BahiaMirassol

Bahia v Mirassol result

Full-time · Bahia 1–0 Mirassol

Serie A – Brazil · · Arena Fonte Nova

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bahia · Mirassol

The model’s pre-match pick

Bahia 1–0 Mirassol — Bahia won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.65 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 589 of 917 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Bahia beat Mirassol 1–0 at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 11 October.

The goals

Bahia led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bahia: Luciano Juba (38’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Luciano Juba’s goal on 38 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Bahia 3.15, Mirassol 1.82, from 16 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil showed five yellow cards — against 4.7 yellows a game across the last 17 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Bahia: Jean Lucas (63’); Mirassol: Chico Kim (35’), Walter (36’), Carlos Eduardo (78’) and Neto Moura (90+3’).

What it changes

Bahia move up from sixth to fifth (30 league matches played). Bahia have scored 44 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far, after 30 games, ranked per game). Bahia have conceded 36 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Mirassol move down from 13th to 15th (30 league matches played). Mirassol have scored 34 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far, after 30 games, ranked per game). Mirassol have conceded 44 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Luciano Juba (Bahia) 6.3, Rodrigo Nestor (Bahia) 5.4 and Erick Pulga (Bahia) 5.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Bahia next travel to Gremio on 19 November 2026.

Mirassol next host Atletico-MG on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bahia: Gremio v Bahia, Thursday 19 November — the preview. Next for Mirassol: Mirassol v Atletico-MG, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bahia 1–0 Mirassol · Serie A – Brazil
  • Venue: Arena Fonte Nova · Salvador, Bahia
  • Referee: Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Bahia 1 · draws 1 · Mirassol 1 · 3.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bahia 3W 0D 2L · Mirassol 2W 2D 1L

Bahia 1–0 Mirassol (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 4 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.38 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5 / 5.29
Corners
against 6 / 6.86 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.88 / 4.57
Shots on target
against 5.13 / 5.71 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.38 / 2.57
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.86 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.71 yellows
Referee · Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil
30.59 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 17 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 9 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBahia for / againstLineMirassol for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
3our book
1.13 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 6 against n 8
9.5standard
5.29 for · 6.86 against n 7
Shots
14.88 for · 15.75 against n 8
19.5standard
12.86 for · 16.86 against n 7
Shots on target
4.88 for · 5.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4.57 for · 5.71 against n 7
Fouls committed
12.75 for · 12 against n 8
21.5standard
11.14 for · 10.71 against n 7
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.57 for · 1.86 against n 7

Referee: Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil — 4.71 yellow cards a game, 0.12 red cards, 30.59 fouls over 17 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bahia

Bahia Goalkeeper

Bahia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Ronaldo20891788 min693.5 /90160.8 /9000 /90
Leo Vieira1187954 min413.9 /90171.6 /9000 /90
Joao Paulo25099 min65.5 /9065.5 /9000 /90
Bahia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Ronaldo n 890.9
3.86/4
Leo Vieira n 885.5
3.67/5

Bahia Defensive

Bahia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Luciano Juba28852366 min381.4 /90291.1 /9050.2 /90853.2 /90180.7 /9050.2 /90
Santiago Ramos Mingo25922301 min120.5 /90321.3 /90281.1 /90783.1 /90180.7 /9030.1 /90
David Duarte23912094 min241 /90271.2 /90180.8 /901165 /90190.8 /9040.2 /90
Román Gómez14811138 min262.1 /90221.7 /9060.5 /90695.5 /90201.6 /9030.2 /90
Gilberto866526 min81.4 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90142.4 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
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Bahia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Erick Pulga n 880
16/1
27/6
Alesson
Nicolás Acevedo n 882.8
2.28/5
1.56/4
—
Luciano Juba n 881.5
0.43/0
0.73/1
Reinaldo
Jean Lucas n 855
1.85/2
14/1
—
Santiago Ramos Mingo n 891.6
0.63/1
0.74/2
—
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Bahia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 880
0.32/0
Nicolás Acevedo n 882.8
2.47/5
Luciano Juba n 881.5
1.86/3
Jean Lucas n 855
0.83/1
Santiago Ramos Mingo n 891.6
00/0
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Bahia Attacking

Bahia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Erick Pulga30712115 min30.1 /9020.1 /90311.3 /90150.6 /90210.9 /90421.8 /90
Ademir25421057 min00 /9010.1 /90151.3 /9070.6 /9090.8 /90171.4 /90
Cristian Olivera24661581 min10.1 /9020.1 /90271.5 /90191.1 /90281.6 /90231.3 /90
Willian Jose20601207 min40.3 /9010.1 /90181.3 /9090.7 /90211.6 /9050.4 /90
Everaldo1747795 min40.5 /9000 /90171.9 /9080.9 /9070.8 /9030.3 /90
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Bahia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 880
2.16/5
1.15/2
Nicolás Acevedo n 882.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
Luciano Juba n 881.5
0.63/1
0.63/1
Jean Lucas n 855
1.46/1
0.42/0
Santiago Ramos Mingo n 891.6
0.22/0
0.22/0
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Bahia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 880
0.42/1
0.11/0
Nicolás Acevedo n 882.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
Luciano Juba n 881.5
0.32/0
00/0
Jean Lucas n 855
0.42/0
0.21/0
Santiago Ramos Mingo n 891.6
00/0
00/0
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Mirassol

Mirassol Goalkeeper

Mirassol — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Walter31912807 min953 /90391.3 /9000 /90
Alex Muralha984760 min263.1 /9091.1 /9000 /90
Thomazella293186 min10.5 /9041.9 /9000 /90
Mirassol — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Walter n 880
3.96/4

Mirassol Defensive

Mirassol — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Joao Victor37893311 min270.7 /90300.8 /90411.1 /901484 /90250.7 /9030.1 /90
Reinaldo33892928 min280.9 /90140.4 /9080.2 /90872.7 /90170.5 /9060.2 /90
Igor Formiga32852711 min893 /90592 /90120.4 /902016.7 /90491.6 /9040.1 /90
Willian Machado30922759 min381.2 /90341.1 /90270.9 /901444.7 /90240.8 /9050.2 /90
Lucas Oliveira16741177 min211.6 /90131 /90120.9 /90423.2 /9080.6 /9050.4 /90
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Mirassol — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Joao Victor n 884.9
0.42/1
0.32/0
—
Reinaldo n 892.6
0.43/0
0.64/1
Luciano Juba
Alesson n 866.5
1.97/3
2.27/3
Erick Pulga
Igor Formiga n 889.5
1.46/3
0.43/0
—
Walter n 880
00/0
0.42/1
—
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Mirassol — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joao Victor n 884.9
0.84/2
Reinaldo n 892.6
0.53/1
Alesson n 866.5
2.48/3
Igor Formiga n 889.5
2.98/5
Willian Machado n 890
1.36/2
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Mirassol Attacking

Mirassol — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Alesson33652149 min10 /9080.3 /90331.4 /90180.8 /90351.5 /90411.7 /90
Edson Carioca27561524 min40.2 /9010.1 /90271.6 /90120.7 /90201.2 /90291.7 /90
Andre Luis2143899 min20.2 /9000 /90111.1 /9050.5 /9060.6 /9030.3 /90
Carlos Eduardo1949936 min10.1 /9020.2 /9090.9 /9010.1 /9060.6 /90181.7 /90
Bruno Santos14831164 min40.3 /9000 /90201.5 /9080.6 /9080.6 /9090.7 /90
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Mirassol — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Joao Victor n 884.9
0.54/0
0.32/0
Reinaldo n 892.6
0.94/2
0.42/1
Alesson n 866.5
1.24/1
0.32/0
Igor Formiga n 889.5
1.15/3
0.54/0
Walter n 880
00/0
00/0
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Mirassol — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Joao Victor n 884.9
0.11/0
00/0
Reinaldo n 892.6
00/0
0.11/0
Alesson n 866.5
00/0
0.21/0
Igor Formiga n 889.5
00/0
0.53/1
Walter n 880
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BahiaMirassol
53%Possession47%
3.15Expected goals (xG)1.82
16Shots10
2Shots on target2
12Shots off target5
2Blocked shots3
12Shots inside the box8
6Corners2
1Offsides1
13Fouls16
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
2Saves1
507Passes457

Bahia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Ronaldo9000000007.4
David Duarte9000200108
Marco Moreno9000100107.6
Luciano Juba9010212008
Jean Lucas90002000Y6.3
Erick Pulga9000202306.7
Alejo Véliz8700302106.4
Rodrigo Nestor7200203607.2
Cristian Olivera7200113206.5
Marcos Victor5900000207.7
Caio Alexandre5900000107.2
Román Gómez3100000107.5
Erick3100000006.8
Everton Ribeiro1800001107
Ademir1800100106.4
Willian Jose300000006.5

Mirassol Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Walter90000000Y6.5
Igor Formiga9000001107
Lucas Oliveira9000000206.4
Willian Machado9000000107
Reinaldo9000302106.3
Neto Moura90000003Y6.6
Denilson7200111306.9
Bruno Santos6700101006
Alesson4500000006.2
Gustavo Silva4500000006.2
Chico Kim45000001Y6.6
Shaylon4500001006.8
Edson Carioca4500310006.3
Eduardo4500000006.8
Andre Luis2300200006.7
Carlos Eduardo18000000Y6.1

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bahia v Mirassol — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BahiaWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
MirassolLWDWD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Bahia 1 · 1 draw · Mirassol 1 · 3.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-11 Mirassol 1–2 Bahia
  • 2025-08-31 Mirassol 5–1 Bahia
  • 2025-04-13 Bahia 1–1 Mirassol
League standing · 2026
Bahia#6 pos53 pts34 pl+5 GD
Mirassol#14 pos40 pts34 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
Bahia scored1.47
Mirassol scored1.15
Bahia conceded1.32
Mirassol conceded1.41

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bahia v Mirassol?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bahia v Mirassol was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.65 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
In their last 3 meetings, Bahia won 1, Mirassol won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bahia and Mirassol?
Recent form — Bahia 3W 0D 2L; Mirassol 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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