AD Ceuta FC v Castellón result

Full-time · AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Castellón

Segunda División · · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AD Ceuta FC · Castellón

The model’s pre-match pick

AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Castellón — this Segunda División match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4833 landed (95% range 76.2–78.5%); it had given them 74.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

AD Ceuta FC and Castellón drew 1–1 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Segunda División on Saturday 9 May. Castellón have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Castellón: F. Brignani (52’, assisted by Ronaldo); AD Ceuta FC: Marcos Fernández (87’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Marcos Fernández’s goal on 87 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Castellón out-shot AD Ceuta FC 18 to 8 and created the better chances, 2.49 xG to 1.48 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

D. Palencia showed six yellow cards — against 5.2 yellows a game across the last 16 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — AD Ceuta FC: Y. Didi (8’), A. Ahmed (48’), Jamelli (64’) and A. Tuhami (88’); Castellón: Alberto Jiménez (64’) and F. Brignani (86’).

What it changes

AD Ceuta FC stay 11th after this result (39 league matches played). AD Ceuta FC have scored 51 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 22 clubs (2025/26 so far). AD Ceuta FC have conceded 63 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 22 clubs.

Castellón move down from fourth to fifth (39 league matches played). Castellón have scored 70 goals, the fourth-most of the 22 clubs (2025/26 so far). Castellón have conceded 51 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 22 clubs.

AD Ceuta FC are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Marcos Fernández (AD Ceuta FC) 6.4, Ronaldo (Castellón) 6.1 and Lucas Alcázar (Castellón) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, AD Ceuta FC or Castellón (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.4% of the time in the last 90 days (3740 of 4833).

Next up

AD Ceuta FC next travel to Poblense on 29 October 2026.

Castellón next travel to Conquense on 29 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AD Ceuta FC: Poblense v AD Ceuta FC, Thursday 29 October — the preview. Next for Castellón: Conquense v Castellón, Thursday 29 October — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Castellón · Segunda División
  • Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube · Ceuta
  • Referee: D. Palencia
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): AD Ceuta FC 0 · draws 1 · Castellón 0 · 6 goals/game
  • Recent form: AD Ceuta FC 1W 3D 1L · Castellón 3W 1D 1L

AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Castellón (Segunda División): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 2
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
2.75 / 6.5
Corners
against 5.75 / 4 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.25 / 6.13
Shots on target
against 5.38 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.63 / 3.5
Cards
against 3.13 / 3.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5.19 yellows
Referee · D. Palencia
30.13 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 16 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAD Ceuta FC for / againstLineCastellón for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.25our book
2 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
2.75 for · 5.75 against n 8
9.5standard
6.5 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
10.25 for · 13.75 against n 8
19.5standard
15.75 for · 10.63 against n 8
Shots on target
3.25 for · 5.38 against n 8
8.5standard
6.13 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.88 for · 15.25 against n 8
21.5standard
16.38 for · 15.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.63 for · 3.13 against n 8
3.5standard
3.5 for · 3.25 against n 8

Referee: D. Palencia — 5.19 yellow cards a game, 0.25 red cards, 30.13 fouls over 16 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC Defensive

AD Ceuta FC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AD Ceuta FC before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Carlos Hernández n 889.8
0.85/1
0.63/2
Lucas Alcázar
Marcos Fernández n 890
1.96/6
0.84/2
Álex Calatrava
Y. Didi n 861.4
0.53/0
0.95/0
—
José Matos n 881.4
0.84/1
1.87/4
—
K. Koné n 875.8
1.86/5
1.85/5
—
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AD Ceuta FC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AD Ceuta FC before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Carlos Hernández n 889.8
0.94/3
Marcos Fernández n 890
0.94/2
Y. Didi n 861.4
1.55/2
José Matos n 881.4
1.15/2
K. Koné n 875.8
1.86/3
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AD Ceuta FC Attacking

AD Ceuta FC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AD Ceuta FC before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Carlos Hernández n 889.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
Marcos Fernández n 890
1.97/5
16/2
Y. Didi n 861.4
0.52/1
00/0
José Matos n 881.4
15/1
0.64/0
K. Koné n 875.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
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AD Ceuta FC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AD Ceuta FC before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Carlos Hernández n 889.8
00/0
00/0
Marcos Fernández n 890
0.54/0
0.11/0
Y. Didi n 861.4
00/0
00/0
José Matos n 881.4
00/0
00/0
K. Koné n 875.8
00/0
0.32/0
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Castellón

Castellón Defensive

Castellón — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Castellón before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Álex Calatrava n 887.8
2.28/6
1.46/3
Marcos Fernández
J. Mellot n 883.9
0.74/1
1.25/3
—
R. Matthys n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Alberto Jiménez n 888.1
0.53/1
2.87/6
—
Lucas Alcázar n 870.9
1.47/2
0.52/1
Carlos Hernández
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Castellón — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Castellón before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Álex Calatrava n 887.8
2.77/5
J. Mellot n 883.9
1.75/5
R. Matthys n 890
00/0
Alberto Jiménez n 888.1
2.37/6
Lucas Alcázar n 870.9
2.27/4
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Castellón Attacking

Castellón — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Castellón before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Álex Calatrava n 887.8
2.36/5
1.55/4
J. Mellot n 883.9
0.42/1
00/0
R. Matthys n 890
00/0
00/0
Alberto Jiménez n 888.1
0.53/1
0.32/0
Lucas Alcázar n 870.9
0.84/1
0.21/0
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Castellón — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Castellón before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Álex Calatrava n 887.8
0.84/1
0.11/0
J. Mellot n 883.9
00/0
00/0
R. Matthys n 890
00/0
00/0
Alberto Jiménez n 888.1
00/0
00/0
Lucas Alcázar n 870.9
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AD Ceuta FCCastellón
50%Possession50%
1.48Expected goals (xG)2.49
8Shots18
4Shots on target5
2Shots off target10
2Blocked shots3
6Shots inside the box15
6Corners6
3Offsides1
15Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
4Saves3
387Passes375
76%Pass accuracy80%

AD Ceuta FC Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Guille Vallejo9000000008.2
Carlos Hernández9000000107.6
Y. Bodiger9000100106.6
Kuki9000100006.3
Marcos Fernández9010111006.9
K. de La Fuente9000112106.3
Marino Illescas8400112206.9
A. Ahmed73000003Y7
Y. Didi73000002Y6.3
Jamelli73000011Y6.2
C. Redruello Nimo2700000206.9
Diego González sub6300000106.5
A. Tuhami sub17000001Y6.7
Campaña sub1700110207.3
Salvi sub1700000206.6
Gonzalo Almenara sub1300000006.9

Castellón Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Matthys9000000006.9
J. Mellot9000000308.2
F. Brignani90102101Y6.9
Lucas Alcázar9000101407.3
Beñat Gerenabarrena9000000307.2
Álex Calatrava9000513006.7
Alberto Jiménez81000001Y7.3
B. Cipenga8100213006.6
Ronaldo6701213207.2
A. Jakobsen6600213106.9
Pablo Santiago5600002206.7
A. Mabil sub3400101106.3
Ousmane Camara sub2400000306.7
Barri sub2300000006.3
A. Sienra sub900000006.3
Raúl Sánchez sub900000006.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AD Ceuta FC v Castellón — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AD Ceuta FCDLDDW
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
CastellónWDWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
AD Ceuta FC 0 · 1 draw · Castellón 0 · 6 goals/game
  • 2025-09-14 Castellón 3–3 AD Ceuta FC
League standing · 2025/26
AD Ceuta FC#11 pos61 pts42 pl-12 GD
Castellón#6 pos72 pts42 pl+19 GD
Goals per game
AD Ceuta FC scored1.21
Castellón scored1.67
AD Ceuta FC conceded1.5
Castellón conceded1.21

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AD Ceuta FC v Castellón?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AD Ceuta FC v Castellón was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between AD Ceuta FC and Castellón?
In their last 1 meetings, AD Ceuta FC won 0, Castellón won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 6 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AD Ceuta FC and Castellón?
Recent form — AD Ceuta FC 1W 3D 1L; Castellón 3W 1D 1L.

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