Sunderland v Chelsea prediction

Premier League · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · Stadium of Light

Updated 5 Nov 2026, 17:47 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away fouls total over 9.5 the free pick for Sunderland v Chelsea, Premier League on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT.

Free pick

Away fouls total over 9.5

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

Predicted on 31 October 2026, before the fixture moved

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sunderland host Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Chelsea fouls total over 9.5, a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Six of Sunderland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Sunderland’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Sunderland have five wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.88. Sunderland have scored seven goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Sunderland have conceded 17 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs.

Nine of Chelsea’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Chelsea’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Chelsea have two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.17 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.67. Chelsea have scored 19 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Chelsea have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Sunderland (20th) and Chelsea (fourth) are 11 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Chelsea the stronger side, 248 rating points above Sunderland (Chelsea 1671, Sunderland 1423, after at least 47 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea.

Team news

Predicted Sunderland XI (4-2-3-1): R. Roefs, O. Alderete, L. O'Nien, Reinildo, T. Hume, G. Xhaka, N. Sadiki, E. Le Fée, C. Rigg, N. Angulo, T. Tuterov — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Enzo Le Fée (4.3 per match over 12 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Jocelin Ta Bi (4.3 per match over three appearances, two assists) have been Sunderland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sunderland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Enzo Le Fée averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 928 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Chelsea XI (3-4-2-1): M. Penders, L. Colwill, J. Acheampong, M. Lacroix, M. Caicedo, P. Neto, M. Rogers, J. Henderson, C. Palmer, R. Lavia, D. Welbeck — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, João Pedro (5.9 per match over seven appearances, five goals and three assists) and Morgan Rogers (5.8 per match over 12 appearances, six goals and four assists) have been Chelsea’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Chelsea (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), João Pedro averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 638 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last nine appearances. Morgan Rogers averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1727 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

The referee

J. Gillett takes charge; across the last 16 matches refereed (this competition) the referee has shown 3.5 yellow cards a game and 0.00 reds.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · Premier League · Stadium of Light
Referee: J. Gillett
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Sunderland 2 · draws 0 · Chelsea 0 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Sunderland 1W 2D 2L · Chelsea 3W 1D 1L

Sunderland v Chelsea (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 2.25

Goals

against 2 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

4.75 / 6.43

Corners

against 4.38 / 5.43 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.75 / 6.29

Shots on target

against 4.75 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.38 / 1.71

Cards

against 1.63 / 3.14 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

3.5 yellows

Referee · J. Gillett

19.63 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 16 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Sunderland for / against	Line	Chelsea for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	2.25 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.75 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.43 for · 5.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	14.75 for · 14.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.43 for · 12.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.75 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.29 for · 5 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	9.14 for · 12.71 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.71 for · 3.14 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: J. Gillett — 3.5 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 19.63 fouls over 16 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Sunderland

Sunderland Goalkeeper

Sunderland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Roefs	12	901080 min	231.9 /90	141.2 /90	00 /90
M. Ellborg	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Sunderland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sunderland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Roefs n 8	90	2.3 5/3
M. Ellborg n 6	90	2.5 4/4

Sunderland Defensive

Sunderland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
T. Hume	11	71784 min	212.4 /90	80.9 /90	10.1 /90	495.6 /90	121.4 /90	20.2 /90
Reinildo	10	82824 min	131.4 /90	131.4 /90	40.4 /90	525.7 /90	101.1 /90	30.3 /90
N. Mukiele	10	78776 min	212.4 /90	202.3 /90	80.9 /90	556.4 /90	111.3 /90	30.3 /90
T. Meunier	10	53526 min	71.2 /90	40.7 /90	00 /90	152.6 /90	50.9 /90	00 /90
K. Danso	8	80641 min	50.7 /90	60.8 /90	60.8 /90	182.5 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90
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Sunderland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sunderland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Roefs n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
G. Xhaka n 8	79.4	0.4 3/0	1.1 5/2	—
N. Sadiki n 8	77.5	0.9 6/0	1.5 6/4	—
E. Le Fée n 8	72.4	0.9 4/2	2.6 7/4	—
T. Hume n 8	73.5	1.2 5/3	0.8 5/0	—
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Sunderland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sunderland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Xhaka n 8	79.4	1.6 6/4
N. Sadiki n 8	77.5	1.6 5/5
E. Le Fée n 8	72.4	1.1 4/2
T. Hume n 8	73.5	1.8 5/2
N. Angulo n 8	60.4	1.7 6/3
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Sunderland Attacking

Sunderland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
W. Isidor	9	43386 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	102.3 /90	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	30.7 /90
B. Brobbey	8	72579 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	121.9 /90	71.1 /90	60.9 /90	30.5 /90
Timur Tuterov	5	64319 min	20.6 /90	00 /90	30.8 /90	20.6 /90	20.6 /90	20.6 /90
C. Talbi	4	58230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90
G. Xhaka	12	83995 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	90.8 /90	30.3 /90	272.4 /90	80.7 /90
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Sunderland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sunderland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Roefs n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Xhaka n 8	79.4	1.1 4/3	0.4 2/1
N. Sadiki n 8	77.5	0.6 2/1	0.1 1/0
E. Le Fée n 8	72.4	1.6 5/3	0.6 3/1
T. Hume n 8	73.5	0.9 3/1	0.2 1/0
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Sunderland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sunderland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Roefs n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Xhaka n 8	79.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
N. Sadiki n 8	77.5	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
E. Le Fée n 8	72.4	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
T. Hume n 8	73.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Chelsea

Chelsea Goalkeeper

Chelsea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
E. Martínez	6	88525 min	254.3 /90	111.9 /90
M. Penders	5	75375 min	112.6 /90	20.5 /90
Robert Sánchez	1	9090 min	44 /90	22 /90

Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 6	87.5	4.3 6/6
M. Penders n 5	75	2.6 3/3
Robert Sánchez n 8	87	3.1 6/5

Chelsea Defensive

Chelsea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Joshua Kofi Acheampong	10	76761 min	273.2 /90	50.6 /90	30.4 /90	455.3 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
M. Lacroix	9	90810 min	151.7 /90	91 /90	50.6 /90	384.2 /90	60.7 /90	10.1 /90
Levi Colwill	9	86778 min	91 /90	50.6 /90	40.5 /90	384.4 /90	80.9 /90	10.1 /90
Pep Chavarría	9	55494 min	81.5 /90	81.5 /90	00 /90	173.1 /90	50.9 /90	00 /90
J. Hato	7	62437 min	122.5 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90	234.7 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90
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Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	1.3 6/4	2 7/4	—
M. Rogers n 8	83.3	1.2 6/3	1.6 6/4	—
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	0.8 5/0	0.3 2/0	—
Pedro Neto n 8	80.8	1.3 5/3	0.6 4/0	—
M. Lacroix n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.4 3/0	—
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Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	1.2 5/3
M. Rogers n 8	83.3	1.6 6/4
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	2.9 7/5
Pedro Neto n 8	80.8	2.1 8/4
M. Lacroix n 8	90	1.3 8/2
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Chelsea Attacking

Chelsea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Rogers	11	82906 min	50.5 /90	40.4 /90	131.3 /90	70.7 /90	232.3 /90	191.9 /90
João Pedro	7	77538 min	50.8 /90	30.5 /90	142.3 /90	91.5 /90	71.2 /90	71.2 /90
D. Welbeck	3	78234 min	31.2 /90	00 /90	62.3 /90	41.5 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90
J. Bynoe-Gittens	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	24 /90	24 /90	12 /90	12 /90
C. Palmer	11	85933 min	50.5 /90	30.3 /90	323.1 /90	141.4 /90	272.6 /90	181.7 /90
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Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	2.7 6/5	1.1 5/3
M. Rogers n 8	83.3	1.4 6/3	0.8 5/1
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	0.3 1/1	0.2 1/0
Pedro Neto n 8	80.8	1.8 8/3	1.5 7/3
M. Lacroix n 8	90	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
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Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Palmer n 8	83.8	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
M. Rogers n 8	83.3	0.5 4/0	0.4 1/1
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 8	72.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Pedro Neto n 8	80.8	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
M. Lacroix n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Sunderland v Chelsea — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SunderlandLDDWL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

ChelseaWWLDW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Sunderland 2 · 0 draws · Chelsea 0 · 3 goals/game

2026-05-24 Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea
2025-10-25 Chelsea 1–2 Sunderland

League standing · 2026/27

Sunderland#20 pos5 pts9 pl-10 GD

Chelsea#4 pos16 pts9 pl+4 GD

Goals per game

Sunderland scored0.78

Chelsea scored2.11

Sunderland conceded1.89

Chelsea conceded1.67

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Sunderland v Chelsea?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Sunderland v Chelsea is Away fouls total over 9.5.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Chelsea?: In their last 2 meetings, Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sunderland and Chelsea?: Recent form — Sunderland 1W 2D 2L; Chelsea 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Nov 2026, 17:47 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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