Nottingham ForestNewcastle

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle result

Full-time · Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle

Premier League · · Wembley Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Newcastle · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle — this Premier League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,910 of 2,556 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Nottingham Forest 1.46, Newcastle 1.65 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Nottingham Forest and Newcastle drew 1–1 at Wembley Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 10 May. Newcastle are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Nottingham Forest.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Newcastle: Harvey Barnes (74’, assisted by Jacob Ramsey); Nottingham Forest: Elliot Anderson (88’, assisted by James McAtee).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Elliot Anderson’s goal on 88 minutes.

Discipline

P. Tierney showed two yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nottingham Forest: Igor Jesus (49’) and Ryan Yates (54’).

What it changes

Nottingham Forest move up from 16th to 15th (36 league matches played). Nottingham Forest have scored 48 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Nottingham Forest have conceded 51 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Newcastle stay 13th after this result (36 league matches played). Newcastle have scored 53 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Newcastle have conceded 55 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) 7.0, Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest) 5.9 and Joelinton (Newcastle) 5.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Nottingham Forest or Newcastle (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Nottingham Forest next host Manchester City on 7 November 2026.

Newcastle next travel to Fulham on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Newcastle: Fulham v Newcastle, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle · Premier League
  • Venue: Wembley Stadium · London
  • Referee: P. Tierney
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Nottingham Forest 1 · draws 1 · Newcastle 4 · 4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nottingham Forest 4W 0D 1L · Newcastle 1W 0D 4L

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 1.25
Goals
against 1 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.5 / 3.88
Corners
against 4.88 / 5.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 5 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.38 / 2.25
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.15 yellows
Referee · P. Tierney
20.15 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 13 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNottingham Forest for / againstLineNewcastle for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1 against n 8
2.75our book
1.25 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
3.88 for · 5.63 against n 8
Shots
10.63 for · 13.13 against n 8
19.5standard
11.5 for · 14.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4 for · 5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.75 for · 10.75 against n 8
21.5standard
11 for · 12.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.38 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: P. Tierney — 3.15 yellow cards a game, 0.15 red cards, 20.15 fouls over 13 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Sels33892925 min882.7 /90411.3 /9010 /90
S. Ortega990810 min313.4 /90111.2 /9000 /90
John989798 min121.4 /90121.4 /9000 /90
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 890
2.86/5
S. Ortega n 890
3.67/6
John n 888.5
1.43/1

Nottingham Forest Defensive

Nottingham Forest — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Milenković49854164 min420.9 /90400.9 /90370.8 /901733.7 /90320.7 /9060.1 /90
N. Williams48823923 min1232.8 /90521.2 /90180.4 /902676.1 /90360.8 /9070.2 /90
Murillo34802736 min451.5 /90431.4 /90270.9 /90983.2 /90341.1 /9060.2 /90
Morato27792142 min472 /90200.8 /90120.5 /901024.3 /90170.7 /9080.3 /90
O. Aina25832065 min411.8 /90361.6 /9040.2 /901114.8 /90160.7 /9030.1 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Milenković n 870.6
1.15/1
0.21/0
M. Thiaw
N. Williams n 876.9
0.96/0
1.35/2
S. Tonali
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
0.96/0
0.74/1
—
E. Anderson n 884
1.67/5
2.18/5
S. Tonali
Igor Jesus n 868
1.77/2
0.84/1
N. Woltemade
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Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Milenković n 870.6
1.95/4
N. Williams n 876.9
2.86/6
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
0.74/1
E. Anderson n 884
2.47/5
Igor Jesus n 868
0.83/1
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Nottingham Forest Attacking

Nottingham Forest — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Igor Jesus45642881 min140.4 /9050.2 /90591.8 /90341.1 /90190.6 /90100.3 /90
C. Wood1758994 min50.5 /9000 /90242.2 /90111 /9050.5 /9010.1 /90
D. Bakwa1646734 min00 /9020.2 /9081 /9030.4 /90141.7 /90111.3 /90
T. Awoniyi936325 min41.1 /9000 /90102.8 /9071.9 /9020.6 /9020.6 /90
A. Kalimuendo846369 min20.5 /9000 /9061.5 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9030.7 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Milenković n 870.6
00/0
00/0
N. Williams n 876.9
0.94/1
0.62/1
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
1.96/4
15/1
E. Anderson n 884
0.54/0
0.11/0
Igor Jesus n 868
27/3
1.35/2
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Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Milenković n 870.6
00/0
00/0
N. Williams n 876.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
0.94/1
0.32/0
E. Anderson n 884
0.11/0
00/0
Igor Jesus n 868
0.53/0
0.21/0
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Newcastle

Newcastle Goalkeeper

Newcastle — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Pope33902957 min1053.2 /90421.3 /9010 /90
A. Ramsdale20901807 min582.9 /90331.6 /9010 /90
J. Trafford19090 min44 /9011 /9000 /90
Newcastle — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Pope n 890
2.66/5
A. Ramsdale n 890
3.46/6

Newcastle Defensive

Newcastle — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Thiaw48874159 min571.2 /90481 /90491.1 /902274.9 /90360.8 /9090.2 /90
D. Burn38833166 min551.6 /90320.9 /90240.7 /902065.9 /90521.5 /90130.4 /90
Lewis Hall38752850 min742.3 /90381.2 /90190.6 /902146.8 /90180.6 /9030.1 /90
K. Trippier32742381 min491.9 /90150.6 /9030.1 /901043.9 /90291.1 /9050.2 /90
S. Botman29812352 min230.9 /90261 /90261 /901315 /90120.5 /9020.1 /90
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Newcastle — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Barnes n 862.5
1.36/1
1.67/2
—
M. Thiaw n 883.3
1.25/3
0.43/0
N. Milenković
S. Tonali n 884.9
1.37/2
1.25/3
E. Anderson
N. Woltemade n 855.1
1.24/1
14/1
Igor Jesus
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.21/0
2.77/4
—
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Newcastle — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
H. Barnes n 862.5
0.42/0
M. Thiaw n 883.3
1.67/4
S. Tonali n 884.9
1.16/2
N. Woltemade n 855.1
2.25/4
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.83/1
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Newcastle Attacking

Newcastle — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
H. Barnes51603048 min130.4 /9050.1 /90682 /90401.2 /90381.1 /90210.6 /90
N. Woltemade42632634 min100.3 /9030.1 /90341.2 /90180.6 /90291 /90210.7 /90
A. Gordon41682769 min160.5 /9040.1 /90612 /90371.2 /90441.4 /90521.7 /90
A. Elanga36541953 min20.1 /9010 /90211 /90110.5 /90261.2 /90211 /90
Y. Wissa1938728 min30.4 /9010.1 /90192.3 /9081 /9030.4 /9020.2 /90
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Newcastle — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Barnes n 862.5
1.45/2
0.73/1
M. Thiaw n 883.3
0.43/0
0.32/0
S. Tonali n 884.9
0.85/1
0.32/0
N. Woltemade n 855.1
0.62/1
0.41/1
A. Gordon n 867.9
1.85/3
1.24/2
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Newcastle — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Barnes n 862.5
0.42/0
0.21/0
M. Thiaw n 883.3
00/0
00/0
S. Tonali n 884.9
00/0
0.11/0
N. Woltemade n 855.1
00/0
0.21/0
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.53/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Nottingham ForestNewcastle
46%Possession54%
1.10Expected goals (xG)1.48
17Shots16
6Shots on target6
5Shots off target6
6Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box7
2Corners1
1Offsides0
16Fouls11
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
5Saves5
421Passes495
81%Pass accuracy85%

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Sels9000000006.9
N. Milenković9000000106.7
Jair9000110306.6
Morato9000001106.9
N. Williams9000001306.9
E. Anderson9010310107.6
L. Netz8300002407.3
Igor Jesus83003321Y6.5
T. Awoniyi7300111006.5
D. Bakwa6400001006.9
N. Domínguez4500000206.7
R. Yates sub45001010Y6.7
O. Hutchinson sub2600002007
C. Wood sub1700000006.2
J. McAtee sub1501101006.9
L. Lucca sub1500100006.5

Newcastle Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Pope9000000006.5
Lewis Hall9000001207.5
M. Thiaw9000000207.2
S. Botman9000000107.5
D. Burn9000000206.3
S. Tonali9000201106.9
Joelinton9000312406.9
Bruno Guimarães8900433207.3
W. Osula7100211106.2
N. Woltemade6100002006.6
J. Murphy6100000006.2
J. Ramsey sub2901001107
H. Barnes sub2910111007.3
Y. Wissa sub1900000006.5
K. Trippier sub10000010–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nottingham Forest v Newcastle — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Nottingham ForestWWWWL
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
NewcastleLLLLW
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Nottingham Forest 1 · 1 draw · Newcastle 4 · 4 goals/game
  • 2025-10-05 Newcastle 2–0 Nottingham Forest
  • 2025-02-23 Newcastle 4–3 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-11-10 Nottingham Forest 1–3 Newcastle
  • 2024-08-28 Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle
  • 2024-02-10 Nottingham Forest 2–3 Newcastle
  • 2023-12-26 Newcastle 1–3 Nottingham Forest
League standing · 2025/26
Nottingham Forest#16 pos44 pts38 pl-3 GD
Newcastle#12 pos49 pts38 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Nottingham Forest scored1.26
Newcastle scored1.39
Nottingham Forest conceded1.34
Newcastle conceded1.45

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.46 xG from 17 shots, Newcastle 1.65 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

William Osula 42' · 0.41 xGBruno Guimarães 61' · 0.36 xGJair 33' · 0.35 xGBruno Guimarães 61' · 0.10 xGWilliam Osula 9' · 0.10 xGOmari Hutchinson 72' · 0.09 xGDilane Bakwa 16' · 0.08 xGTaiwo Awoniyi 57' · 0.08 xGRyan Yates 82' · 0.07 xGIgor Jesus 45' · 0.07 xGIgor Jesus 79' · 0.07 xGBruno Guimarães 66' · 0.06 xGLorenzo Lucca 92' · 0.06 xGRyan Yates 93' · 0.06 xGJacob Ramsey 71' · 0.05 xGWilliam Osula 26' · 0.05 xGWilliam Osula 66' · 0.05 xGJames McAtee 91' · 0.04 xGRyan Yates 57' · 0.04 xGIgor Jesus 40' · 0.04 xGBruno Guimarães 50' · 0.04 xGJoelinton 71' · 0.03 xGNeco Williams 27' · 0.02 xGSandro Tonali 54' · 0.02 xGElliot Anderson 46' · 0.02 xGElliot Anderson 22' · 0.02 xGIgor Jesus 17' · 0.02 xGSandro Tonali 20' · 0.02 xGSandro Tonali 46' · 0.01 xGJoelinton 90' · 0.01 xGJoelinton 42' · 0.01 xGElliot Anderson 87' · 0.36 xG · goalHarvey Barnes 73' · 0.33 xG · goal
Nottingham Forest (attacking right)Newcastle (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Nottingham Forest1711.46
Newcastle1611.65

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Nottingham Forest 0.59, Newcastle 0.58. At full time, xG was level: Nottingham Forest 1.46, Newcastle 1.65. The widest gap was 0.82 xG to Newcastle, in the 73rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.60.800′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Newcastle 73 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 87 min
Nottingham Forest 1.46 xGNewcastle 1.65 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nottingham Forest v Newcastle?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nottingham Forest v Newcastle was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
In their last 6 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, Newcastle won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
Recent form — Nottingham Forest 4W 0D 1L; Newcastle 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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