Manchester City v Brighton prediction

Premier League · Sat, 31 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT · Etihad Stadium

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 05:05 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Manchester City · Brighton · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Manchester City v Brighton, Premier League on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.43 at Betvictor

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.1% of 586 landed (95% range 63.2–70.7%); it had given them 76.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 479 of 729 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Manchester City host Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October (kick-off 15:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Brighton have scored 23 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Manchester City have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions. Brighton are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Manchester City.

Form and the table

12 of Manchester City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in nine of Manchester City’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Manchester City have six wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 2.11 points per game, scoring 2.89 and conceding 1.67. Manchester City have scored 20 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Manchester City have conceded nine goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

10 of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in four of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Brighton have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 1.25. Brighton have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Brighton are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Manchester City (first) and Brighton (third) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Manchester City the stronger side, 127 rating points above Brighton (Manchester City 1912, Brighton 1785, after at least 350 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 28 October 2026, finished Manchester City 2–2 Brighton.

Team news

Predicted Manchester City XI (4-2-3-1): G. Donnarumma, M. Guéhi, R. Dias, A. Khusanov, J. Gvardiol, R. Cherki, E. Fernández, E. Anderson, P. Foden, I. Ndiaye, E. Haaland — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Erling Haaland (6.1 per match over 11 appearances, 13 goals) and R. Cherki (5.1 per match over 13 appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Manchester City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Manchester City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Erling Haaland averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 1880 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. R. Cherki averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 1332 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Brighton XI (4-2-3-1): B. Verbruggen, O. Boscagli, Costinha, L. Vušković, M. Svoboda, P. Groß, Y. Ayari, D. Gómez, M. Yalcouyé, J. Hinshelwood, G. Rutter — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Pascal Groß (4.8 per match over 14 appearances, four goals and four assists) and Charalampos Kostoulas (4.7 per match over 11 appearances, five goals and three assists) have been Brighton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Brighton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pascal Groß averages 3.8 key passes per 90 over 1274 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Charalampos Kostoulas averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 871 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT · Premier League · Etihad Stadium
Referee: Craig Pawson
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Manchester City 1 · draws 3 · Brighton 2 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Manchester City 2W 1D 2L · Brighton 2W 2D 1L

Manchester City v Brighton (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3.25 / 2.38

Goals

against 1.75 / 0.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

6 / 6.14

Corners

against 3.57 / 4 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

6.43 / 5.29

Shots on target

against 4.71 / 2.71 · 4 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.29 / 2.14

Cards

against 2 / 1 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Manchester City for / against	Line	Brighton for / against
Goals scored	3.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	2.38 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.14 for · 4 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	17.57 for · 10.86 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	20.43 for · 9.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	6.43 for · 4.71 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	5.29 for · 2.71 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 13.86 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.14 for · 8.86 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.29 for · 2 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2.14 for · 1 against n 7 Last 5

Manchester City

Manchester City Goalkeeper

Manchester City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Donnarumma	12	901080 min	312.6 /90	121 /90	00 /90

Manchester City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	2.8 5/4

Manchester City Defensive

Manchester City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Rúben Dias	12	861028 min	90.8 /90	80.7 /90	30.3 /90	413.6 /90	181.6 /90	00 /90
J. Gvardiol	12	73878 min	252.6 /90	141.4 /90	30.3 /90	666.8 /90	131.3 /90	50.5 /90
M. Guéhi	11	81892 min	70.7 /90	90.9 /90	40.4 /90	404 /90	101 /90	10.1 /90
A. Khusanov	9	85761 min	293.4 /90	161.9 /90	30.4 /90	485.7 /90	70.8 /90	10.1 /90
Matheus Nunes	7	73514 min	81.4 /90	30.5 /90	30.5 /90	234 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90
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Manchester City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	2.2 6/6	0 0/0	—
J. Gvardiol n 8	66.6	1.4 6/2	1.9 5/3	—
R. Cherki n 8	63.4	0.5 2/1	1.1 4/1	—
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	1.3 4/3	0.9 6/1	—
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Manchester City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	0.9 4/2
J. Gvardiol n 8	66.6	2.7 5/3
R. Cherki n 8	63.4	1.1 4/1
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0
M. Guéhi n 8	84.4	0.5 3/1
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Manchester City Attacking

Manchester City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
E. Haaland	11	86943 min	131.2 /90	00 /90	403.8 /90	232.2 /90	70.7 /90	60.6 /90
R. McAidoo	3	3194 min	11 /90	11 /90	32.9 /90	21.9 /90	21.9 /90	43.8 /90
F. Samba	2	76152 min	21.2 /90	00 /90	42.4 /90	21.2 /90	21.2 /90	00 /90
Omar Marmoush	1	3737 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90
R. Cherki	12	59712 min	60.8 /90	20.3 /90	172.1 /90	111.4 /90	253.2 /90	151.9 /90
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Manchester City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	0.7 3/1	0.3 1/1
J. Gvardiol n 8	66.6	1.2 3/2	0.7 2/2
R. Cherki n 8	63.4	2.1 6/3	1.2 6/1
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	3.7 8/8	2.2 8/5
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Manchester City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Gvardiol n 8	66.6	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
R. Cherki n 8	63.4	0.7 4/0	0 0/0
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	1.4 8/3	0 0/0
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Brighton

Brighton Goalkeeper

Brighton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
B. Verbruggen	12	901080 min	252.1 /90	70.6 /90	00 /90
Jason Steele	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	2.9 6/5
Jason Steele n 8	90	3.6 6/4

Brighton Defensive

Brighton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Vušković	13	801045 min	161.4 /90	141.2 /90	80.7 /90	827.1 /90	141.2 /90	10.1 /90
O. Boscagli	13	77998 min	80.7 /90	121.1 /90	20.2 /90	343.1 /90	141.3 /90	30.3 /90
L. Dunk	9	73659 min	71 /90	71 /90	50.7 /90	364.9 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90
F. Kadıoğlu	8	77617 min	40.6 /90	50.7 /90	20.3 /90	142 /90	30.4 /90	20.3 /90
Costinha	7	64447 min	61.2 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90	336.6 /90	61.2 /90	20.4 /90
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Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
P. Groß n 8	80.8	1.1 4/2	0.4 2/1	—
L. Vušković n 8	74.4	1.4 4/2	1.2 6/1	—
O. Boscagli n 8	68.6	1 4/1	0.7 4/0	—
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Y. Ayari n 8	61.9	0.5 3/0	1.5 5/2	—
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Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
P. Groß n 8	80.8	1.5 4/3
L. Vušković n 8	74.4	1.5 7/3
O. Boscagli n 8	68.6	1 4/2
Y. Ayari n 8	61.9	1.3 5/2
D. Gómez n 8	80.3	2.4 6/4
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Brighton Attacking

Brighton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Kostoulas	11	70771 min	50.6 /90	30.4 /90	293.4 /90	111.3 /90	101.2 /90	131.5 /90
G. Rutter	6	64382 min	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	112.6 /90	71.6 /90	71.6 /90	71.6 /90
I. Osman	5	55274 min	00 /90	20.7 /90	93 /90	10.3 /90	72.3 /90	41.3 /90
P. David	2	2855 min	00 /90	00 /90	34.9 /90	00 /90	11.6 /90	11.6 /90
Z. Yohanna	1	2424 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	13.8 /90	00 /90
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Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
P. Groß n 8	80.8	1.4 7/2	0.6 4/0
L. Vušković n 8	74.4	1.8 7/4	0.2 1/0
O. Boscagli n 8	68.6	0.8 4/1	0.2 1/0
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Y. Ayari n 8	61.9	2.5 7/5	0.7 2/2
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Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
P. Groß n 8	80.8	0.4 3/0	0.6 3/1
L. Vušković n 8	74.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
O. Boscagli n 8	68.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Y. Ayari n 8	61.9	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Manchester City v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Manchester CityLWWLD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.6 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

BrightonWWDLD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Manchester City 1 · 3 draws · Brighton 2 · 3.33 goals/game

2026-10-28 Manchester City 2–2 Brighton
2026-01-07 Manchester City 1–1 Brighton
2025-08-31 Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
2025-03-15 Manchester City 2–2 Brighton
2024-11-09 Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
2024-04-25 Brighton 0–4 Manchester City

League standing · 2026/27

Manchester City#1 pos21 pts8 pl+11 GD

Brighton#3 pos16 pts8 pl+16 GD

Goals per game

Manchester City scored2.5

Brighton scored2.88

Manchester City conceded1.13

Brighton conceded0.88

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Manchester City v Brighton?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Manchester City v Brighton is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.43 at Betvictor).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Brighton?: In their last 6 meetings, Manchester City won 1, Brighton won 2 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Manchester City and Brighton?: Recent form — Manchester City 2W 1D 2L; Brighton 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 05:05 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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