsea have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 2.88 and conceding 1.50. Chelsea have scored 19 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Chelsea have conceded 16 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Aston Villa’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Aston Villa have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.88. Aston Villa have scored 14 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Aston Villa have conceded 17 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Chelsea (fifth) and Aston Villa (10th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Aston Villa the stronger side, 73 rating points above Chelsea (Aston Villa 1677, Chelsea 1604, after at least 276 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 4 March 2026, finished Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea.

Team news

Predicted Chelsea XI (4-2-3-1): M. Penders, L. Colwill, W. Fofana, J. Acheampong, M. Lacroix, M. Caicedo, J. Henderson, M. Rogers, C. Palmer, R. Lavia, D. Welbeck — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, João Pedro (5.9 per match over seven appearances, five goals and three assists) and Morgan Rogers (5.6 per match over 13 appearances, six goals and four assists) have been Chelsea’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Chelsea (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), João Pedro averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 638 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last nine appearances. Morgan Rogers averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1817 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Aston Villa XI (4-2-3-1): Z. Suzuki, V. Lindelöf, P. Torres, I. Maatsen, M. Cash, B. Kamara, J. McGinn, J. Manzambi, L. Goretzka, J. Gomes, N. Jackson — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nicolas Jackson (4.9 per match over 14 appearances, nine goals and one assist) and Johan Manzambi (4.9 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and three assists) have been Aston Villa’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Aston Villa (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nicolas Jackson averages 2.7 shots per 90 over 1413 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Johan Manzambi averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 1295 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 19 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT · Premier League · Stamford Bridge
Head-to-head (last 6): Chelsea 3 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 2 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Chelsea 2W 1D 2L · Aston Villa 1W 2D 2L

Chelsea v Aston Villa (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 2.13

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.63 · 0 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.29 / 5.5

Corners

against 5 / 6.13 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.71 / 5.13

Shots on target

against 4.43 / 5.5 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.14 / 1.75

Cards

against 3.86 / 2.5 · 4 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 8 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 8 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Chelsea for / against	Line	Aston Villa for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.29 for · 5 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5.5 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.57 for · 11.14 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	14.75 for · 16.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.71 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	5.13 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.43 for · 13.71 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	11.38 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.14 for · 3.86 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.75 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5

Chelsea

Chelsea Goalkeeper

Chelsea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
E. Martínez	6	88525 min	254.3 /90	111.9 /90
M. Penders	6	78465 min	122.3 /90	20.4 /90
Robert Sánchez	1	9090 min	44 /90	22 /90

Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 6	87.5	4.3 6/6
M. Penders n 6	77.5	2.3 3/3
Robert Sánchez n 8	87	3.1 6/5

Chelsea Defensive

Chelsea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Levi Colwill	10	82823 min	101.1 /90	60.7 /90	40.4 /90	434.7 /90	91 /90	20.2 /90
Joshua Kofi Acheampong	10	76761 min	273.2 /90	50.6 /90	30.4 /90	455.3 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
Pep Chavarría	10	57573 min	101.6 /90	91.4 /90	00 /90	193 /90	60.9 /90	00 /90
M. Lacroix	9	90810 min	151.7 /90	91 /90	50.6 /90	384.2 /90	60.7 /90	10.1 /90
J. Hato	7	62437 min	122.5 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90	234.7 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90
See more players · Pro Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	1.1 5/3	1.9 6/4	—
M. Rogers n 8	83.6	1.1 6/2	2 7/5	—
Pedro Neto n 8	78.4	1.3 5/3	0.6 4/0	—
Levi Colwill n 8	82.6	1.1 5/2	0.5 3/1	—
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	0.8 5/0	0.3 2/0	—
See more players · Pro

Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	1.3 6/3
M. Rogers n 8	83.6	1.7 7/4
Pedro Neto n 8	78.4	2 7/4
Levi Colwill n 8	82.6	1 5/1
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	2.9 7/5
See more players · Pro

Chelsea Attacking

Chelsea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
João Pedro	7	77538 min	50.8 /90	30.5 /90	142.3 /90	91.5 /90	71.2 /90	71.2 /90
Estêvão	5	55275 min	00 /90	00 /90	92.9 /90	31 /90	103.3 /90	103.3 /90
D. Welbeck	4	66262 min	31 /90	00 /90	82.7 /90	41.4 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
J. Bynoe-Gittens	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	24 /90	24 /90	12 /90	12 /90
C. Palmer	12	851023 min	50.4 /90	30.3 /90	332.9 /90	151.3 /90	292.6 /90	181.6 /90
See more players · Pro

Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	2.4 6/4	0.9 5/2
M. Rogers n 8	83.6	1.2 6/3	0.8 5/1
Pedro Neto n 8	78.4	1.9 8/3	1.7 8/3
Levi Colwill n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	0.3 1/1	0.2 1/0
See more players · Pro

Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
M. Rogers n 8	83.6	0.4 3/0	0.4 1/1
Pedro Neto n 8	78.4	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
Levi Colwill n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Z. Suzuki	14	871215 min	523.9 /90	120.9 /90	00 /90
M. Bizot	4	80321 min	133.6 /90	61.7 /90	00 /90

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	3.8 7/6
M. Bizot n 8	79.6	3.8 7/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
V. Lindelöf	15	901356 min	40.3 /90	120.8 /90	30.2 /90	181.2 /90	40.3 /90	00 /90
M. Cash	12	80954 min	343.2 /90	40.4 /90	60.6 /90	504.7 /90	191.8 /90	50.5 /90
I. Maatsen	11	88966 min	252.3 /90	141.3 /90	20.2 /90	494.6 /90	90.8 /90	30.3 /90
Pau Torres	11	82898 min	70.7 /90	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	212.1 /90	50.5 /90	10.1 /90
T. Mings	10	73728 min	60.7 /90	40.5 /90	20.2 /90	253.1 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. McGinn n 8	68.3	1 5/1	1.8 6/4	—
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0	—
E. Buendía n 8	62	1.6 6/3	1.8 6/2	—
R. Barkley n 8	34.6	2.6 5/2	1.3 2/1	—
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. McGinn n 8	68.3	2 5/4
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0.4 3/0
E. Buendía n 8	62	4.4 5/5
R. Barkley n 8	34.6	0 0/0
B. Kamara n 8	85.8	3.3 7/6
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
N. Jackson	14	751054 min	90.8 /90	10.1 /90	332.8 /90	191.6 /90	161.4 /90	272.3 /90
Alysson Edward	12	41489 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	112 /90	40.7 /90	71.3 /90	122.2 /90
I. Mbaye	11	40442 min	00 /90	40.8 /90	142.9 /90	61.2 /90	173.5 /90	91.8 /90
T. Abraham	6	32192 min	20.9 /90	00 /90	31.4 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	20.9 /90
A. Garnacho	3	2265 min	00 /90	00 /90	45.5 /90	22.8 /90	11.4 /90	11.4 /90
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. McGinn n 8	68.3	0.8 4/1	0.3 2/0
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Buendía n 8	62	3.1 6/4	0.9 2/2
R. Barkley n 8	34.6	2.6 5/2	1.6 4/1
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. McGinn n 8	68.3	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
V. Lindelöf n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Buendía n 8	62	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
R. Barkley n 8	34.6	1 2/1	0.3 1/0
Z. Suzuki n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Chelsea v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ChelseaWLDWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Aston VillaWLDLD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Chelsea 3 · 1 draw · Aston Villa 2 · 3.67 goals/game

2026-03-04 Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea
2025-12-27 Chelsea 1–2 Aston Villa
2025-02-22 Aston Villa 2–1 Chelsea
2024-12-01 Chelsea 3–0 Aston Villa
2024-04-27 Aston Villa 2–2 Chelsea
2024-02-07 Aston Villa 1–3 Chelsea

League standing · 2026/27

Chelsea#5 pos16 pts10 pl+3 GD

Aston Villa#10 pos13 pts10 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

Chelsea scored1.9

Aston Villa scored1.4

Chelsea conceded1.6

Aston Villa conceded1.7

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock every market for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)

Pro

Win probability & value

Pro

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Aston Villa?: In their last 6 meetings, Chelsea won 3, Aston Villa won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Aston Villa?: Recent form — Chelsea 2W 1D 2L; Aston Villa 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.