NewcastleBrighton

Newcastle v Brighton result

Full-time · Newcastle 3–1 Brighton

Premier League · · St. James' Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Newcastle · Brighton · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Newcastle 3–1 Brighton — Newcastle won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 577 of 895 times (64.5%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Newcastle: 3.13 to 1.88 in expected goals, from 13 shots to 13, ahead on xG from the 11th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Newcastle beat Brighton 3–1 at St. James' Park in the Premier League on Saturday 2 May. Brighton have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Newcastle led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Newcastle: William Osula (12’, assisted by Jacob Murphy), D. Burn (24’, assisted by Bruno Guimarães) and Harvey Barnes (90’, assisted by Yoane Wissa); Brighton: Jack Hinshelwood (61’, assisted by Daniel Welbeck).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jack Hinshelwood’s goal on 61 minutes.

Discipline

C. Kavanagh showed six yellow cards — against 4.5 yellows a game across the last 23 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Newcastle: D. Burn (53’), Sandro Tonali (85’) and Yoane Wissa (87’); Brighton: Joël Veltman (22’), K. Mitoma (39’) and Jan van Hecke (90+2’).

What it changes

Newcastle move up from 14th to 13th (35 league matches played).

Brighton move down from sixth to seventh (35 league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, D. Burn (Newcastle) 5.3, Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) 5.0 and Jacob Murphy (Newcastle) 5.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

Brighton are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Newcastle, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Newcastle next host Arsenal on 21 November 2026.

Brighton next host Brentford on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Newcastle: Newcastle v Arsenal, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Brighton: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Newcastle 3–1 Brighton · Premier League
  • Venue: St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Referee: C. Kavanagh
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Newcastle 0 · draws 2 · Brighton 4 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Newcastle 0W 0D 5L · Brighton 4W 1D 0L

Newcastle 3–1 Brighton (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.75
Goals
against 2.25 / 0.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4 / 4
Corners
against 5.5 / 6 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 5.75
Shots on target
against 5.63 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 2.38
Cards
against 2 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.52 yellows
Referee · C. Kavanagh
22.78 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 23 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNewcastle for / againstLineBrighton for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 2.25 against n 8
3our book
1.75 for · 0.63 against n 8
Corners won
4 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
4 for · 6 against n 8
Shots
11.25 for · 15.13 against n 8
19.5standard
12.75 for · 11 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 5.63 against n 8
8.5standard
5.75 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.25 for · 13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.88 for · 9.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: C. Kavanagh — 4.52 yellow cards a game, 0.17 red cards, 22.78 fouls over 23 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Newcastle

Newcastle Goalkeeper

Newcastle — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Pope32902867 min1023.2 /90411.3 /9010 /90
A. Ramsdale20901807 min582.9 /90331.6 /9010 /90
J. Trafford19090 min44 /9011 /9000 /90
Newcastle — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Pope n 890
36/5
A. Ramsdale n 890
3.46/6

Newcastle Defensive

Newcastle — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Thiaw47874069 min561.2 /90481.1 /90471 /902245 /90360.8 /9090.2 /90
D. Burn37833076 min531.6 /90310.9 /90240.7 /902015.9 /90511.5 /90120.4 /90
Lewis Hall37762828 min742.4 /90381.2 /90190.6 /902136.8 /90180.6 /9030.1 /90
K. Trippier32742381 min491.9 /90150.6 /9030.1 /901043.9 /90291.1 /9050.2 /90
S. Botman28812262 min210.8 /90241 /90251 /901244.9 /90120.5 /9020.1 /90
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Newcastle — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Barnes n 871
15/1
1.67/3
—
M. Thiaw n 883.3
1.25/3
0.43/0
F. Kadıoğlu
S. Tonali n 884.9
1.37/2
1.25/3
—
N. Woltemade n 855.1
1.24/1
14/1
—
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.21/0
2.77/4
—
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Newcastle — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
H. Barnes n 871
0.53/0
M. Thiaw n 883.3
1.56/4
S. Tonali n 884.9
1.26/3
N. Woltemade n 855.1
2.25/4
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.83/1
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Newcastle Attacking

Newcastle — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
H. Barnes50613026 min120.4 /9050.1 /90672 /90391.2 /90381.1 /90200.6 /90
N. Woltemade42632634 min100.3 /9030.1 /90341.2 /90180.6 /90291 /90210.7 /90
A. Gordon41682769 min160.5 /9040.1 /90612 /90371.2 /90441.4 /90521.7 /90
A. Elanga36541953 min20.1 /9010 /90211 /90110.5 /90261.2 /90211 /90
Y. Wissa1839706 min30.4 /9010.1 /90182.3 /9081 /9030.4 /9020.3 /90
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Newcastle — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Barnes n 871
1.45/3
0.63/1
M. Thiaw n 883.3
0.43/0
0.11/0
S. Tonali n 884.9
0.96/1
0.43/0
N. Woltemade n 855.1
0.62/1
0.41/1
A. Gordon n 867.9
1.85/3
1.24/2
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Newcastle — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Barnes n 871
0.32/0
0.21/0
M. Thiaw n 883.3
00/0
00/0
S. Tonali n 884.9
00/0
0.32/0
N. Woltemade n 855.1
00/0
0.21/0
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.53/0
00/0
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Brighton

Brighton Goalkeeper

Brighton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Verbruggen34903060 min952.8 /90391.1 /9010 /90
Jason Steele590450 min224.4 /9061.2 /9000 /90
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 890
2.96/6
Jason Steele n 890
3.86/5

Brighton Defensive

Brighton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Kadıoğlu38833156 min631.8 /90270.8 /9070.2 /901464.2 /90210.6 /9070.2 /90
J. van Hecke35873038 min501.5 /90371.1 /90310.9 /901955.8 /90250.7 /9090.3 /90
L. Dunk30892655 min331.1 /90291 /90280.9 /901143.9 /90150.5 /90110.4 /90
M. Wieffer24761818 min643.2 /90251.2 /9070.3 /901366.7 /90301.5 /9080.4 /90
M. De Cuyper21581214 min171.3 /90100.7 /9010.1 /90453.3 /90181.3 /9020.1 /90
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Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
0.43/0
1.46/4
M. Thiaw
J. van Hecke n 890
0.53/1
0.85/1
—
D. Gómez n 873.4
3.48/8
0.21/0
—
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
D. Welbeck n 875.5
0.32/0
0.32/0
—
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Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
1.45/3
J. van Hecke n 890
27/5
D. Gómez n 873.4
3.17/6
D. Welbeck n 875.5
0.93/3
L. Dunk n 890
1.47/3
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Brighton Attacking

Brighton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
D. Welbeck32662123 min130.6 /9010 /90431.8 /90261.1 /90220.9 /90100.4 /90
G. Rutter30641909 min30.1 /9030.1 /90301.4 /90160.8 /90281.3 /90271.3 /90
C. Kostoulas943385 min00 /9010.2 /9092.1 /9030.7 /9051.2 /9071.6 /90
S. Tzimas934309 min30.9 /9020.6 /9072 /9051.5 /9061.7 /9020.6 /90
H. Howell460238 min10.4 /9020.8 /9031.1 /9020.8 /9031.1 /9020.8 /90
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Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
1.16/2
0.52/1
J. van Hecke n 890
0.53/1
0.32/0
D. Gómez n 873.4
1.26/1
0.64/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
D. Welbeck n 875.5
1.87/4
1.57/2
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Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
0.11/0
00/0
J. van Hecke n 890
00/0
0.11/0
D. Gómez n 873.4
0.32/0
0.21/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
D. Welbeck n 875.5
0.63/1
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NewcastleBrighton
32%Possession68%
3.16Expected goals (xG)1.53
13Shots13
6Shots on target4
6Shots off target6
1Blocked shots3
12Shots inside the box10
2Corners10
1Offsides1
10Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves4
237Passes506
69%Pass accuracy84%

Newcastle Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Pope9000000007.3
L. Miley9000000107
M. Thiaw9000110106.9
S. Botman9000101207.6
D. Burn90101102Y7.3
S. Tonali90000021Y7
Joelinton9000100206.6
Bruno Guimarães8901001107.3
J. Murphy6801003007.5
J. Willock6800210006.2
W. Osula6810421007.6
Lewis Hall sub2200001007
Y. Wissa sub22001001Y6.9
H. Barnes sub2210110007.5
J. Ramsey sub10000000–

Brighton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Verbruggen9000000006.6
J. van Hecke90000002Y6.2
O. Boscagli9000001206.3
F. Kadıoğlu9000002005.3
P. Groß9000001006.2
Y. Minteh9000201105.9
K. Mitoma90000010Y6
J. Hinshelwood8810430007.3
C. Baleba8000101307
D. Welbeck8001201106.6
M. Wieffer1800000006.3
J. Veltman sub63000000Y6.2
G. Rutter sub1000001107.3
C. Kostoulas sub1000110006.6
L. Dunk sub900000005.9
M. De Cuyper sub900001106.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Newcastle v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NewcastleLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 1 scored / 2.8 conceded per game
BrightonWWWDW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Newcastle 0 · 2 draws · Brighton 4 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2025-10-18 Brighton 2–1 Newcastle
  • 2025-05-04 Brighton 1–1 Newcastle
  • 2025-03-02 Newcastle 1–2 Brighton
  • 2024-10-19 Newcastle 0–1 Brighton
  • 2024-05-11 Newcastle 1–1 Brighton
  • 2023-09-02 Brighton 3–1 Newcastle
League standing · 2025/26
Newcastle#12 pos49 pts38 pl-2 GD
Brighton#8 pos53 pts38 pl+6 GD
Goals per game
Newcastle scored1.39
Brighton scored1.37
Newcastle conceded1.45
Brighton conceded1.21

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Newcastle 3.13 xG from 13 shots, Brighton 1.88 from 13. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Malick Thiaw 30' · 0.69 xGYankuba Minteh 88' · 0.51 xGWilliam Osula 37' · 0.39 xGYoane Wissa 89' · 0.35 xGJack Hinshelwood 1' · 0.30 xGJack Hinshelwood 54' · 0.24 xGJoelinton 93' · 0.21 xGJoe Willock 28' · 0.15 xGWilliam Osula 45' · 0.09 xGKaoru Mitoma 53' · 0.09 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 85' · 0.09 xGDanny Welbeck 42' · 0.09 xGJoe Willock 55' · 0.08 xGDanny Welbeck 36' · 0.08 xGPascal Groß 85' · 0.08 xGSven Botman 30' · 0.04 xGYankuba Minteh 57' · 0.04 xGWilliam Osula 9' · 0.03 xGCarlos Baleba 8' · 0.03 xGBruno Guimarães 47' · 0.02 xGJack Hinshelwood 86' · 0.01 xGCarlos Baleba 49' · 0.01 xGHarvey Barnes 94' · 0.59 xG · goalWilliam Osula 11' · 0.41 xG · goalJack Hinshelwood 60' · 0.31 xG · goalDan Burn 23' · 0.08 xG · goal
Newcastle (attacking right)Brighton (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Newcastle1333.13
Brighton1311.88

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Newcastle led on xG, 1.87 to 0.50. At full time, Newcastle led on xG, 3.13 to 1.88. The widest gap was 1.39 xG to Newcastle, in the 47th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.11.600′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Newcastle 11 minGoal - Newcastle 23 minGoal - Brighton 60 minGoal - Newcastle 94 min
Newcastle 3.13 xGBrighton 1.88 xGdots = goals · 26 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Newcastle v Brighton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Newcastle v Brighton was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Brighton?
In their last 6 meetings, Newcastle won 0, Brighton won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Newcastle and Brighton?
Recent form — Newcastle 0W 0D 5L; Brighton 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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