Corinthians v Mirassol prediction

Serie A – Brazil · Fri, 30 Oct 2026 23:00 GMT · Neo Química Arena

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 04:03 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Corinthians v Mirassol, Serie A – Brazil on Fri, 30 Oct 2026 23:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 2.00 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 478 of 727 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Corinthians host Mirassol in Serie A – Brazil on Friday 30 October (kick-off 23:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Corinthians are winless in their last 11 matches in all competitions. Corinthians have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Corinthians’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Corinthians’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Corinthians have one win, one draw and five defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.57 points per game, scoring 0.71 and conceding 1.43. Corinthians have scored 34 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Corinthians have conceded 42 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Four of Mirassol’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in nine of Mirassol’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Mirassol have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 1.25. Mirassol have scored 37 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Mirassol have conceded 45 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Corinthians (18th) and Mirassol (15th) are four points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Mirassol the stronger side, 206 rating points above Corinthians (Mirassol 1609, Corinthians 1404, after at least 70 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians.

Team news

Corinthians have nine names on the availability list: A. Carrillo (out, Inactive), Alex Santana (out, Inactive), Gabriel Paulista (out, Inactive), J. Lingard (out, Yellow Cards), Kayke (out, Knee Injury), M. Depay (out, Inactive) and three more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. Predicted Corinthians XI (4-2-3-1): H. Souza, Matheuzinho, G. Henrique, M. Bidu, F. Angileri, B. Bidon, R. Garro, Andre, Allan, Dieguinho, Y. Alberto — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Matheus Bidu (3.7 per match over 38 appearances, four goals and two assists) and Rodrigo Garro (3.5 per match over 42 appearances, three goals and 12 assists) have been Corinthians’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Corinthians (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Matheus Bidu averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 3209 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances. Rodrigo Garro averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 3117 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Mirassol have two names on the availability list: Negueba (out, Knee Injury) and Jose Aldo (doubtful, Muscle Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. Predicted Mirassol XI (4-3-3): Walter, Reinaldo, I. Formiga, W. Machado, J. Victor, Denilson, N. Moura, Eduardo, B. Santos, A. Luis, Fernandinho — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Igor Formiga (5.3 per match over 36 appearances, four goals and six assists) and Negueba (3.6 per match over 11 appearances, two goals) have been Mirassol’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Mirassol (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Igor Formiga averages 2.9 tackles per 90 over 2991 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Negueba averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 983 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 23:00 GMT · Serie A – Brazil · Neo Química Arena
Referee: Matheus Delgado Candancan
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Corinthians 1 · draws 0 · Mirassol 2 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Corinthians 0W 1D 4L · Mirassol 2W 2D 1L

Corinthians v Mirassol (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25

Goals

against 2.13 / 1 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.25 / 5.75

Corners

against 5.5 / 6.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 6.5 / 4.88 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

3.13 / 2.63

Cards

against 2.88 / 2.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 24 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 24 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Corinthians for / against	Line	Mirassol for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.25 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.75 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.25 for · 16.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	15.63 for · 15.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.13 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.63 for · 17 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.38 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3.13 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.63 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5

Corinthians

Corinthians Goalkeeper

Corinthians — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Hugo Souza	41	923766 min	1102.6 /90	390.9 /90	20 /90
Kauê	5	90450 min	214.2 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90

Corinthians — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	4.3 7/7

Corinthians Defensive

Corinthians — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gustavo Henrique	41	913732 min	360.9 /90	360.9 /90	280.7 /90	1644 /90	320.8 /90	60.1 /90
Matheuzinho	39	893490 min	872.2 /90	471.2 /90	60.2 /90	1574 /90	381 /90	80.2 /90
Matheus Bidu	37	863198 min	601.7 /90	391.1 /90	110.3 /90	2176.1 /90	381.1 /90	50.1 /90
Gabriel Paulista	36	903230 min	270.8 /90	441.2 /90	140.4 /90	1343.7 /90	200.6 /90	80.2 /90
Fabrizio Angileri	12	80958 min	272.5 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	545.1 /90	90.8 /90	40.4 /90
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Corinthians — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.7 4/1	0.5 3/1	—
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	1.5 7/3	2.8 7/4	—
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	1 4/2	2.8 7/5	—
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	1.2 6/3	1.1 6/2	—
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Corinthians — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.5 3/1
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	1.2 6/2
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	1.8 5/3
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	3.5 8/6
Matheus Bidu n 8	80.9	1.5 5/4
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Corinthians Attacking

Corinthians — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Yuri Alberto	28	812281 min	60.2 /90	30.1 /90	532.1 /90	281.1 /90	240.9 /90	210.8 /90
M. Depay	17	691171 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	181.4 /90	80.6 /90	161.2 /90	110.8 /90
Pedro Raul	16	54861 min	20.2 /90	10.1 /90	161.7 /90	80.8 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90
Vitinho	10	52520 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	71.2 /90	30.5 /90	71.2 /90	81.4 /90
Zakaria Labyad	10	36361 min	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	82 /90	41 /90	123 /90	00 /90
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Corinthians — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.6 4/1	0.6 4/1
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	1.3 5/3	0.4 3/0
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	0.5 2/1	0.3 1/1
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	1 4/2	0.3 2/0
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Corinthians — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Mirassol

Mirassol Goalkeeper

Mirassol — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
Walter	34	913077 min	1013 /90	391.1 /90
Alex Muralha	9	84760 min	263.1 /90	91.1 /90
Thomazella	2	93186 min	10.5 /90	41.9 /90

Mirassol — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Walter n 8	85.6	3.7 6/4

Mirassol Defensive

Mirassol — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Joao Victor	39	903491 min	280.7 /90	310.8 /90	451.2 /90	1564 /90	260.7 /90	30.1 /90
Reinaldo	36	893198 min	300.8 /90	160.5 /90	110.3 /90	932.6 /90	210.6 /90	60.2 /90
Igor Formiga	35	852981 min	942.8 /90	652 /90	120.4 /90	2246.8 /90	501.5 /90	40.1 /90
Willian Machado	33	923029 min	411.2 /90	371.1 /90	280.8 /90	1654.9 /90	280.8 /90	60.2 /90
Lucas Oliveira	17	751267 min	231.6 /90	141 /90	120.9 /90	453.2 /90	80.6 /90	50.4 /90
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Mirassol — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Joao Victor n 8	84.8	0.5 3/1	0.5 3/1	—
Reinaldo n 8	91.3	0.6 2/1	0.7 5/1	—
Alesson n 8	61.8	1.8 6/3	2.7 7/3	—
Igor Formiga n 8	88.1	0.5 4/0	0.6 4/1	—
Walter n 8	85.6	0 0/0	0.3 1/1	—
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Mirassol — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Joao Victor n 8	84.8	0.8 4/2
Reinaldo n 8	91.3	0.5 4/0
Alesson n 8	61.8	1.5 6/1
Igor Formiga n 8	88.1	2.8 8/5
Willian Machado n 8	88.6	1.4 7/2
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Mirassol Attacking

Mirassol — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Alesson	36	642313 min	10 /90	80.3 /90	371.4 /90	190.7 /90	391.5 /90	461.8 /90
Edson Carioca	30	581727 min	40.2 /90	20.1 /90	331.7 /90	130.7 /90	261.4 /90	301.6 /90
Andre Luis	23	41938 min	30.3 /90	00 /90	141.3 /90	60.6 /90	60.6 /90	40.4 /90
Carlos Eduardo	21	47977 min	10.1 /90	20.2 /90	90.8 /90	10.1 /90	70.6 /90	191.8 /90
Bruno Santos	17	811372 min	40.3 /90	00 /90	261.7 /90	110.7 /90	100.7 /90	110.7 /90
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Mirassol — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Joao Victor n 8	84.8	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0
Reinaldo n 8	91.3	1.5 5/4	0.4 3/0
Alesson n 8	61.8	1.8 5/3	0.5 3/0
Igor Formiga n 8	88.1	1.3 6/3	0.5 4/0
Walter n 8	85.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Mirassol — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Mirassol before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Joao Victor n 8	84.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
Reinaldo n 8	91.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
Alesson n 8	61.8	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Igor Formiga n 8	88.1	0 0/0	0.4 2/1
Walter n 8	85.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Corinthians v Mirassol — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

CorinthiansLLLDL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 1.2 scored / 2.6 conceded per game

MirassolWDLWD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Corinthians 1 · 0 draws · Mirassol 2 · 3 goals/game

2026-05-03 Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians
2025-10-05 Corinthians 3–0 Mirassol
2025-05-10 Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians

League standing · 2026

Corinthians#18 pos33 pts32 pl-8 GD

Mirassol#15 pos37 pts32 pl-8 GD

Goals per game

Corinthians scored1.06

Mirassol scored1.16

Corinthians conceded1.31

Mirassol conceded1.41

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Corinthians v Mirassol?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Corinthians v Mirassol is Over 2.5 goals (best price 2.00 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Mirassol?: In their last 3 meetings, Corinthians won 1, Mirassol won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Corinthians and Mirassol?: Recent form — Corinthians 0W 1D 4L; Mirassol 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 04:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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