SC Braga v Estoril result

Full-time · SC Braga 1–0 Estoril

Primeira Liga · Mon, 14 Sep 2026 20:45 BST · Estádio Municipal de Braga

Updated 10 Nov 2026, 20:01 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: SC Braga · Estoril · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

SC Braga 1–0 Estoril — SC Braga won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

Best price: 2.18 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 56.1% of 139 landed (95% range 47.8–64.1%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

SC Braga beat Estoril 1–0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga in the Primeira Liga on Monday 14 September. Estoril are winless in their last 14 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — SC Braga: Jonas Wind (83’, assisted by Jean-Baptiste Gorby). Ferro (63’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jonas Wind’s goal on 83 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: SC Braga 1.79, Estoril 0.75, from 20 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

D. Silva showed four yellow cards and one red — against 5.7 yellows a game across the last 16 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Estoril: Ferro (34’), Ferro (63’), João Carvalho (85’) and Pedro Carvalho (88’).

What it changes

SC Braga move up from eighth to seventh (five league matches played). SC Braga have scored seven goals, the sixth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). SC Braga have conceded five goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Estoril stay 17th after this result (six league matches played). Estoril have scored two goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Estoril have conceded eight goals, the ninth-most of the 18 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Gustaf Lagerbielke (SC Braga) 5.2, Adrian Bajrami (SC Braga) 4.8 and Jonas Wind (SC Braga) 4.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

SC Braga next host KuPS on 26 November 2026.

Estoril next travel to GIL Vicente on 29 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for SC Braga: SC Braga v KuPS, Thursday 26 November — the preview. Next for Estoril: GIL Vicente v Estoril, Sunday 29 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: SC Braga 1–0 Estoril · Primeira Liga
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga · Braga
Referee: D. Silva
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): SC Braga 3 · draws 2 · Estoril 1 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: SC Braga 3W 1D 1L · Estoril 0W 2D 3L

SC Braga 1–0 Estoril (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 10 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 0.63

Goals

against 0.63 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

4.75 / 4.38

Corners

against 2.88 / 5.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.38 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 2.13 / 3.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.75 / 2.5

Cards

against 2.38 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.69 yellows

Referee · D. Silva

29.56 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 16 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	SC Braga for / against	Line	Estoril for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	0.63 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.75 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.38 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	8.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.5 for · 12.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.5 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.75 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: D. Silva — 5.69 yellow cards a game, 0.31 red cards, 29.56 fouls over 16 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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SC Braga

SC Braga Goalkeeper

SC Braga — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Bernardo Fontes	6	92552 min	91.5 /90	50.8 /90	00 /90

SC Braga — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Bernardo Fontes n 6	92	1.5 2/1

SC Braga Defensive

SC Braga — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
G. Lagerbielke	6	92552 min	71.1 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90	243.9 /90	61 /90	10.2 /90
Vitor Carvalho	6	92551 min	00 /90	91.5 /90	20.3 /90	325.2 /90	20.3 /90	10.2 /90
Adrian Bajrami	4	71285 min	41.3 /90	61.9 /90	10.3 /90	113.5 /90	103.2 /90	10.3 /90
Sergio Barcia	3	75225 min	10.4 /90	62.4 /90	10.4 /90	72.8 /90	52 /90	00 /90
B. Arrey-Mbi	1	4242 min	12.1 /90	00 /90	00 /90	24.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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SC Braga — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Lagerbielke n 8	91.5	1 4/4	0.6 5/0	Isma Sierra
Bernardo Fontes n 6	92	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Vitor Carvalho n 8	88.3	0.6 3/1	0.4 3/0	—
Víctor Gómez n 8	85.9	1.4 6/4	0.8 5/1	—
Demir Ege Tıknaz n 8	82.6	1.5 6/3	0.8 4/2	—
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SC Braga — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Lagerbielke n 8	91.5	1.2 6/3
Vitor Carvalho n 8	88.3	0.3 1/1
Víctor Gómez n 8	85.9	1.4 6/3
Demir Ege Tıknaz n 8	82.6	3.1 8/7
Pau Victor n 8	78	1 5/2
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SC Braga Attacking

SC Braga — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Pau Victor	6	74444 min	40.8 /90	10.2 /90	61.2 /90	61.2 /90	51 /90	40.8 /90
M. Dorgeles	6	51308 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90	123.5 /90	10.3 /90
Fran Navarro	5	65327 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	41.1 /90	20.6 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
Diego Rodrigues	4	35140 min	21.3 /90	00 /90	31.9 /90	31.9 /90	31.9 /90	10.6 /90
Gabri Martínez	3	40121 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	21.5 /90	10.7 /90	32.2 /90	10.7 /90
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SC Braga — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Lagerbielke n 8	91.5	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Bernardo Fontes n 6	92	0 0/0	0 0/0
Vitor Carvalho n 8	88.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Víctor Gómez n 8	85.9	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Demir Ege Tıknaz n 8	82.6	0.5 3/1	0.3 2/0
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SC Braga — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Bernardo Fontes n 6	92	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Lagerbielke n 8	91.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
Vitor Carvalho n 8	88.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Víctor Gómez n 8	85.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Demir Ege Tıknaz n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
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Estoril

Estoril Goalkeeper

Estoril — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Joel Robles	5	90450 min	102 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90

Estoril — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Joel Robles n 8	90	2.1 4/3

Estoril Defensive

Estoril — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Ferro	5	90450 min	173.4 /90	112.2 /90	20.4 /90	295.8 /90	40.8 /90	20.4 /90
Isma Sierra	5	90450 min	40.8 /90	102 /90	30.6 /90	234.6 /90	61.2 /90	20.4 /90
Fernando Medrano	5	81406 min	112.4 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90	224.9 /90	81.8 /90	10.2 /90
Ricard Sánchez	5	72361 min	112.7 /90	30.7 /90	30.7 /90	184.5 /90	92.2 /90	10.2 /90
Pedro Carvalho	4	2078 min	33.5 /90	11.2 /90	11.2 /90	78.1 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Estoril — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Isma Sierra n 5	90	1.2 3/1	0.8 3/1	G. Lagerbielke
Ferro n 8	74.3	0.9 5/1	0.2 1/0	—
João Carvalho n 8	90	0.1 1/0	1.8 6/5	—
Y. Begraoui n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0	1.4 6/3	—
Joel Robles n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
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Estoril — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ferro n 8	74.3	3.2 8/5
João Carvalho n 8	90	1.5 6/4
Isma Sierra n 5	90	0.8 3/1
Y. Begraoui n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0
Fernando Medrano n 5	81.2	2.4 5/4
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Estoril Attacking

Estoril — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Y. Begraoui	5	90450 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	71.4 /90	51 /90	61.2 /90	30.6 /90
Fabrício Garcia	5	33165 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.1 /90
Peixinho	2	1734 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	12.6 /90	12.6 /90
João Carvalho	5	90450 min	00 /90	00 /90	71.4 /90	30.6 /90	91.8 /90	30.6 /90
A. Tsoungui	5	77383 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.5 /90	10.2 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90
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Estoril — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Begraoui n 8	88.8	1.4 8/2	0.9 6/1
Isma Sierra n 5	90	1.2 4/2	0.2 1/0
João Carvalho n 8	90	1 5/2	0.5 4/0
Joel Robles n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ferro n 8	74.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Estoril — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 10 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Y. Begraoui n 8	88.8	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Joel Robles n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
João Carvalho n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Isma Sierra n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ferro n 8	74.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SC Braga		Estoril
58%	Possession	42%
1.79	Expected goals (xG)	0.75
20	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	1
8	Shots off target	5
5	Blocked shots	6
13	Shots inside the box	8
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
9	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	1
1	Saves	5
625	Passes	460
86%	Pass accuracy	82%

SC Braga Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
Pau Victor	90	0	0	2	1	3	0	6.5
João Moutinho	90	0	0	0	0	3	2	7.6
J. Milošević	90	0	0	3	1	2	1	7.3
Gabri Martínez	90	0	0	3	2	1	0	7.2
Víctor Gómez	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
Bernardo Fontes	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
G. Lagerbielke	81	0	0	2	2	1	2	8.2
Demir Ege Tıknaz	64	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.9
Gabriel Silva	58	0	0	1	0	0	2	6.5
A. Barišić	58	0	0	1	0	1	0	7
B. Arrey-Mbi	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.6
Adrian Bajrami sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	6	7.9
Vitor Carvalho sub	32	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Ricardo Horta sub	32	0	0	0	0	4	0	6.9
Jean-Baptiste Gorby sub	26	0	1	1	0	2	1	7.3
J. Wind sub	9	1	0	2	1	0	0	7.7

Estoril Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Isma Sierra	90	1	0	0	0	0	7
M. Robin	90	0	0	0	3	0	6.6
R. Jurišić	90	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
João Carvalho	90	0	0	1	1	Y	6.3
Y. Begraoui	90	2	1	0	0	0	5.9
Joel Robles	90	0	0	0	0	0	8.2
Ricard Sánchez	77	0	0	1	0	0	7.7
Nail Omerovic	77	2	0	1	2	0	6.3
J. Holsgrove	77	1	0	3	0	0	7.3
Ferro	63	0	0	1	3	RY	6.3
Fabrício Garcia	10	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
Peixinho sub	55	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
S. Amissah sub	25	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
André Lacximicant sub	13	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
Pedro Carvalho sub	13	0	0	0	1	Y	6.2
Jordan Arnolin sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind SC Braga v Estoril — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SC BragaWDWWL

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

EstorilDLLLD

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

SC Braga 3 · 2 draws · Estoril 1 · 2.33 goals/game

2026-05-03 SC Braga 1–1 Estoril
2025-12-19 Estoril 1–0 SC Braga
2025-04-19 Estoril 0–2 SC Braga
2024-12-06 SC Braga 2–2 Estoril
2024-04-13 Estoril 0–1 SC Braga
2023-12-03 SC Braga 3–1 Estoril

League standing · 2026/27

SC Braga#8 pos17 pts11 pl+2 GD

Estoril#18 pos2 pts10 pl-14 GD

Goals per game

SC Braga scored1.18

Estoril scored0.5

SC Braga conceded1

Estoril conceded1.9

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for SC Braga v Estoril?: TACTIX’s free model pick for SC Braga v Estoril was Under 2.5 goals (best price 2.18 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Estoril?: In their last 6 meetings, SC Braga won 3, Estoril won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of SC Braga and Estoril?: Recent form — SC Braga 3W 1D 1L; Estoril 0W 2D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 10 Nov 2026, 20:01 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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