NacionalEstoril

Nacional v Estoril result

Full-time · Nacional 2–0 Estoril

Primeira Liga · · Estádio da Madeira

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nacional · Estoril

The model’s pre-match pick

Nacional 2–0 Estoril — Nacional won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.5% of 1761 landed (95% range 74.5–78.5%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,097 of 1,457 times (75.3%), against an average rating of 70.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Nacional beat Estoril 2–0 at Estádio da Madeira in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 16 August.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Nacional: Zé Vitor (68’, assisted by Léo Santos) and Léo Santos (77’, assisted by Daniel Júnior). Xeka (32’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Zé Vitor’s goal on 68 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Nacional 2.03, Estoril 0.86, from 20 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

B. J. Costa showed six yellow cards and one red — against 3.7 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nacional: Matheus Dias (51’) and Filipe Soares (79’); Estoril: Xeka (11’), Xeka (32’), Isma Sierra (82’) and Ferro (85’).

What it changes

Nacional move up from fifth to second (two league matches played).

Estoril move down from first to 15th (two league matches played).

Nacional are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Estoril are winless in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Léo Santos (Nacional) 9.5, Zé Vitor (Nacional) 7.5 and Renato Bellucci (Nacional) 5.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

Estoril are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Nacional, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Nacional or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.5% of the time in the last 90 days (1348 of 1761).

Next up

Nacional next host Academico Viseu on 7 November 2026.

Estoril next travel to GIL Vicente on 29 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nacional: Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November — the preview. Next for Estoril: GIL Vicente v Estoril, Sunday 29 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nacional 2–0 Estoril · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio da Madeira · Funchal
  • Referee: B. J. Costa
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Nacional 0 · draws 2 · Estoril 2 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nacional 2W 1D 2L · Estoril 0W 3D 2L

Nacional 2–0 Estoril (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 0.88
Goals
against 1 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.63 / 3.88
Corners
against 7.13 / 5.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 3.13
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 2
Cards
against 1.88 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.7 yellows
Referee · B. J. Costa
24.3 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNacional for / againstLineEstoril for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1 against n 8
2.5our book
0.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 7.13 against n 8
9.5standard
3.88 for · 5.5 against n 8
Shots
12.75 for · 16 against n 8
19.5standard
10.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3.13 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.63 for · 13 against n 8
21.5standard
13.5 for · 14.13 against n 8
Cards shown
3.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: B. J. Costa — 3.7 yellow cards a game, 0.1 red cards, 24.3 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Nacional

Nacional Goalkeeper

Nacional — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Renato Bellucci19090 min44 /9022 /9000 /90

Nacional Defensive

Nacional — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Léo Santos19090 min00 /9011 /9000 /9055 /9011 /9000 /90
Matheus Dias19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9033 /9000 /9000 /90
Zé Vitor19090 min33 /9000 /9033 /9077 /9000 /9000 /90
Daniel De la Cruz11717 min00 /9000 /90210.6 /9015.3 /9000 /9000 /90
Liziero19090 min44 /9011 /9000 /9077 /9033 /9000 /90
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Nacional — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Zé Vitor n 890
2.37/6
0.64/1
Ferro
Pablo Ruan n 837.5
2.13/2
1.86/0
Y. Begraoui
Liziero n 881.9
1.65/4
1.68/3
—
Matheus Dias n 877.8
1.67/3
16/1
Ferro
Léo Santos n 890
1.16/3
0.43/0
Ferro
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Nacional — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Liziero n 881.9
4.18/8
Pablo Ruan n 837.5
2.74/3
Zé Vitor n 890
2.36/5
Matheus Dias n 877.8
1.34/4
Léo Santos n 890
1.14/3
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Nacional Attacking

Nacional — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Pablo Ruan19090 min00 /9000 /9022 /9011 /9000 /9000 /90
Daniel Júnior18080 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9044.5 /9033.4 /90
Miguel Baeza17272 min11.3 /9000 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9000 /90
Liziero19090 min11 /9000 /9022 /9022 /9011 /9000 /90
M. Jensen18080 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.1 /9022.3 /90
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Nacional — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Pablo Ruan n 837.5
1.23/1
0.93/0
Liziero n 881.9
1.16/2
0.53/1
Zé Vitor n 890
0.65/0
0.43/0
Matheus Dias n 877.8
0.62/2
0.31/1
Léo Santos n 890
0.52/1
00/0
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Nacional — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Léo Santos n 890
00/0
0.11/0
Liziero n 881.9
0.11/0
00/0
Zé Vitor n 890
00/0
00/0
Matheus Dias n 877.8
00/0
00/0
Pablo Ruan n 837.5
00/0
00/0
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Estoril

Estoril Goalkeeper

Estoril — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Joel Robles19090 min–11 /9000 /90

Estoril Defensive

Estoril — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Fernando Medrano19090 min33 /9011 /9000 /9044 /9011 /9000 /90
Ferro19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /9033 /9022 /9000 /90
Isma Sierra19090 min11 /9033 /9000 /9055 /9011 /9000 /90
Ricard Sánchez16666 min34.1 /9011.4 /9011.4 /9045.5 /9034.1 /9011.4 /90
Pedro Carvalho12424 min13.8 /9000 /9000 /9013.8 /9000 /9000 /90
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Estoril — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ferro n 874
1.15/2
0.64/0
Léo Santos
Y. Begraoui n 888.8
0.85/1
1.46/3
Pablo Ruan
João Carvalho n 881.3
0.43/0
1.14/3
—
R. Guitane n 860.1
0.21/0
2.15/3
—
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
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Estoril — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ferro n 874
2.48/3
R. Guitane n 860.1
2.17/2
João Carvalho n 881.3
1.16/2
Y. Begraoui n 888.8
0.32/0
A. Tsoungui n 887.8
1.96/5
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Estoril Attacking

Estoril — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Begraoui19090 min11 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9000 /9000 /90
Fabrício Garcia12424 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.8 /90
João Carvalho19090 min00 /9000 /9022 /9000 /9033 /9000 /90
R. Guitane19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9033 /9022 /90
Xeka18383 min00 /9000 /9022.2 /9000 /9022.2 /9000 /90
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Estoril — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Begraoui n 888.8
1.48/2
0.86/0
R. Guitane n 860.1
1.15/1
0.21/0
João Carvalho n 881.3
0.85/1
0.32/0
Ferro n 874
0.32/0
0.21/0
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
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Estoril — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Y. Begraoui n 888.8
0.54/0
00/0
Ferro n 874
0.21/0
00/0
João Carvalho n 881.3
00/0
0.11/0
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Guitane n 860.1
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NacionalEstoril
59%Possession41%
2.03Expected goals (xG)0.86
20Shots9
3Shots on target5
9Shots off target3
8Blocked shots1
10Shots inside the box4
7Corners4
1Offsides0
13Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
5Saves1
451Passes316
87%Pass accuracy80%

Nacional Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Renato Bellucci9000000007.7
Wesley Gasolina9000102007
Léo Santos9011213108.9
Zé Vitor9010212208.7
M. Jensen9000100207.3
Filipe Soares90001032Y6.6
Liziero9000001407
Pablo Ruan8800201106.7
Daniel Júnior8101101007.5
Matheus Dias66000010Y6.6
Miguel Baeza6600000006.7
Stavros Gavriel sub2400111007.2
Deivison sub2400000106.6
Daniel De la Cruz sub900101006.7
Joel da Silva sub800000006.7

Estoril Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel Robles9000000006.6
Ferro90000003Y7
Isma Sierra90001000Y6.5
João Carvalho9000111107
Y. Begraoui9000101006.5
A. Tsoungui8500003006.2
Ricard Sánchez7500001206.6
Fernando Medrano7500000206.7
R. Guitane6300000106.3
André Lacximicant6300220006.3
Xeka32002200RY5.2
Tiago Brito sub2700100106.2
Fabrício Garcia sub2700000006.7
Pedro Carvalho sub1500001006.7
Gonçalo Costa sub1500000006.5
Jandro Orellana sub1100000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nacional v Estoril — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NacionalWLLWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
EstorilLDDLD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Nacional 0 · 2 draws · Estoril 2 · 2 goals/game
  • 2026-03-15 Nacional 0–1 Estoril
  • 2025-10-26 Estoril 1–1 Nacional
  • 2025-02-15 Nacional 2–2 Estoril
  • 2024-09-15 Estoril 1–0 Nacional
League standing · 2026/27
Nacional#16 pos7 pts10 pl-9 GD
Estoril#18 pos2 pts10 pl-14 GD
Goals per game
Nacional scored1
Estoril scored0.5
Nacional conceded1.9
Estoril conceded1.9

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nacional v Estoril?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nacional v Estoril was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Estoril?
In their last 4 meetings, Nacional won 0, Estoril won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nacional and Estoril?
Recent form — Nacional 2W 1D 2L; Estoril 0W 3D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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