Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest result

Full-time · Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest

Premier League · Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:00 BST · Selhurst Park

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Crystal Palace · Nottingham Forest · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.33 at Bet365

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.2% of 4220 landed (95% range 75.9–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1 at Selhurst Park in the Premier League on Sunday 11 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Nottingham Forest out-shot Crystal Palace 24 to 13 and created the better chances, 2.98 xG to 2.42 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

Crystal Palace led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Nottingham Forest: Dan Ndoye (3’); Crystal Palace: Daichi Kamada (41’, assisted by Quinten Timber), J. Lerma (45’, assisted by Adam Wharton) and Yeremy Pino (59’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with J. Lerma’s goal on 45 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Crystal Palace: J. Lerma (16’) and Yeremy Pino (59’); Nottingham Forest: O. Aina (73’) and Murillo (90+4’).

What it changes

Crystal Palace move up from 15th to 12th (six league matches played). Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last three matches.

Nottingham Forest move down from 12th to 14th (six league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Dan Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) 7.3, Tyrick Mitchell (Crystal Palace) 6.2 and Daichi Kamada (Crystal Palace) 6.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.2% of the time in the last 90 days (3258 of 4220).

Next up

Crystal Palace next travel to Lyon on 15 October 2026.

Nottingham Forest next host Arsenal on 18 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Crystal Palace: Lyon v Crystal Palace, Thursday 15 October — the preview. Next for Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Sunday 18 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest · Premier League
Venue: Selhurst Park · London
Referee: Peter Bankes
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Crystal Palace 0 · draws 5 · Nottingham Forest 1 · 1.5 goals/game
Recent form: Crystal Palace 3W 1D 1L · Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 2L

Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 12 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 0.88

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

2.88 / 4

Corners

against 4.5 / 4.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4 / 3.63

Shots on target

against 4.88 / 4 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.25 / 2.38

Cards

against 2.13 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Crystal Palace for / against	Line	Nottingham Forest for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	0.88 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	2.88 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11 for · 15.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.5 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.63 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.63 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13.25 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Muñoz n 8	61.4	2.2 6/2	0.7 2/1	X. Schlager
H. Ahanor n 8	65.8	2.1 5/4	1.5 5/1	—
W. Hughes n 8	43.3	2.1 6/2	2.1 5/3	—
Q. Timber n 8	52.6	1.9 5/4	1.9 6/3	X. Schlager
J. Mateta n 8	32.1	1.8 4/1	0 0/0	—

Crystal Palace — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Mateta n 8	32.1	3.5 6/3	1.8 4/1
J. Strand Larsen n 8	50.6	2.7 5/3	1.6 4/3
I. Sarr n 8	65.6	2.4 5/4	1 3/2
E. Nketiah n 8	43.3	2.1 6/2	1 4/0
Yeremy Pino n 8	60.9	1.8 5/3	0.7 3/1

Crystal Palace — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Strand Larsen n 8	50.6	0.9 3/1	0.2 1/0
I. Sarr n 8	65.6	0.7 3/1	0.2 1/0
D. Kamada n 8	68.5	0.2 1/0	0.5 2/1
J. Mateta n 8	32.1	0.7 2/0	0 0/0
E. Nketiah n 8	43.3	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0

Crystal Palace — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Q. Timber n 8	52.6	4.1 6/6
Óscar Mingueza n 8	35.4	3.5 6/1
A. Khalaili n 8	81.3	3.3 8/7
W. Hughes n 8	43.3	2.6 3/2
T. Mitchell n 8	80.8	2.2 6/6

Crystal Palace — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
W. Benítez n 8	93.8	3.5 8/5
D. Henderson n 8	82.1	3.3 5/5

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Muñoz n 8	61.4	2.2 6/2	0.7 2/1	—
L. Delap n 8	55.4	1.8 5/3	1 4/1	—
Murillo n 8	65.3	1.7 4/2	0.3 2/0	—
X. Schlager n 8	90	1.5 7/4	1.3 5/3	Q. Timber
Igor Jesus n 8	61.3	1.5 5/1	2 7/2	—

Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Ndoye n 8	74.1	3.3 7/7	1.8 6/3
L. Delap n 8	55.4	2.4 6/2	0.2 1/0
T. Awoniyi n 8	53.1	2.1 7/2	0.8 3/1
Igor Jesus n 8	61.3	1.3 6/1	1.1 6/0
C. Wood n 8	52.8	1.3 4/1	0.6 2/1

Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Ndoye n 8	74.1	0.5 3/0	0.5 2/1
C. Hudson-Odoi n 8	47.5	0 0/0	0.7 3/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 8	51.4	0.2 1/0	0.4 2/0
Morato n 8	65.3	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
T. Awoniyi n 8	53.1	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
I. Sangaré n 8	50.4	3.6 5/4
L. Netz n 8	44.1	3.3 5/2
X. Schlager n 8	90	3.2 8/6
N. Domínguez n 8	57	3 7/6
N. Williams n 8	90	2.8 8/6

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Sels n 8	90	2.8 7/4

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Crystal Palace		Nottingham Forest
43%	Possession	57%
2.42	Expected goals (xG)	2.98
13	Shots	24
7	Shots on target	6
4	Shots off target	10
2	Blocked shots	8
11	Shots inside the box	16
5	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
11	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Saves	4
386	Passes	498

Crystal Palace player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
C. Richards	90	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7
J. Canvot	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7
A. Khalaili	90	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	6.1
Q. Timber	90	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	6.5
A. Wharton	90	0	1	0	0	3	2	0	7.7
T. Mitchell	90	0	0	1	1	0	7	0	6.3
W. Benítez	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.8
D. Kamada	89	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	7.5
Yeremy Pino	83	1	0	1	1	3	2	Y	8.1
J. Strand Larsen	83	0	0	3	2	0	1	0	6.3
J. Lerma	72	1	0	3	2	0	1	Y	6.6
H. Ahanor	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
I. Sarr	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
E. Nketiah	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
D. McNeil	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Nottingham Forest player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Morgan Gibbs-White	90	0	2	0	3	2	0	6.6
N. Williams	90	0	3	0	1	1	0	7
J. McAtee	90	0	1	0	2	0	0	5.8
D. Muñoz	90	0	2	0	2	3	0	6.1
Murillo	90	0	4	2	0	3	Y	6.3
O. Diomande	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.6
M. Sels	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
O. Aina	83	0	1	0	0	2	Y	5.7
L. Delap	72	0	2	1	1	0	0	6
D. Ndoye	72	1	4	2	1	0	0	6.7
X. Schlager	66	0	3	0	1	0	0	6.5
I. Sangaré	24	0	0	0	1	0	0	5.9
C. Wood	18	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.2
C. Hudson-Odoi	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
A. Kalimuendo	7	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.4

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Crystal PalaceWWLWD

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

Nottingham ForestLDDWL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Crystal Palace 0 · 5 draws · Nottingham Forest 1 · 1.5 goals/game

2026-02-01 Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace
2025-08-24 Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest
2025-05-05 Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest
2024-10-21 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace
2024-03-30 Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace
2023-10-07 Crystal Palace 0–0 Nottingham Forest

League standing · 2026/27

Crystal Palace#12 pos7 pts6 pl-3 GD

Nottingham Forest#14 pos5 pts6 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

Crystal Palace scored1.5

Nottingham Forest scored0.83

Crystal Palace conceded2

Nottingham Forest conceded1.33

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest was Home or Away (best price 1.33 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?: In their last 6 meetings, Crystal Palace won 0, Nottingham Forest won 1 and there were 5 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?: Recent form — Crystal Palace 3W 1D 1L; Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 12 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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