Vitória SC v Nacional result

Full-time · Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional

Primeira Liga · · Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Vitória SC · Nacional · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional — Vitória SC won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 4960 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,815 of 2,442 times (74.3%), against an average rating of 73.3%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Vitória SC beat Nacional 1–0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 23 August. Nacional are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Vitória SC, every meeting checked.

The goals

Vitória SC led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Vitória SC: Gustavo (4’, assisted by Miguel Nogueira).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Gustavo’s goal on 4 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Vitória SC 3.14, Nacional 0.42, from 23 shots to 7 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Pedro Ramalho, Portugal showed three yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Vitória SC: Gonçalo Nogueira (28’) and Miguel Nogueira (38’); Nacional: Daniel Júnior (90+5’).

What it changes

Vitória SC move up from 17th to ninth (three league matches played). Vitória SC have scored 10 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Vitória SC have conceded 10 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Nacional move down from second to sixth (three league matches played). Nacional have scored 10 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Nacional have conceded 18 goals, the fifth-most of the 18 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Gustavo (Vitória SC) 8.0, Renato Bellucci (Nacional) 6.3 and Miguel Nogueira (Vitória SC) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Vitória SC or Nacional (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3854 of 4960).

Next up

Vitória SC next travel to GIL Vicente on 2 November 2026.

Nacional next travel to Arouca on 1 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Vitória SC: GIL Vicente v Vitória SC, Monday 2 November — the preview. Next for Nacional: Arouca v Nacional, Sunday 1 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimarães
  • Referee: Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Vitória SC 3 · draws 1 · Nacional 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Vitória SC 0W 0D 5L · Nacional 2W 1D 2L

Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 16 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.63 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 4.88
Corners
against 4.25 / 6.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 4.63 / 4.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 2.88
Cards
against 3.25 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.83 yellows
Referee · Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
25.17 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 16 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameVitória SC for / againstLineNacional for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5our book
1.25 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
4.38 for · 4.25 against n 8
9.5standard
4.88 for · 6.88 against n 8
Shots
14.13 for · 9.13 against n 8
19.5standard
13.25 for · 15.75 against n 8
Shots on target
3.63 for · 4.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.38 for · 12.38 against n 8
21.5standard
14.5 for · 13.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 3.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2.88 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Pedro Ramalho, Portugal — 4.83 yellow cards a game, 0.17 red cards, 25.17 fouls over 6 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Vitória SC

Vitória SC Goalkeeper

Vitória SC — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
O. Zych290180 min10.5 /9042 /9000 /90

Vitória SC Defensive

Vitória SC — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
João Mendes290180 min52.5 /9021 /9021 /9073.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Óscar Rivas290180 min31.5 /9021 /9000 /90115.5 /9021 /9010.5 /90
Thiago Balieiro290180 min42 /9052.5 /9000 /9084 /9021 /9010.5 /90
Miguel Maga257114 min10.8 /9000 /9000 /9021.6 /9010.8 /9000 /90
T. Strata23366 min45.5 /9022.7 /9000 /9056.8 /9011.4 /9000 /90
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Vitória SC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Vitória SC before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Thiago Balieiro n 890.6
1.48/2
0.43/0
Zé Vitor
João Mendes n 888.9
1.48/3
0.54/0
Léo Santos
Óscar Rivas n 890.6
0.94/3
1.26/3
Zé Vitor
Gustavo n 877
1.36/2
1.97/5
Daniel Júnior
Samu n 886
0.85/1
0.74/1
Daniel Júnior
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Vitória SC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Vitória SC before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
João Mendes n 888.9
2.45/5
Thiago Balieiro n 890.6
2.17/5
Óscar Rivas n 890.6
1.58/4
Gustavo n 877
1.64/2
Samu n 886
1.88/3
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Vitória SC Attacking

Vitória SC — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Ndoye284168 min10.5 /9000 /9073.8 /9010.5 /9021.1 /9000 /90
Gustavo290179 min00 /9000 /9073.5 /9021 /9031.5 /9031.5 /90
Samu289178 min10.5 /9000 /9063 /9021 /9042 /9000 /90
Gonçalo Nogueira277154 min00 /9000 /9010.6 /9000 /9042.3 /9000 /90
Beni268135 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.7 /9021.3 /90
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Vitória SC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Vitória SC before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
João Mendes n 888.9
16/2
0.43/0
Thiago Balieiro n 890.6
0.43/0
00/0
Óscar Rivas n 890.6
0.22/0
0.11/0
Gustavo n 877
3.27/6
1.34/4
Samu n 886
28/3
16/2
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Vitória SC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Vitória SC before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
João Mendes n 888.9
0.11/0
00/0
Óscar Rivas n 890.6
00/0
00/0
Thiago Balieiro n 890.6
00/0
00/0
Gustavo n 877
0.32/0
0.11/0
Samu n 886
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Nacional

Nacional Goalkeeper

Nacional — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Renato Bellucci290180 min94.5 /9021 /9000 /90

Nacional Defensive

Nacional — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Léo Santos290180 min10.5 /9010.5 /9000 /90126 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Zé Vitor290180 min52.5 /9000 /9042 /90115.5 /9021 /9000 /90
Matheus Dias278156 min00 /9000 /9010.6 /9042.3 /9021.2 /9010.6 /90
Daniel De la Cruz11717 min00 /9000 /90210.6 /9015.3 /9000 /9000 /90
Liziero290180 min84 /9021 /9000 /90136.5 /9052.5 /9000 /90
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Nacional — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Zé Vitor n 890
2.37/6
0.43/0
Óscar Rivas
Liziero n 882.5
1.85/5
1.68/3
—
Léo Santos n 890
1.36/4
0.43/0
João Mendes
Pablo Ruan n 846.1
1.73/2
1.77/0
—
Daniel Júnior n 873.1
1.56/4
2.56/5
Samu
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Nacional — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Liziero n 882.5
4.48/8
Zé Vitor n 890
26/5
Léo Santos n 890
0.94/2
Pablo Ruan n 846.1
2.45/3
Daniel Júnior n 873.1
1.25/2
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Nacional Attacking

Nacional — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Pablo Ruan289178 min00 /9000 /9042 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Daniel Júnior281161 min00 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9000 /9052.8 /9031.7 /90
Miguel Baeza269138 min10.7 /9000 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9000 /90
Liziero290180 min10.5 /9000 /9021 /9021 /9021 /9000 /90
M. Jensen285170 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /9010.5 /9031.6 /90
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Nacional — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Liziero n 882.5
1.16/2
0.53/1
Léo Santos n 890
0.83/2
0.11/0
Zé Vitor n 890
0.85/1
0.43/0
Pablo Ruan n 846.1
1.54/2
0.73/0
Daniel Júnior n 873.1
1.27/1
0.85/0
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Nacional — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Léo Santos n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
Zé Vitor n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Liziero n 882.5
0.11/0
00/0
Pablo Ruan n 846.1
00/0
00/0
Daniel Júnior n 873.1
00/0
0.32/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Vitória SCNacional
48%Possession52%
3.14Expected goals (xG)0.42
23Shots7
5Shots on target0
13Shots off target5
5Blocked shots2
13Shots inside the box3
4Corners3
2Offsides1
18Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Saves3
382Passes423
81%Pass accuracy78%

Vitória SC Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
O. Zych9000000006.9
T. Strata9000312207.7
Óscar Rivas9000001007.5
Thiago Balieiro9000000107
João Mendes9000100107
Samu9000112306.7
A. Ndoye9000403006.7
Gustavo7810533107.9
Gonçalo Nogueira72000002Y6.9
L. Doucet6300000107
Miguel Nogueira63012021Y7.2
Beni sub2700000106.3
O. Camara sub2700101206.6
M. Mitrović sub1800000006.3
Telmo Arcanjo sub1200100006.7

Nacional Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Renato Bellucci9000000007.5
Léo Santos9000001107.3
Zé Vitor9000000207
Filipe Soares9000100207.2
Daniel Júnior90000012Y7.2
Pablo Ruan9000101006.5
Matheus Dias8000000106.3
M. Jensen8000000206.5
Liziero6800100106.5
Wesley Gasolina5600000106.2
Miguel Baeza5600001107
W. Kokolo sub3400002106.9
Daniel De la Cruz sub3400100106.5
Stavros Gavriel sub2200100006.3
Matchoi Djaló sub1000000006.7
A. Obando sub1000001006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Vitória SC v Nacional — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Vitória SCLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
NacionalLLWDW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Vitória SC 3 · 1 draw · Nacional 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-16 Nacional 2–0 Guimaraes
  • 2026-01-02 Guimaraes 2–1 Nacional
  • 2025-05-03 Nacional 1–2 Guimaraes
  • 2024-12-23 Guimaraes 2–2 Nacional
  • 2021-04-26 Nacional 1–0 Guimaraes
  • 2021-01-21 Guimaraes 3–1 Nacional
League standing · 2026/27
Vitória SC#13 pos8 pts9 pl0 GD
Nacional#15 pos7 pts9 pl-8 GD
Goals per game
Vitória SC scored1.11
Nacional scored1.11
Vitória SC conceded1.11
Nacional conceded2

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Vitória SC v Nacional?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Vitória SC v Nacional was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Nacional?
In their last 6 meetings, Vitória SC won 3, Nacional won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Vitória SC and Nacional?
Recent form — Vitória SC 0W 0D 5L; Nacional 2W 1D 2L.

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