AroucaNacional

Arouca v Nacional result

Full-time · Arouca 1–0 Nacional

Primeira Liga · · Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arouca · Nacional

The model’s pre-match pick

Arouca 1–0 Nacional — Arouca won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.60 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.6% of 285 landed (95% range 74.6–83.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 188 of 276 times (68.1%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Arouca beat Nacional 1–0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 November. Arouca have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Nacional: an own goal by Matheus Dias (64’).

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Arouca 0.74, Nacional 0.34, from 13 shots to 5 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Arouca: Orest Lebedenko (76’) and Pablo Gozálbez (90+4’); Nacional: Matchoi Djaló (74’) and Danel Dongmo (78’).

What it changes

Arouca move up from fifth to fourth (10 league matches played). Arouca have scored 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Arouca have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Nacional stay 15th after this result (10 league matches played). Nacional have scored 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Nacional have conceded 19 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Arouca are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Renato Bellucci (Nacional) 4.7, Zé Vitor (Nacional) 3.7 and I. de Arruabarrena (Arouca) 3.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Arouca are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Nacional, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Arouca to win, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Arouca next host Rio Ave on 28 November 2026.

Nacional next host Academico Viseu on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arouca: Arouca v Rio Ave, Saturday 28 November — the preview. Next for Nacional: Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arouca 1–0 Nacional · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca
  • Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Arouca 4 · draws 0 · Nacional 0 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arouca 3W 1D 1L · Nacional 1W 0D 4L

Arouca 1–0 Nacional (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.25 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
3 / 4
Corners
against 5.43 / 5.14 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.71 / 3.14
Shots on target
against 4.71 / 5.71 · 1 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.71 / 1.43
Cards
against 3.29 / 2.29 · 4 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameArouca for / againstLineNacional for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.75our book
0.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
3 for · 5.43 against n 7
9.5standard
4 for · 5.14 against n 7
Shots
11.71 for · 13.71 against n 7
19.5standard
9.29 for · 15.57 against n 7
Shots on target
3.71 for · 4.71 against n 7
8.5standard
3.14 for · 5.71 against n 7
Fouls committed
11.43 for · 10.71 against n 7
21.5standard
11.43 for · 11.71 against n 7
Cards shown
2.71 for · 3.29 against n 7
3.5standard
1.43 for · 2.29 against n 7

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho.

Arouca

Arouca Goalkeeper

Arouca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
I. de Arruabarrena990810 min303.3 /9050.6 /9000 /90
Arouca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
3.45/4

Arouca Defensive

Arouca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Tiago Esgaio990808 min131.4 /9091 /9020.2 /90364 /9091 /9000 /90
José Fontán987787 min131.5 /9080.9 /90121.4 /90303.4 /9070.8 /9030.3 /90
O. Lebedenko982736 min202.4 /9081 /9020.2 /90344.2 /90111.3 /9010.1 /90
Javi Sánchez887699 min70.9 /90141.8 /9050.6 /90212.7 /9040.5 /9030.4 /90
B. Popović257113 min10.8 /9021.6 /9010.8 /9043.2 /9010.8 /9000 /90
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Arouca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
00/0
0.63/2
—
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
1.17/2
0.54/0
Zé Vitor
José Fontán n 887.1
0.96/1
0.52/1
Zé Vitor
T. Fukui n 885.9
1.36/3
26/6
Stavros Gavriel
N. Djouahra n 883.8
0.32/0
0.32/0
Stavros Gavriel
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Arouca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
1.47/3
José Fontán n 887.1
1.58/3
T. Fukui n 885.9
1.47/4
N. Djouahra n 883.8
1.15/2
O. Lebedenko n 888.9
2.48/5
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Arouca Attacking

Arouca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Barbero971639 min50.7 /9000 /90182.5 /90101.4 /9030.4 /9020.3 /90
D. Nandín724167 min10.5 /9000 /9063.2 /9031.6 /9000 /9063.2 /90
G. Rukavina447186 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9021 /9000 /90
B. Mansilla41977 min00 /9000 /9011.2 /9000 /9033.5 /9022.3 /90
T. Fukui986777 min10.1 /9000 /90111.3 /9050.6 /90151.7 /9050.6 /90
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Arouca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
00/0
00/0
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
0.54/0
0.11/0
José Fontán n 887.1
0.42/1
0.42/1
T. Fukui n 885.9
1.46/3
0.73/2
N. Djouahra n 883.8
2.18/4
0.32/0
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Arouca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
00/0
00/0
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
00/0
00/0
José Fontán n 887.1
0.32/0
00/0
T. Fukui n 885.9
0.11/0
00/0
N. Djouahra n 883.8
00/0
0.53/1
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Nacional

Nacional Goalkeeper

Nacional — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Renato Bellucci990810 min313.4 /90151.7 /9010.1 /90
Nacional — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Renato Bellucci n 890
3.47/6

Nacional Defensive

Nacional — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Zé Vitor985765 min151.8 /9080.9 /9060.7 /90475.5 /9091.1 /9010.1 /90
Matheus Dias880637 min60.8 /90121.7 /9040.6 /90243.4 /90111.6 /9030.4 /90
W. Kokolo774517 min111.9 /9050.9 /9000 /90213.7 /9071.2 /9020.3 /90
Francisco Gonçalves590450 min112.2 /9081.6 /9000 /90214.2 /9061.2 /9010.2 /90
Léo Santos581405 min51.1 /9051.1 /9030.7 /90245.3 /9061.3 /9000 /90
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Nacional — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Renato Bellucci n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
Zé Vitor n 884.4
1.25/3
0.53/1
José Fontán
Miguel Baeza n 872.5
0.32/0
0.93/2
—
Matheus Dias n 879.6
1.66/4
0.32/0
—
Stavros Gavriel n 845.3
12/1
1.73/3
N. Djouahra
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Nacional — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Zé Vitor n 884.4
1.68/4
Miguel Baeza n 872.5
0.63/1
Matheus Dias n 879.6
0.85/1
Stavros Gavriel n 845.3
2.55/3
W. Kokolo n 773.9
1.96/4
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Nacional Attacking

Nacional — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Pablo Ruan772506 min10.2 /9000 /9081.4 /9040.7 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
Daniel Júnior672433 min00 /9010.2 /9010.2 /9000 /9071.5 /9081.7 /90
A. Obando440160 min00 /9000 /9031.7 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9000 /90
N. Kader280159 min21.1 /9000 /9031.7 /9021.1 /9000 /9010.6 /90
Miguel Baeza972652 min20.3 /9000 /9071 /9050.7 /90101.4 /9010.1 /90
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Nacional — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Renato Bellucci n 890
00/0
00/0
Zé Vitor n 884.4
0.84/2
0.11/0
Miguel Baeza n 872.5
0.96/0
0.64/0
Matheus Dias n 879.6
0.42/1
0.11/0
Stavros Gavriel n 845.3
1.75/2
13/1
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Nacional — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Renato Bellucci n 890
00/0
00/0
Zé Vitor n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
Miguel Baeza n 872.5
0.21/0
00/0
Matheus Dias n 879.6
00/0
00/0
Stavros Gavriel n 845.3
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AroucaNacional
62%Possession38%
0.74Expected goals (xG)0.34
13Shots5
4Shots on target1
7Shots off target2
2Blocked shots2
7Shots inside the box4
8Corners2
0Offsides1
6Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Saves4
553Passes338

Arouca Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. van Ee9000001007
I. de Arruabarrena9000000006.9
N. Djouahra9000202006.9
José Fontán9000101007.4
O. Lebedenko90001111Y7.1
Javi Sánchez9000000007.2
Tiago Esgaio9000101206.4
Mateo Flores7500100306.5
A. Trezza7500101106.4
Barbero7100200106.3
T. Fukui5900000006.3
Pablo Gozálbez31001000Y6.3
D. Nandín1900221006.9
B. Mansilla1500001106.8
Lee Hyun-Ju1500111006.7

Nacional Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Zé Vitor9000100307
Matheus Dias9000000205
W. Kokolo9000100106.4
M. Jensen9000002306.8
Francisco Gonçalves9000001106.5
Renato Bellucci9000000007.4
Min-kyu Song8100000006.2
Miguel Baeza8100110005.9
N. Kader7100100106.6
C. Labidi7000000306.4
Stavros Gavriel7000100006.2
D. Dongmo20000000Y6.1
Matchoi Djaló20000000Y6
Pablo Ruan1900000006.4
A. Obando900000006.3
Daniel Júnior900000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arouca v Nacional — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AroucaLDWWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
NacionalLLLLW
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.8 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Arouca 4 · 0 draws · Nacional 0 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-02-21 Arouca 3–0 Nacional
  • 2025-09-20 Nacional 1–2 Arouca
  • 2025-02-01 Nacional 1–2 Arouca
  • 2024-08-25 Arouca 1–0 Nacional
League standing · 2026/27
Arouca#5 pos20 pts11 pl+5 GD
Nacional#16 pos7 pts10 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
Arouca scored1.18
Nacional scored1
Arouca conceded0.73
Nacional conceded1.9

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arouca v Nacional?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arouca v Nacional was Home win (best price 1.60 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Nacional?
In their last 4 meetings, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arouca and Nacional?
Recent form — Arouca 3W 1D 1L; Nacional 1W 0D 4L.

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